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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 6)

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    schmids
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    #1204209278

    If the film does well at Cannes (which I suspect it will) that it does have a shot. I think as Vanessa Kirby’s Volpi Cup win last year showed, even having some sort of festival buzz during the pandemic can really boost your chances. It will be interesting to see how much release dates play a factor this year with the shortened season. Annette‘s release date of course is friendlier than In the Heights for example.

    It’s definitely a friendlier release date than In the Heights, though I guess In the Heights will do huge box office and has much friendlier material!

    The closest comparison I can think of for this would be when The Tree of Life ended up getting into Director and BP. I know Carax is not Malick, but ToL came out in July and was inaccessible as hell.

    I anticipate that there will be a lot of love for Driver and Cotillard in this even if the film doesn’t land – it does seem to be more of a Driver vehicle, sure, and so he’ll probably get most of the coverage. I’m probably a bit biased as basically as soon as this was announced I was dying to see the results of a Driver x Carax collaboration, but from the trailer he seems to have gone all-in and I am here for it.

    I’d rather Driver get nominated for something original, unconventional and weird like Annette instead of House of Gucci.

    This. Driver is a pretty unconventional actor and it feels like this is the kind of project he should be rewarded for.

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    Magnus
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    #1204209286

    Picture:
    The Power of the Dog
    The French Dispatch
    Nightmare Alley
    The Tragedy of Macbeth
    In The Heights
    Last Night in Soho
    Next Goal Wins
    Soggy Bottom
    Dune
    Mass

    Director:
    Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
    Guillermo Del Toro, Nightmare Alley
    Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
    Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
    Denis Villeneuve, Dune

    Actress:
    Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
    Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
    Ana de Armas, Blonde
    Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
    Martha Plimpton, Mass

    Actor:
    Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
    Adam Driver, Annette
    Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins
    Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
    Anthony Ramos, In The Heights

    Supporting Actress:
    Diana Rigg, Last Night in Soho
    Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
    Elisabeth Moss, Next Goal Wins
    Ann Dowd, Mass
    Olga Merediz, In The Heights

    Supporting Actor:
    Willem Dafoe, The Card Counter
    Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
    Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
    Idris Elba, The Harder They Fall
    Michael Shannon, Amsterdam

    Original Screenplay:
    Last Night in Soho
    Mass
    The French Dispatch
    Soggy Bottom
    Nine Days

    Adapted Screenplay:
    The Power of the Dog
    Nightmare Alley
    The Tragedy of Macbeth
    Next Goal Wins
    The Last Duel

    Cinematography:
    Nightmare Alley
    The Tragedy of Macbeth
    In The Heights
    Dune
    The French Dispatch

    Film Editing:
    Last Night in Soho
    Nightmare Alley
    In The Heights
    Next Goal Wins
    Dune

    Production Design:
    The French Dispatch
    Dune
    In The Heights
    Nightmare Alley
    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Costume Design:
    Nightmare Alley
    Dune
    The French Dispatch
    House of Gucci
    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Original Score:
    Dune
    Annette
    The Power of the Dog
    The French Dispatch
    Nightmare Alley

    Sound:
    Dune
    Last Night in Soho
    A Quiet Place: Part II
    In The Heights
    Annette

    Visual Effects:
    Dune
    Eternals
    Godzilla vs. Kong
    Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
    A Quiet Place: Part II

    Makeup and Hairstyling:
    Blonde
    Dune
    The French Dispatch
    House of Gucci
    Cruella

    Animated Feature:
    Encanto
    Raya and the Last Dragon
    Flee
    Luca
    Pinocchio

    Original Song:
    No Time to Die, No Time to Die
    TBA, In The Heights
    TBA, Encanto
    TBA, Annette
    TBA, Annette

    2022 Awards FYC:
    Shiva Baby (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress - Rachel Sennott, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Score)
    Summer of Soul (Best Picture, Best Documentary Feature)
    Zola (Best Supporting Actor - Colman Domingo)
    Cruella (Best Costume Design)

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    schmids
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    #1204209781

    Original Song: No Time to Die, No Time to Die TBA, In The Heights TBA, Encanto TBA, Annette TBA, Annette

    Seems so wild to think about No Time to Die potentially winning an Oscar nearly two years after it was released as a single.

    If Annette gets Song noms you think they’ll manage to get Driver to perform at the Oscars? I reckon he might just let Sparks do it, or if not he does it in character like Eugene Levy and Catherine O’Hara did.

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    wolfali
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    #1204209800

    I think if Rigg does end up being a contender, Focus will submit Taylor-Joy in lead and she’ll overshadow Thomasin McKenzie in buzz.

    It’s definitely a friendlier release date than In the Heights, though I guess In the Heights will do huge box office and has much friendlier material!

