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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 6)

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    LA26
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    #1204173313

    Carax isn’t Oscar-friendly, but his leads are. Al Pacino has already wrapped on House of Gucci, which means they’re into the 1990s and the last part of the timeline already. Can definitely see either that or Spencer being the opening film for Venice.

     

    How do you know Pacino wrapped on HoG? Jared Leto’s role might not be big. He hasn’t been pictured since Como. I wonder if he already wrapped too.

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    LA26
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    #1204173315

    The project was greenlit after Disney bought Fox. If they were that concerned about the subject matter, they could have just binned it. I’m not too surprised Eternals got the more favourable release date either – they want it to make a shitload of money. Also the schedule generally is so packed for the latter half of next year we have aberrations like the new PTA getting a September release date and Respect coming in August.

    Yep, they could have binned it if they wanted too. Deadline first broke the news about TLD in July 2019, and they mentioned that other studios had their sights set on the film if Disney decided not to go forward with it.

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    schmids
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    #1204173328

    How do you know Pacino wrapped on HoG? Jared Leto’s role might not be big. He hasn’t been pictured since Como. I wonder if he already wrapped too.

    Photos of him flying out of Rome on Twitter.

    And yeah it seems like Leto might be wrapped, but he did go to Rome and he is still in Italy per his Instagram.

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    LA26
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    #1204173334

    Margot Robbie recently wrapped DOR’s film, and she’s currently prepping for Babylon. Filming starts in June. I wonder which film will earn her an Oscar.

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    Matheus Vaz
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    #1204173346

    Margot Robbie recently wrapped DOR’s film, and she’s currently prepping for Babylon. Filming starts in June. I wonder which film will earn her an Oscar.

    Babylon is her strongest chance, Chazelle had two films winning acting awards last decade and I’m sure it will be better received than another DOR mess.

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    vinichelsea
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    #1204173358

    Carax isn’t Oscar-friendly, but his leads are.

    Al Pacino has already wrapped on House of Gucci, which means they’re into the 1990s and the last part of the timeline already. Can definitely see either that or Spencer being the opening film for Venice.

    Well, that doesn’t really matter, honestly, given that the vision of the director is above all the intentions. If it did, “Dogville”, for example, would have been Oscar friendly.

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    schmids
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    #1204173372

    Well, that doesn’t really matter, honestly, given that the vision of the director is above all the intentions. If it did, “Dogville”, for example, would have been Oscar friendly.

    You may be right, and my comment was not intended to be a statement that Annette will be Oscar-friendly. Just that it has a pair of Oscar-friendly leads, which Carax has not had before. It’s also his first work in English.

    Of course it’s Carax and it could be completely inaccessible, but if Adam Driver wins Actor at Cannes I can see him getting a bit of momentum.

     

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    vinichelsea
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    #1204173379

    How so? Cinematographer is not going to talk crap about the movie he worked on. So whenever so-and-so associated with any movie sings hosannas, big grain of salt. Also, test screening reactions (2 of them who broke NDA) were positive but that’s only 2 people so not a big enough sample to gauge what critical and boxoffice reception will be. And opening against Halloween Kills isn’t a good idea either. I’m surprised that Disney hasn’t moved it from that slot yet especially if it’s (one of) their awards contenders. But maybe they have faith only in Eternals whether real of Feige hubris. Recently leaked Eternals synopsis, whose authenticity was backed by several bloggers, sounds typically generic and exposition-heavy so maybe Zhao’s magic elevated it. Either way, TLD has a terrible release date and Disney chatter seems to be with Eternals despite h-hum sysnopsis (script?). That does not peg TLD as their priority. Perhaps Disney is uncomfortable with the movie’s theme. After all, they were uncomfortable with Jojo Rabbit too. They don’t like controversy.

