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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 6)

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    fefface
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    #1204211003

    Your answer reminded me of Focus giving Tom McCarthy’s Stillwater a late July release. Does that mean it’s bad or is it just a case of them not wanting to delay the film anymore when it’s ready?

    No that one I think is probably getting dumped – McCarthy is a previous Director nominee and Screenplay winner who directed a BP winner. His directorial follow up should be getting a fall release date so the fact it isn’t, isn’t a good sign.

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    gorman
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    #1204211020

    At first I thought it was a terrible idea but the more I think about it the smarter it is. It’s not unheard of for movies released in summer to break through in awards season (most recently Blackkklansman, released in August, and OUATIH, released in July) and while I’m not saying this is in any way comparable to those movies, the precedent does exist. What Amazon have done IMO by releasing it in what I am assuming will be August is given it a chance to stand out on its own. If they release this in Oct/Nov when all the big conventional awards stuff comes out it will vanish without trace. The schedule is outrageous and even some of the big movies could struggle for box office. Putting it out in August ,when the schedule is less busy, gives it space to breathe and for potentially more people to see it. Either that or it’s terrible and they’re dumping it, but I don’t get that vibe. They held on to the distribution rights all this time – they picked it up two years before it was even made – so they must have some degree of confidence. Also they’ve not mentioned theatrical in their posts so far but looking at the visuals and cinematography I think it will absolutely get a limited theatrical release.

    Yeah I think you’re right. There’s obviously going to be a high degree of confidence in a movie they’ve backed for this long and is opening Cannes. It’s also being billed as this grand, pure cinematic event – as though they’re positioning it as at the vanguard of a powerful return for cinema – so it makes sense they’d want it to open before all the other films in contention so they can continue running with that narrative. Unlike prior years, the films that release in cinemas earlier may be able to sustain a narrative, one they’ve obviously never had before, about leading a return to grand cinematic events. People will really remember the first great, new films they see once cinemas are open. Of course, it’ll be undercut by the fact they’ll put it on streaming pretty quickly, but that won’t stop them lol.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204211035

    @fefface Eternals may be good but there are good and even very good movies that don’t get nominated in above the line categories beside Picture. I get that there’s an afterglow possibility for Zhao but that doesn’t happen all the time and this is a genre movie w/o socio-political commentary that AMPAS likes. Well, you could make a big reach and give it a love-your-planet/climate change spin but that would be weak especially since Dune has much more pronounced socio-political comentaries including that one.

    As for Lee, I wouldn’t count on bias if other actors were deemed better and had better received movies.

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    fefface
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    #1204211051

    As for Lee, I wouldn’t count on bias if other actors were deemed better and had better received movies.

    That was partly in jest (but only partly, as I do think Lee will look for an opportunity to reward his man).

    My thinking is mostly that he is playing what looks like a very physically and emotionally demanding role (think I also clocked him in old-age prosthetics in one shot of that trailer) and he’s doing it for Leos Carax. Driver in Actor is the safest bet for it even if it’s not super well received IMO – he’s building a very solid relationship with the festival too (this is his seventh Cannes premiere and his second consecutive Cannes opener).

    And if it is well-received then perhaps it takes Director or the Palme instead.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204211101

    That was partly in jest (but only partly, as I do think Lee will look for an opportunity to reward his man). My thinking is mostly that he is playing what looks like a very physically and emotionally demanding role (think I also clocked him in old-age prosthetics in one shot of that trailer) and he’s doing it for Leos Carax. Driver in Actor is the safest bet for it even if it’s not super well received IMO – he’s building a very solid relationship with the festival too (this is his seventh Cannes premiere and his second consecutive Cannes opener). And if it is well-received then perhaps it takes Director or the Palme instead.

    I certianly noticed his rock solid abs and started to wonder if he was secretly filming a superhero movie.

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    fefface
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    #1204211106

    I certianly noticed his rock solid abs and started to wonder if he was secretly filming a superhero movie.

    Well we know Carax loves a physically demanding performance! And this is a musical, and those can be pretty rigorous. From the clip of him jump-pirouetting across the stage in a bathrobe Driver does seem to have gone all-in.

    And you mean this shot?

    Yeah the trailer has ended up on so many random websites you’d never expect to see Carax appear on, basically because of this moment.

     

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    schmids
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    #1204211109

    What Amazon have done IMO by releasing it in what I am assuming will be August is given it a chance to stand out on its own. If they release this in Oct/Nov when all the big conventional awards stuff comes out it will vanish without trace. The schedule is outrageous and even some of the big movies could struggle for box office. Putting it out in August ,when the schedule is less busy, gives it space to breathe and for potentially more people to see it.  

    This is a great point I hadn’t considered. I wonder if by the end of November we’ll all have ‘awards movie’ fatigue? I can see the sheer volume of stuff coming out being pretty exhausting for awards voters.

    Maybe we are so conditioned to expect that ‘only’ fall movies will do well for awards, but this year the sheer volume of them will put paid to a fair few chances and some outsiders will sneak in. I like that idea.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204211115

    Well we know Carax loves a physically demanding performance! And this is a musical, and those can be pretty rigorous. From the clip of him jump-pirouetting across the stage in a bathrobe Driver does seem to have gone all-in. And you mean this shot? Yeah the trailer has ended up on so many random websites you’d never expect to see Carax appear on, basically because of this moment.

    Oh yes! Ha ha that shot really pops doesn’t it?

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    JV
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    #1204211182

    https://mobile.twitter.com/IndieWire/status/1384538324661149704

    Scott Rudin stepping back from Film and Streaming work.

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