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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 8)

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    Heptapod
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    #1204236327

    I know I’ve JUST posted my main predictions but I’ve switched some stuff around and done a full list so I’m posting again. Winners italicized.

    NIGHTMARE ALLEY (11) – Picture, Director, Supporting Actor (Willem Dafoe), Supporting Actress (Toni Collette), Supporting Actress (Rooney Mara), Adapted Screenplay, Original Score, Editing, Costume Design, Production Design, Makeup and Hairstyling

    LAST NIGHT IN SOHO (9) – Picture, Director, Supporting Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Costume Design, Production Design, Makeup and Hairstyling

    THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH (9) – Picture, Lead Actor (Denzel Washington), Lead Actress (Frances McDormand), Adapted Screenplay, Original Score, Editing, Production Design, Sound, Visual Effects

    THE FRENCH DISPATCH (7) – Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Original Score, Cinematography, Costume Design, Production Design

    THE POWER OF THE DOG (7) – Picture, Director, Supporting Actor (Jesse Plemons), Supporting Actress (Kirsten Dunst), Adapted Screenplay, Original Score, Editing

    HOUSE OF GUCCI (6) – Picture, Lead Actor (Adam Driver), Lead Actress (Lady Gaga), Supporting Actor (Al Pacino), Original Song, Costume Design

    THE CARD COUNTER (4) – Picture, Lead Actor (Oscar Isaac), Original Screenplay, Editing

    DECISION TO LEAVE (4) – Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, International Feature

    ETERNALS (4) – Original Score, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, Visual Effects

    IN THE HEIGHTS (4) – Picture, Lead Actor (Anthony Ramos), Original Song, Sound

    THE MAD WOMAN’S BALL (3) – Lead Actress (Mélanie Laurent), Adapted Screenplay, International Feature

    SOGGY BOTTOM (3) – Picture, Supporting Actor (Bradley Cooper), Original Screenplay

    DUNE (2) – Sound, Visual Effects

    ENCANTO (2) – Original Song, Animated Feature

    THE HARDER THEY FALL (2) – Supporting Actor (Delroy Lindo), Costume Design

    BRUISED – Lead Actress (Halle Berry)

    C’MON C’MON – Cinematography

    CODA – Adapted Screenplay

    DEAR EVAN HANSEN – Original Song

    DON’T LOOK UP – Visual Effects

    EVERYBODY’S TALKING ABOUT JAMIE – Makeup and Hairstyling

    KING RICHARD – Lead Actor (Will Smith)

    THE NORTHMAN – Cinematography

    NO TIME TO DIE – Original Song

    PASSING – Supporting Actress (Ruth Negga)

    A QUIET PLACE PART II – Sound

    SHANG-CHI AND THE LEGEND OF THE TEN RINGS – Visual Effects

    SPENCER – Lead Actress (Kristen Stewart)

    THE SUICIDE SQUAD – Makeup and Hairstyling

    TOP GUN: MAVERICK – Sound

    WEST SIDE STORY – Production Design

    Emmys FYC: Maya Erskine in PEN15, Paapa Essiedu in I May Destroy You, Keeley Hawes in It's a Sin, Carl Lumbly in TFATWS, Cristin Milioti in Made for Love, Elizabeth Olsen in WandaVision, Billie Piper in I Hate Suzie, Hailee Steinfeld in Dickinson, William Zabka in Cobra Kai

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    LA26
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    #1204236349

    Let’s be honest. The only reason Gucci is getting attention is because of the Gaga stans, and whether or not it turns out that the attention is deserved, there’s no other reason for Gucci to be overhyped this much this early.

    Yep, you’re right. I think it’s the combo of an unusual pairing like Gaga and Driver that has attracted a lot of attention (kind of like her and Cooper together), as well as the fact the film is based on real events and scandals. The film has gotten a lot of attention from fashion magazines like Elle, Vogue, Harper’s Bazaar and Marie Claire because of the Gucci fashion connection. I don’t think those magazines would have paid attention if the film had no connections to a famous Italian fashion brand.

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    CuriousHedgehog
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    #1204236360

    Guys I really don’t think DEH is going to be the musical to make it through to the Oscars.

    FYC:

    Best Screenplay: Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Eliza Hitman)
    Best Actress: Sidney Flanigan ("Never Rarely Sometimes Always")

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    George Ehret
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    #1204236387

    DEH isn’t a musical I can see translating very well to screen. I just don’t know how you can make that cinematic.