    I hadn’t even read what the cinematographer said until now, and what he said is… OK, I guess. “The Last Duel” has, as I sad:

    a) Much more reliable producing team compared to “House of Gucci” (I’m still wondering how MGM will handle this after the 007 fiasco)

    b) Much more reliable distribution team compared to “House of Gucci” giving it a leg-up in terms of FYI campaigns.

    c) In my opinion, a much more reliable writing team than “House of Gucci”. Matt Damon & Ben Affleck can sit on the corner but Nicole Holofcener, after trying hard, got her Oscar Nomination in her last movie “Can You Ever Forgive Me”, and her screenplays always have the tendency to flourish good performances and here she does have a good cast to work with. If the “Rashomon” storytelling described by
    Dariusz Wolski works, this is a shoo-in.

    Those reasons make it obvious for ME, but of course these are very early predictions, this could very well be a new “Exodus” and fall flat in the awards.

    The thing that makes me a little nervous about it is the rape aspect of the story. The screenwriter being a woman (let’s be honest that Damon & Affleck are only signing this) is a good sign, but the director being an old white guy may put Holofcener’s text at risk regardless. Well, let’s see.

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    SN
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    #1204173390

    Margot Robbie recently wrapped DOR’s film, and she’s currently prepping for Babylon. Filming starts in June. I wonder which film will earn her an Oscar.

    I think DOR film will flop.

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    schmids
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    #1204173628

    I think DOR film will flop.

    Same.

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    storminthedark
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    #1204173939

    Short clip of Gaga acting in HoG with Jack Huston, they’re going for Italian accents

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    marty
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    #1204173957

    I think DOR film will flop.

    We can only hope

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    wolfali
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    #1204174146

    For some reason I’m gutting weird A Rainy Day in New York vibes from Amsterdam so I’m taking it out of everything above the line in my predictions for now.

    Picture

    1. The French Dispatch
    2. The Power of the Dog
    3. House of Gucci
    4. Last Night in Soho
    5. Don’t Look Up
    6. The Tragedy of Macbeth
    7. Nightmare Alley
    8. Don’t Worry Darling
    9. Annette
    10. The Electrical Life of Louis Wain

    Director

    1. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
    2. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
    3. Guillermo Del Toro, Nightmare Alley
    4. Edgar Wright, Last Night in Soho
    5. Olivia Wilde, Don’t Worry Darling

    Actress

    1. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
    2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
    3. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
    4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect
    5. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling

    Actor

    1. Adam Driver, House of Gucci
    2. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
    3. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
    4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
    5. Josh O’Connor, Mothering Sunday

    S. Actress

    1. Claire Foy, Louis Wain
    2. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
    3. Diana Rigg, Last Night in Soho
    4. Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho
    5. Regina King, The Harder They Fall

    S. Actor

    1. Al Pacino, House of Gucci
    2. Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley
    3. Idris Elba, The Harder They Fall
    4. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
    5. Richard Jenkins, Nightmare Alley

    Original Screenplay

    1. Last Night in Soho
    2. The French Dispatch
    3. Don’t Look Up
    4. Louis Wain
    5. Don’t Worry Darling

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    1. The Power of the Dog
    2. The Tragedy of Macbeth
    3. Nightmare Alley
    4. House of Gucci
    5. Passing

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    LA26
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    #1204174280

    I could be wrong but I can’t help but feel Ana de Armas might not be a part of the 2022 season because of how competitive the Best Actress category is going to be. Does she have a strong shot at getting in? I think the film could get nominated for makeup and hairstyling.

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    kaziz
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    #1204174316

    Underestimating Thomasin McKenzie and Frances Conroy in The Power of the Dog—they’re great supporting parts and if the film hits for BP, Dunst, Cumberbatch, Plemons, there’s really no reason either McKenzie or Conroy couldn’t make it. I say Conroy in addition to McKenzie because based on the book Conroy has the bigger part but I’m pretty sure Campion is making McKenzie’s role bigger than in the book because there’s no way McKenzie would be in a cameo role.

    Besides—Thomasin McKenzie seems super ripe for recognition.

    Also, this is why Dunst can’t go supporting. Why would they want to put 3 actresses in supporting, especially when Dunst is a co-lead?

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