    Of course! Although I m sceptical about <i>In the Heights </i>having a huge box office. Domestically maybe but in the UK and in some of Europe cinemas are just starting to open up and there are still restrictions on the amount of people who can attend in door gatherings.

    It’s also not like In the Heights and Godzilla vs Kong have the same audience.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    fefface
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    #1204209821

    If Annette gets Song noms you think they’ll manage to get Driver to perform at the Oscars? I reckon he might just let Sparks do it, or if not he does it in character like Eugene Levy and Catherine O’Hara did.

    If it gets Song nominations for a song he and Marion perform together (I am assuming there are some lmao) then perhaps they will do it together. If not I reckon yeah he’ll get Russell from Sparks to do it. Or maybe he would do it in character – there’s a Popcorn interview with Peter Travers from when he was promoting Marriage Story where he talks about finding it much easier to sing as a character than as himself.

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    RIDLEY SCOTT
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    #1204209836

    Scott Rudin retired and All Broadway is destroying him. I still think Denzel could win his 3rd Oscar. His role is incredible. This could be One of The Greatest Performances Of All Time

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    Chloe Sevigny stan <3
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    #1204209846

    To the person who said they’ve read the Macbeth script, do you think Frances will go lead and is her material good?

    Emmy FYC!!: Chloe Sevigny (We Are Who We Are), MJ Rodriguez (Pose), Billy Porter (Pose), Emma Corrin (The Crown), Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale), Maya Erskine (Pen15), Anna Konkle (Pen15), Naomi Ackie (Master of None), Thuso Mbedu (The Underground Railroad), Kate Winslet (Mare of Easttown), Michaela Coel (I May Destroy You)

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    SN
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    #1204209858

    Of course! Although I m sceptical about <i>In the Heights </i>having a huge box office. Domestically maybe but in the UK and in some of Europe cinemas are just starting to open up and there are still restrictions on the amount of people who can attend in door gatherings.

    It’s also not like In the Heights and Godzilla vs Kong have the same audience.

    Under normal circumstances, In the Heights would’ve had a lot of box office potential domestically. It’s a crowdpleasing musical (La La Land, The Greatest Showman, Hamilton) with a minority-driven cast (Crazy Rich Asians). It doesn’t need the same audience as GvK to be successful.

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    wolfali
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    #1204209892

    Under normal circumstances, In the Heights would’ve had a lot of box office potential domestically. It’s a crowdpleasing musical (La La Land, The Greatest Showman, Hamilton) with a minority-driven cast (Crazy Rich Asians). It doesn’t need the same audience as GvK to be successful.

    Of course and it probably would have been a huge commercial success like Crazy Rich Asians. I was more saying that I don’t expect it to have such a high box office. Not everything can pull a Godzilla vs Kong in this climate (or at least right now).

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    RIDLEY SCOTT
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    #1204209895

    To the person who said they’ve read the Macbeth script, do you think Frances will go lead and is her material good?

    Her role is very important but way shorter than Denzel. Kind of similar of Viola Davis in FENCES

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    crabbie
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    #1204209910

    Denzel and Frances winning their 3rd acting Oscar for Macbeth would be so iconic.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    fefface
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    #1204209916

    Denzel and Frances winning their 3rd acting Oscar for Macbeth would be so iconic.

    Am I the only one who thinks it would be kinda boring to reward actors who already have multiple Oscars for playing roles that have been played multiple times before?

    Like obviously they’re going to be great but there are so many more original and interesting films coming out this year.

    On a related note Red, White and Water is apparently about to start reshoots.

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    crabbie
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    #1204209923

    Am I the only one who thinks it would be kinda boring to reward actors who already have multiple Oscars for playing roles that have been played multiple times before?

    I actually want Kirsten Dunst to win if her film does take off. But I really do want to see Denzel take his 3rd Oscar soon and from the chatter about his role it sounds like he will be incredible.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    Magnus
    Joined:
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    #1204209925

    On a related note Red, White and Water is apparently about to start reshoots.

    Sounds like a mess.

    2022 Awards FYC:
    Shiva Baby (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress - Rachel Sennott, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Score)
    Summer of Soul (Best Picture, Best Documentary Feature)
    Zola (Best Supporting Actor - Colman Domingo)
    Cruella (Best Costume Design)

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    fefface
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    Jan 14th, 2020
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    #1204209929

    I actually want Kirsten Dunst to win if her film does take off. But I really do want to see Denzel take his 3rd Oscar soon and from the chatter about his role it sounds like he will be incredible.

    He’s playing Macbeth, it’s incredible material. Don’t get me wrong I expect him to be fantastic. I’m just way more interested in some of the original movies coming out this year and don’t think Macbeth is a particularly challenging role for him. I’d rather see a first-time winner.

    Also McDormand and Dunst are likely to be in separate categories – Lady Macbeth really isn’t in that much of the play.

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