April 16, 2021 at 4:54 am #1204203441
On Spencer being written by Knight, his track record is mildly concerning but there are some gems in there and there’s plenty of cases of screenwriters with worse track records writing a great film. Also, I think Larrain is a really good director for not relying on dialogue or overly writerly scripts, especially in Jackie where the script is not particularly special and little of the dialogue is notable in comparison to Portman’s incredibly powerful performance which shines in the quieter moments Larrain sensibly gives her plenty of. He’s shown he can direct a powerhouse biopic performance. Jackie also had a screenwriter with a worse track record than Knight, so I wouldn’t be too concerned for Spencer and Larrain because of that.April 16, 2021 at 4:59 am #1204203448
He’s shown he can direct a powerhouse biopic performance. Jackie also had a screenwriter with a worse track record than Knight, so I wouldn’t be too concerned for Spencer and Larrain because of that.
The thing with Jackie vs Spencer is that Portman was well-established at the Oscars and a previous winner so could overcome the muted reception to the film and the fact its only other noms were Costume and Score. This will be Stewart’s Oscar breakout and if the film isn’t well-received she could miss.April 16, 2021 at 5:17 am #1204203455
Since there aren’t any updates as to when The Next Goal Wins will be released and following the allegations made against Armie Hammer, I think it’ll probably be postponed. Here are my updated predictions. APRIL PREDICTIONS PICTURE 1. The Power of the Dog 2. Last Night in Soho 3. House of Gucci 4. Don’t Worry Darling 5. The French Dispatch 6. Nightmare Alley 7. Passing 8. Soggy Bottom 9. Eternals 10. In The Heights DIRECTOR 1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog 2. Edgar Wright, Last Night in Soho 3. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci 4. Olivia Wilde, Don’t Worry Darling 5. Robert Eggers, The Northman ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 1. Edgar Wright & Krysty Wilson-Cairns, Last Night in Soho 2. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch 3. Katie Silberman & Van Dyke Brothers, Don’t Worry Darling 4. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom 5. Paul Schrader, The Card Counter ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog 2. Guillermo Del Toro & Kim Morgan, Nightmare Alley 3. Robert Bentivegna, House of Gucci 4. Rebecca Hall, Passing 5. Maggie Gyllenhaal & Elena Ferrante, The Lost Daughter LEAD ACTOR 1. Adam Driver, Annette 2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog 3. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley 4. Anthony Ramos, In The Heights 5. Oscar Isaac, The Card Counter LEAD ACTRESS 1. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog 2. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci 3. Tessa Thompson, Passing 4. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling 5. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter SUPPORTING ACTOR 1. Willem Dafoe, The Card Counter 2. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom 3. Al Pacino, House of Gucci 4. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog 5. Richard Jenkins, Nightmare Alley SUPPORTING ACTRESS 1. Ruth Negga, Passing 2. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel 3. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley 4. Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho 5. Marion Cotillard, Annette SCORE 1. Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog 2. Steven Price, Last Night in Soho 3. Alexandre Desplat, Nightmare Alley 4. Hildur Gudnadottir, Amsterdam 5. Ramin Djawadi, Eternals CINEMATOGRAPHY 1. Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley 2. Jarin Blaschke, The Northman 3. Ben Davis, Eternals 4. Dariusz Wolski, The Last Duel 5. Emmanuel Lubezki, Amsterdam FILM EDITING 1. Paul Machliss, Last Night in Soho 2. Andrew Weisblum, The French Dispatch 3. Dylan Tichenor, Eternals 4. Peter Sciberras, The Power of The Dog 5. Joe Walker, Dune PRODUCTION DESIGN 1. Adam Stockhausen & Rena DeAngelo, The French Dispatch 2. Arthur Max, House of Gucci 3. Florencia Martin, Soggy Bottom 4. Marcus Rowland, Last Night in Soho 5. Tamara Deverell & Shane Deveau, Nightmare Alley COSTUME DESIGN 1. Janty Yates, House of Gucci 2. Odile Dicks-Mireaux, Last Night in Soho 3. J.R. Hawbawker & Albert Wolsky, Amsterdam 4. Alexandra Byrne & Sammy Sheldon, Eternals 5. Milena Canonero, The French Dispatch MAKE-UP & HAIRSTYLING 1. Soggy Bottom 2. House of Gucci 3. The Last Duel 4. The French Dispatch 5. Last Night in Soho SOUND 1. In The Heights 2. Last Night in Soho 3. Dune 4. No Time To Die 5. Mission Impossible VII VISUAL EFFECTS 1. Dune 2. Godzilla vs Kong 3. Mission Impossible VII 4. Eternals 5. No Time To Die ORIGINAL SONG 1. No Time To Die 2. In The Heights 3. Annette 4. Encanto 5. Last Night in Soho ANIMATED FEATURE 1. Encanto 2. Luca 3. Raya and The Last Dragon 4. The Boss Baby: Family Business 5. Sing 2
Supporting Actress-Olga Merediz for In the Heights. She gets the best song and it’ll resonate. She was awesome in the stage version. I love her solo “ Pacencia y Fe”. Also her character is very important to the story. I think Merediz could win.April 16, 2021 at 5:24 am #1204203463
I also can’t see In The Heights maintaining momentum all the way from June to awards season, but it could be THE box office hit of the summer which may help it.
