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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 6)

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    Stank83
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    #1204175712

    I think the script has changed and was rewritten.
    It’s going to be good enough to compete.

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    kaziz
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    #1204175746

    Nowadays, its hard to get four acting nominations for a single film but it isn’t impossible though for McKenzie and/or Conroy to coattail especially if The Power of the Dog becomes a BP frontrunner.

    True, but it won’t stop them from angling for it. Not with this many stars on their hands.

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    kaziz
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    #1204175765

    Let’s see… Reading the book I did not have this feeling at all, to me Benedict Cumberbatch’s character is a type of lead that swallows all the other characters in the book. The other brother will go supporting, and he has more to work with than Dunst’s character.

    I do agree that the placement and Dunst’s star status may interfere, but I would like to read more about the production to change my mind.

    Cumberbatch’s character definitely leads in the book. That will probably stay the same, but there’s more than number of clues to suggest Campion will be using Phil vs. Rose as the inciting relationship. First, why would they cast Thomasin McKenzie in a role that’s a cameo in the book? She only interacts with Dunst in the book—that’s probably going to stay the same. Second, Rose’s first husband doesn’t seem to be in the movie at all, meaning they want to dive right into Rose from the start. Third, even in the book, Rose is the only other POV character, so it makes total sense to want to organically grow Dunst’s character and take out some of the other stuff like her first husband. That’s probably why McKenzie was cast: Lola needs to be in this a lot more because Rose is a bigger part of it all.

    But even still, I remember reading reviews for the book & I agreed with them on one thing: Cumberbatch’s character Phil has the surprise, but Dunst’s (Rose) has the lived-in reality & terror of living with Phil which forms the tense meat of the whole narrative. Phil and Rose’s relationship is the real meat of the book imo—there’s a reason it’s not a flashback to Phil and Buffalo Bill, or why Peter is a major part of the book only towards the end. Rose is incredibly important, she might need to be beefed-up for a film adaptation to work.

    Plemons’ character has more to work with than Dunst’s? He doesn’t even get a POV in the book, he’s the quietest character of all.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204175859

    I was looking at the boxoffice schedule for this year and some movies are screwed. Well, movies that need boxoffice because they cost a lot. They may be the best ever but no one is going to nominate an expensive flop. Indies and character dramas neither cost a lot nor are expected to make money. But big budget movies are. And it’s brutal.

    October is a complete bloodbath. Dune opens on Oct 1 and has 1 week to be #1 until No Time To Die crushes it since they cut into the same audience. But The Last Duel is an absolute disaster. Not only it opens just a week after Bond but on the same day with Halloween Kills, so no chance to be even #2 at the boxoffice. All these movies are direct competition to each other, no counter-programming. It’s impossible that Disney thinks this is going to be fine in such a terrible release spot. So they either gave up on it or will move it but where?

    Novemeber is stacked with King Richard providing a good counter-programming to Eternals (2 weeks earlier), Ghostbusters (a week earlier) and Mission Impossible 7 (same day).  That one’s gonna make money off older crowd that isn’t into wizz bang.

    December: Nightmare Alley is so-so positioned. A week after Resident Evil but good counterprogramming to West Side story a week later plus holidays are kind to most movies. should leg it up at least to some degree.

    If House of Gucci indeed gets released this year than I can only see mid-late December reelase as counterprogramming to Spiderman, Matrix and King’s Man. As a high end soap opera with fashion and glamour it would do very well for Xmas. I don’t see any other slot tbh.

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    schmids
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    #1204177506

    I was looking at the boxoffice schedule for this year and some movies are screwed.

    If House of Gucci indeed gets released this year than I can only see mid-late December reelase as counterprogramming to Spiderman, Matrix and King’s Man. As a high end soap opera with fashion and glamour it would do very well for Xmas. I don’t see any other slot tbh.

    If you were looking at the schedule you should know that House of Gucci is dated Nov 24 and has been for months.

    And yeah the schedule is a mess but I don’t think it means as much as in a normal year. There are so many films everyone is jostling for space. Respect is one of the baitiest, most Oscar-friendly projects of the year and it’s being released in August.