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    mitchellfleming21
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    #1204236406

    END OF APRIL PREDICTIONS:

    Best Picture:
    Annette (Amazon)
    Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
    Dune (Warner Bros)
    The French Dispatch (Searchlight)
    The Last Duel (20th Century)
    Last Night in Soho (Focus Features)
    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)
    The Power of the Dog (Netflix) (WINNER)
    Three Thousand Years of Longing (MGM)
    The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24)

    Best Director:
    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog  (WINNER)
    Park Chan-Wook – Decision to Leave
    Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley
    George Miller – Three Thousand Years of Longing
    Ridley Scott – The Last Duel

    Best Actor:
    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog (WINNER)
    Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up
    Adam Driver – Annette
    Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter
    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Best Actress:
    Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley
    Jodie Comer – The Last Duel
    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci
    Jennifer Hudson – Respect (WINNER)
    Tilda Swinton – Three Thousand Years of Longing

    Best Supporting Actor:
    Willem Dafoe – The Card Counter
    Idris Elba – Three Thousand Years of Longing (WINNER)
    Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley
    Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog
    Steven Yeun – The Humans

    Best Supporting Actress:
    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (WINNER)
    Anya Taylor Joy – Last Night in Soho
    Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth
    Olga Merediz – In the Heights
    Ruth Negga – Passing

    Best Original Screenplay:
    Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up
    Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch
    Edgar Wright & Krysty Wilson-Cairns – Last Night in Soho
    Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom
    George Miller – Three Thousand Years of Longing (WINNER)

    Best Adapted Screenplay:
    Ben Affleck, Matt Damon and Nicole Holofcener – The Last Duel
    Guillermo Del Toro & Kim Morgan – Nightmare Alley
    Rebecca Hall – Passing
    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog (WINNER)
    Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Best Cinematography:
    Dariusz Wolski – The Last Duel (WINNER)
    Chung-hoon Chung – Last Night in Soho
    Jarin Blashcke – The Northman
    Ari Wegner – The Power of the Dog
    John Seale – Three Thousand Years of Longing

    Best Original Score:
    Ron and Russell Mael – Annette
    Hans Zimmer – Dune (WINNER)
    Alexandre Desplat – Nightmare Alley
    Jonny Greenwood – The Power of the Dog
    Carter Burwell – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Best Editing:
    Hank Corwin – Don’t Look Up
    Claire Simpson – The Last Duel
    Paul Machliss – Last Night in Soho (WINNER)
    Peter Sciberras – The Power of the Dog
    Margaret Sixel – Three Thousand Years of Longing

    Best Sound:
    Dune
    Last Night in Soho (WINNER)
    The Northman
    Three Thousand Years of Longing
    A Quiet Place Part II

    Best Visual Effects:
    Don’t Look Up
    Dune (WINNER)
    Eternals
    Godzilla vs Kong
    The Suicide Squad

    Best Production Design:
    Dune
    The French Dispatch
    Nightmare Alley
    Three Thousand Years of Longing (WINNER)
    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Best Costume Design:
    The French Dispatch
    House of Gucci (WINNER)
    Last Night in Soho
    Nightmare Alley
    Three Thousand Years of Longing

    Best Hair and MakeUp:
    Annette
    The French Dispatch
    House of Gucci (WINNER)
    The Last Duel
    Three Thousand Years of Longing

    TOTAL NOMINATIONS OF THE BEST PICTURE NOMINEES:

    Annette – 5 nominations (including Original Song)
    Don’t Look Up – 5 nominations
    Dune – 5 nominations
    The French Dispatch – 5 nominations
    The Last Duel – 7 nominations
    Last Night in Soho – 7 nominations
    Nightmare Alley – 8 nominations
    The Power of the Dog – 9 nominations
    Three Thousand Years of Longing – 11 nominations
    The Tragedy of Macbeth – 6 nominations

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    borisy
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    #1204236420

    apparently Gaga is doing a song for the new Top Gun movie

    she wants that double nomination again

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    SN
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    #1204236447

    I’m not sure with VFX because it was filmed on practical locations so there’s probably minimal of it than what we think

    So like, you know, Tenet?