That said, Lin Manuel Miranda does seem like a shoo-in for the missing piece of his PEGOT.April 16, 2021 at 7:46 am #1204203628
That said, Lin Manuel Miranda does seem like a shoo-in for the missing piece of his PEGOT.
I think it’s too premature to call Lin Manuel Miranda a shoo-in to win Original Song in April 2021 when it’s such a competitive field. Especially with all the other musicals and No Time To Die having the advantage of more recency.
I do think he’ll get nominated though.
FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")April 16, 2021 at 9:18 am #1204203765
I think House of Gucci will be amazing for the sole reason of Adam Driver, because that man has been on a role with the movies and roles he chooses.April 16, 2021 at 11:53 am #1204204134
Kristen will miss. Everyone will be drawing parallels to Emma Corrin.
If she’s great, she won’t miss.April 16, 2021 at 12:45 pm #1204204221
I think its nice that we are talking about In the Heights. I personally have it on my Oscar predictions for a number of reasons.
The movie is the Academy’s cup of tea. It’s a crowd pleaser with still a lot of heart and emotions. The show can be very sad but it has a very uplifting ending.
The film will play into the diversity push at the Academy with the entire cast I believe being POC, along with the director and writers.
Speaking of which, Jon M. Chu did already do Crazy Rich Asians and while that didn’t get into the Oscars it still was a major player during awards season. That film did play into the diversity push and it was good. The reason why I believe the film didn’t make it to the Oscars was because of the subject matter not being the Academy’s forte. This film is about immigrants trying to make it in the world of crime, death, poverty, but still a lot of spirit. That might just give it the boost that Crazy Rich Asians was missing
Finally, I think Warner Bros. will push this film, even if it does have a June release date. This isn’t some indie drama. This is a big budget Lin-Manuel Miranda film that I feel will get a lot of attention. I mean besides Dune there’s not many movies I see Warner Bros. pushing for Oscar noms.
Just because it has a June release date doesn’t mean its dead. Sure it hurts but there tends to be at least one film that makes it in from the summer. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Blackkklansman, Dunkirk, Hell or High Water all came out in August or July, and films like Mad Max Fury Road, Grand Budapest Hotel, Black Panther, and Get Out were all even earlier. It’s all about what holds it back and what pushes it forward. I think In the Heights has more pushing it forward.
Now the catergories I think it can get into are: BP, Actor (Ramos), S. Actress (Merediz), Director (Chu), Cinematography, Editing, Song, Production Design, and Sound.
These catergories may not be on my list but are definitely in contention. Ramos and Merediz have great songs, are funny, have crying scenes, and are the heart of the film. Cinematography, PD, and Sound are based on the trailer. Editing seems like it could be seriously something important to the film. Director is definitely the least likely out of all of these but I could still see happening.
If you made it this far, then thanks for reading.April 16, 2021 at 12:57 pm #1204204238
This narrative of HoG being bad from, what, 2 scenes being overheard from a distance? The narrative is so weird to me. Wait for a trailer to at least judge it… cinematography and editing play a huge role.April 16, 2021 at 1:07 pm #1204204245
If she’s great, she won’t miss.
A very big IF
FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")April 16, 2021 at 1:14 pm #1204204252
In the Heights is lucky Best Picture is guaranteed 10 slots from now on. It makes sense for the film to be the populist choice to get in PGA then the Oscars with a lot of techs.
Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.April 16, 2021 at 1:38 pm #1204204283
Kristen is more Naomi Watts Diana than Emma CorrinApril 17, 2021 at 3:43 am #1204205011
This narrative of HoG being bad from, what, 2 scenes being overheard from a distance? The narrative is so weird to me. Wait for a trailer to at least judge it… cinematography and editing play a huge role.
There has actually been a lot of overconfidence for it if you look at past threads. The accents is the only “negativity” I’ve seen so far. Others have brought up Scott not being consistent when it comes to the quality of his films in recent years, but the script is more important, especially when the writer of HoG is an unknown.April 17, 2021 at 7:19 am #1204205159
Just watched a screening for In the Heights. Of course it is way too early to say, but I need for Olga Merediz to receive a nomination for *that* scene. There’s a reason she was also nominated for a Tony for her role in the Broadway production. Simple remarkable. Also, all around a lovely movie. I think you all will enjoy it very much. I need to think some more about how well this will do at the Oscars, but I think audiences will absolutely love this movie. You do not have to be a musical buff to watch this, so I feel the universality will benefit this film a bunch. I’ll probably say more once more of the general audience watches this soon, but wow. I loved it.
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