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    Sir Pierce
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    #1204177652

    Ngl, I do feel like both Amsterdam and Don’t Look Up will be players come Awards season. I get the impression David O. Russell and Adam MacKay aren’t very popular here…

    But, in regards to DOR, what he has been accused of isn’t quite on the level of a Woody Allen or Polanski or Bryan Singer. I do think he’s a bit dodge, though. I’m not convinced it effects the Award chances so much. Also, unless he does something on this particular production (which wouldn’t be shocking, given his actions on the sets of Accidental Love and I Heart Huckabees, as well as other allegations haha), then I reckon he’s probably in the clear, outside of film twitter, who aren’t really his fans, regardless of his actions. His films are certainly watchable and provide great material for actors. What he is as a person, though, ain’t great. All the same, I’d be surprised if Bale doesn’t get in. He’s usually pretty good and I think all he needs to do to get a nomination is star in a film that’s in the conversation. I don’t think he’ll win, though. Same goes for Robbie, who is sure to put in a likeable turn. I reckon for Supporting actors that John David Washington has a good chance of getting into the category. Not certain he’d win, but if he’s a scene-stealer he has a chance. Besides, I reckon there’ll be some goodwill for him going forward. He’s proven himself to be a very charismatic leading man in Tenet and BlacKKKlansman. He was also, imo, the best part of Malcolm & Marie and showed he could portray a character with a lot of death, whereas his character in Tenet is intentionally the stereotypical charisma-ridden leading man. He could win, but I don’t think he will.

    For Don’t Look Up, I’ve read the script. It isn’t as bad as many are saying here. I reckon it’ll be in the conversation for Picture and Original Screenplay. I don’t think the characters are good enough for it to get into the acting categories. Then, again, a lot of MacKay’s films feature improvising. And DiCaprio is the kind of Actor who can make a role his own, therefore I wouldn’t be surrprised if he was the solid 5th place nomination that you get every year (like Oldman or DiCaprio in 2019), who has no chance of winning, or he could be the one everyone anticipates has a pretty good chance of getting in but doesn’t (JDW in Black Klansman and Hanks in News Of The World). All the same, I’d  be shocked if it had a chance at winning Picture.

    As for that, I’d offer a look at, possibly, The French Dispatch. Wes Anderson’s last two live-action flicks were very warmly recieved by the Academy. And, if it’s as good as those two, then it stands a very good chance at winning in, at least one of, Best Picture, Best Director and Best Original Screenplay. However, I struggle to see it getting into the acting categories, as I reckon it’ll be ensemble-driven. And, even if there is an outstanding player like Fiennes in Grand Budapest, then, like in that case, it wouldn’t be so likely they’d get in.

    The Power Of The Dog is hard to predict. But I feel like it isn’t Netflix’s priority – that’s gonna be Don’t Look Up. But it has the potential to do well. The problem is that, as much as everyone on here seems to love Jane Campion, none of her films outside of The Piano have done remotely well at the Academy. In other words, it could be a bit of a flop with them. Then again, I feel like it might perform well. In which case, though, I’m not buying a Win for it at the moment, unless it is insanely praised.  Because it doesn’t seem to be a complete crowd-pleaser (a la Green Book or Spotlight) nor does it seem to be a surprise auteur virtuoso masterwork (a la Nomadland, Moonlight or Parasite) nor, most importantly, does it seem to be the kind of Great Director gets what they deserve flick (a la The Departed or The Shape Of Water and, to a lesser extent, Birdman or 12 Years A Slave – the latter two’s directors had been rather underappreciated by the Academy, but all of their work up to that point had been extremely acclaimed). Jane Campion has The Piano and a solid set of TV work. But outside of that there isn’t much. She might pull it off, but I don’t see it. Tarantino couldn’t in 2019; I don’t buy her chances in 2021. If it does well, though, I reckon Cumberbatch could get in here – sounds like a good role for him. And I can see Dunst possibly having a great narrative with her work going often unappreciated. I’d say it’s kind of hard to tell with the other cast members right now, but the others could get coattail noms.