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    Heptapod
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    #1204236453

    The Eternals VFX will provably appeal to the Academy because it’ll be more subtle and not as in your face or constantly prevalent as other Marvel films.

    Emmys FYC: Maya Erskine in PEN15, Paapa Essiedu in I May Destroy You, Keeley Hawes in It's a Sin, Carl Lumbly in TFATWS, Cristin Milioti in Made for Love, Elizabeth Olsen in WandaVision, Billie Piper in I Hate Suzie, Hailee Steinfeld in Dickinson, William Zabka in Cobra Kai

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    SN
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    #1204236455

    I don’t think Ridley Scott is happening. I actually think he’ll die without an Oscar. I can’t see him doing an undeniable film this late in his career.

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    kaziz
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    #1204236515

    END OF APRIL PREDICTIONS:

    Damn these are good. I hope Passing, The Lost Daughter and Mass get more traction but these are pretty good.

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    Heptapod
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    #1204236545

    The way Lin-Manuel Miranda will have three original songs in contention (though I doubt all will be nominated) and he’s still going to lose all of them to music industry darling Billie.

    Emmys FYC: Maya Erskine in PEN15, Paapa Essiedu in I May Destroy You, Keeley Hawes in It's a Sin, Carl Lumbly in TFATWS, Cristin Milioti in Made for Love, Elizabeth Olsen in WandaVision, Billie Piper in I Hate Suzie, Hailee Steinfeld in Dickinson, William Zabka in Cobra Kai

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    Vicki Leekx
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    #1204236553

    I don’t get this “overdue” thing about Ridley Scott. I mean he’s hardly some auteur director, he makes a film a year, and if anything has a bit of a reputation of phoning it in with his whole “I can do the whole thing in less than a year”. He’s not exactly Spielberg because amongst the big hits (Gladiator, Thelma and Louise, Alien), he’s had a LOT of stinkers. He did not get a Director nom for The Martian, he’s made 13 films since his last Best Director nom (Black Hawk Down) and that’s hardly because any of them deserved them. Who exactly is clamoring to reward him?! Wes Anderson, Jane Campion, even newer directors like Denis Villeneuve, Robert Eggers, and Edgar Wright are far more interesting people who have been critically-acclaimed for some time now and have yet to be fully welcomed (although I doubt Villeneuve is going to be a factor with Dune because…it’s unadaptable and very abstruse, but having been welcomed with Arrival, people do admire him!) Olivia Wilde, Rebecca Hall are more exciting. Even Paul Schrader arguably has more goodwill because he just made a masterpiece with First Reformed that they ignored. Not to mention, I genuinely think somebody like PTA is far more likely to take that “overdue director” spot after 8 nominations… I don’t know, I don’t see it for the whole “Ridley Scott is overdue” thing. I mean c’mon. A Good Year? Prometheus? ROBIN HOOD? His main legacy seems to be giving Russell Crowe highly mediocre films to act in.

    I couldn’t disagree more, because you’re cherry picking Scott’s worst films to claim he doesn’t deserve. We all know he’s inconsistent. I’m a fan of most of the directors you mentioned, but none of them have directed anything as iconic as the likes of Blade Runner, Thelma and Louise, and Alien…one of which was the last to feature 2 strong female leading roles nominated in the same category…

    FYC:

    Virginie Efira, Charlotte Rampling, Lambert Wilson, Benedetta (Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor)

    Jim Broadbent, Helen Mirren, The Duke (Actor, Supporting Actress)

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    LA26
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    #1204236563

    Just saw some major spoilers on Twitter about Annette from a 2016 WIP script. I think it’s legit because it would fit with the weirdness of Carax.

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    Preston!
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    #1204236567

    Top Gun coming for No Time To Die’s original song wig!

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    George Ehret
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    #1204236578

    BEST DIRECTOR
    Paul Thomas Anderson (Soggy Bottom)
    Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley)
    Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave)
    Denis Villeneuve (Dune)
    Edgar Wright (Last Night in Soho)

    I know some will notice I’m predicting snubs for Wes Anderson, Jane Campion, and Steven Spielberg, but there’s usually some big snub in this category. Wes I don’t really have a reason for aside from just wanting to fit in so many people, I have heard some things about Power of the Dog that make me think it may not be the Academy’s cup of tea, and Spielberg I think is gonna be that big snub because there’s no real incentive to nominate him again when there’s other work to recognize.

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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