    Two other films that I feel like will do well, but have no chance of winning Best Picture are Nightmare Alley and Tragedy Of Macbeth. For both, I can totally see the leading men winning Oscars. As many have pointed out, Cooper is inevitably gonna win. And he is again playing to his strengths as an actor – alcoholic, sort-of-romantic lead, with an element of tragedy from what I understand of the original text. On the other hand, Denzel is totally an actor who can get three Oscars. He is on that level and I do think the Academy rate him. I think, given the great director he is working with (Coen), then it is very easy to imagine him giving the Best Performance since his work in Malcolm X. And Macbeth is a beast of a part that a great verbal-actor like Washington could play to stunning effect. I, also, can see MacDormand winning in Supporting Actress for her role as Lady Macbeth, if she misses this year. She’s gotten a great career-kick lately and, like Denzel, she is an actor of such repute that a third Oscar is very believable. The same goes for Blanchett in Nightmare Alley, but I must confess that I don’t reckon she’ll win. My gut-feeling is that Nightmare Alley’s best performance will be Cooper, but there will be some strong supporting work. I reckon there’ll be, at least, one supporting nod. I can easily see Blanchett getting in, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we got another double-nom in a Supporting category, with either Rooney Mara or Toni Collette getting in – both consistently great performers. I can see a nom for Defoe or Jenkins, but I don’t think it’s as likely.

    Speaking of Defoe, Paul Schrader’s The Card Counter could be his ticket to an Oscar win. They are constant career-collaborators. And Defoe really just needs a great role to win, I feel. He is clearly well-respected in the industry. The same goes for Oscar Isaac, who could snag a Best Actor nom here. I think everyone knows he’s a great actor and he probably should have been nominated at least twice by now (Ex Machina, Inside Llewyn Davis). The only snag here is Paul Schrader. Sure, First Reformed was possibly the best movie of 2018. But… if you look at what he was up to before First Reformed, then you’d have to go back to 2002’s decent Auto-Focus to find a remotely good Schrader film. And, even before then, the only thing Schrader’s ever been consistent at is being inconsistent. I’d love it to be great, because when Schrader’s on form he’s genuinely phenomenal. Alas, I can only hope First Reformed was a good omen of things to come. Because I’d punch the air if we get another great Oscar Isaac-led film – he gets wasted a depressing amount, even in good films.

    As for the Ridley Scott ones, I think The Last Duel is harder to predict. It could do well, but, at the same time, it could be a bit dull and quite controversial. I can see Comer, the script and Driver getting in. Damon and Affleck don’t stand a chance, though. I’m not convinced it was a great idea to put Damon or Affleck in a British medieval drama, especially when cast opposite Driver and Comer – who can actually transform into a part. I worry that Damon and Affleck’s movie star presence might, in fact, diminish the movie’s chances. And Ridley Scott is so inconsistent that it has me a bit worried. Still, I live in hope that it’s watchable flick.

    On the other hand, House Of Gucci is based on very interesting subject material and it’s pretty much garunteed for craft noms. Additionally, the cast is pretty great. And a lot of them are very hot right now. I can even see Jeremy Irons being in a good position for a Supporting Actor nom. I can even see this being a good contender for Picture. A lot of people have talked about Annette in this thread, but I reckon this is where Driver will get his nomination…. Unless this one flops, then Annette isn’t standing a great chance. And I feel like Driver isn’t going to win, when his opposition are, frankly, in stronger positions than him. Bradley Cooper and Denzel Washington are very much playing to their strengths as actors and are working with directors who are, generally, more consistent than R. Scott. The thing is; I think Driver needs to be in a film that wins Picture for him to win. His problem is that it’s very easy to take him for granted, due to him being more subtle than Cooper or Washington. I feel he’s gonna win at some point, though… Just not yet. Pacino could win here, though. It’s a weird gut-feeling I have, but Pacino feels like the kind of actor to get a second Oscar. And, if he’s good, he could pull a win. Alas, though, I hear he’s stopped filming already, which is interesting. Equally, Jared Leto could get nominated. His role is physically transformative – looks nothing like the Jared Leto we’re used to seeing. And he does have respect in the industry – for instance, his frankly bizarre nomination at the Globes and SAG for The Little Things. Gaga could easily get in, but the more I think about it; the less secure I am in predicting her for a win. As I am with pretty much everyone in Lead Actress – it’s a hard category, right now.

    Lastly, I want to talk about Soggy Bottom, which I’m very interesting in seeing how it performs. To me, at least, I feel like, at some point, PTA is gonna pull out a film that the Academy can completely get in tune with. And the ’70s setting, along with the presence of a movie-star in the form of Bradley Cooper, is making me think this could be more accessible to the Academy and general audiences – think, more Boogie Nights than The Master (and I love both of them films equally!). I’m not convinced it’ll win, but I could see PTA getting a Best Director win here, if it’s a more mainstream hit than PTA’s other works. Additionally, if Cooper doesn’t win for Nightmare Alley, then he could easily win here. Throughout his career, PTA has done wonders for movie-stars – Burt Reynolds, Tom Cruise, Adam Sandler – and super-respected actors – Day-Lewis, Philip Seymour Hoffman and Joaquin Phoenix. Don’t be surprised if he pulls the same thing with Bradley Cooper here – remember, how close Reynolds and Cruise were to winning in those supporting categories and without such a narrative as Bradley Cooper is building up.

    As for other films, I’m not sure it’s worth predicting. There’s plenty that haven’t been mentioned here that could be the ones we’re constantly talking about in December. Films like Passing or Last Night In Soho could do great, but it’s hard to tell, without watching them ourselves, how they would play to the Academy. With all the films I’ve talked about above, there is some evidence with which I can give you backbone to my arguments. With Edgar Wright, for instance, there is nothing I can really say outside of me being extremely happy if he creates a film with enough depth for the Academy to be interested – which, frankly. has been the problem with his filmography thus far. I hope this can be his auteur breakout. And I’d much prefer the film if it was a bit more “pretentious” perhaps than his other films.

    At the moment, though, these are my thoughts.

    (Soz for waffling haha)

    Soggy Bottom

    A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

    Twitter: https://twitter.com/pierce_sir
    Letterboxd: https://letterboxd.com/11higuys/

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    LA26
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    #1204178047

    House of Gucci is a strong contender for crafts, but I’m not sure about the other categories, especially Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay. I’ve already mentioned this before, but the screenwriter is a newbie. Jared Leto’s role might not be that big either. I could be wrong, but he might have already wrapped. He hasn’t been pictured since Como. I don’t know if this has been mentioned before, but Reeve Carney is playing Tom Ford in the film.

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    LA26
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    #1204178055

    Regarding Amsterdam, I initially thought it was going to be a big player but I’m not sure now. DOR’s last film came out in 2015, before Me Too. I think the 5 year hiatus caused him to not suffer a lot of backlash, but there have been articles published about his behavior after Me Too. I wonder if his behavior will be brought up when the film comes out. It doesn’t have a release date yet, but it’s currently in post-production.

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    Diamond Tier
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    #1204178064

    I have a suspicion the Razzies might nominate Gaga for trying to go “serious”. They love taking a swipe at singer/actresses.

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    walkinuniverse
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    #1204178346

    I have a suspicion the Razzies might nominate Gaga for trying to go “serious”. They love taking a swipe at singer/actresses.

    Don’t give them ideas 😭

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    Miles
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    #1204178454

    I’m currently predicting The Last Duel in Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Adapted Screenplay, and House of Gucci in Actress and Supporting Actor. Of the two, I see the former being the bigger contender. Both could flop or both could be great, who knows. If both are contenders at all I see Ridley Scott canceling himself out in Director.

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    schmids
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    #1204178697

    I’m currently predicting The Last Duel in Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Adapted Screenplay, and House of Gucci in Actress and Supporting Actor. Of the two, I see the former being the bigger contender. Both could flop or both could be great, who knows. If both are contenders at all I see Ridley Scott canceling himself out in Director.

    You might be the first person I’ve seen predict Matt Damon.

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    distain
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    #1204178713

    I think if Nicole Kidman gives a warmly recieved performance in Meet The Ricardos, she is very probably winning her second Best Actress Oscar.

    Especially the initial backlash she recieved for being miscast as Lucille Ball, there’s very much a narrative there of Kidman proving doubters wrong, which will make a well recieved performance seem like an even bigger triumph. And honestly, I suspect she will deliver a powerful turn, as she usually does.

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    Stank83
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    #1204178775

    1. Adam Driver (House of Gucci/Annette)
    2. Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
    3. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of The Dog)
    4. Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up)
    5. Christian Bale (Amsterdam)

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204178792

    I’m currently predicting The Last Duel in Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Adapted Screenplay, and House of Gucci in Actress and Supporting Actor. Of the two, I see the former being the bigger contender. Both could flop or both could be great, who knows. If both are contenders at all I see Ridley Scott canceling himself out in Director.

    The last Duel ain’t going anywhere with such a terrible release date.  Also, House of Gucci might move out of November since it’s stacked af and there’s already a counter-programming to superheroes and the likes and that King Richard.

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