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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 8)

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    kaziz
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    #1204236735

    The French Dispatch with its 10+ Academy Award nominees will take ensemble.

    I can see that. But tbh the number of cast members has never been the best bellwether. So many films have great ensembles this year, from TPOTD to Don’t Look Up to Last Night in SoHo to Nightmare Alley. I feel like SAG ensemble is the hardest thing for me to predict in advance, because it’s not as if stacking Oscar winners seems to get the wins :/

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    wolfali
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    #1204236741

    As someone who is predicting Last Night in Soho to do very well this awards season, it doesn’t strike me as an ensemble film.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    kaziz
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    #1204236746

    As someone who is predicting Last Night in Soho to do very well this awards season, it doesn’t strike me as an ensemble film.

    Yeah, I guess my point is I don’t really know what that is to SAG. 3BB didn’t strike me as ensemble either.

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    Heptapod
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    #1204236761

    SAG ensemble:
    1. The French Dispatch
    2. Nightmare Alley
    3. In the Heights
    4. The Tragedy of Macbeth
    5. The Harder They Fall
    6. The Power of the Dog
    7. Don’t Look Up
    8. Last Night in Soho
    9. Dear Evan Hansen
    10. House of Gucci
    11. Soggy Bottom
    12. Canterbury Glass
    13. Dune

    Emmys FYC: Maya Erskine in PEN15, Paapa Essiedu in I May Destroy You, Keeley Hawes in It's a Sin, Carl Lumbly in TFATWS, Cristin Milioti in Made for Love, Elizabeth Olsen in WandaVision, Billie Piper in I Hate Suzie, Hailee Steinfeld in Dickinson, William Zabka in Cobra Kai

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    Harmen Moes
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    #1204236767

    District 9 and Star Trek were both nominated for PGA. Baby Driver wasn’t.

     

    2011: Drive

    2012: The Avengers

    2013: ??

    2014: Interstellar & Guardians of the Galaxy

    2015: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

    2016: Deadpool & Inside Out

    2017: Logan

    2018: Into the Spider-Verse & If Beale Street Could Talk

    2019: Knives Out

    2020: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom & One Night in Miami

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    Harmen Moes
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    #1204236773

    Just like he tried to make Avengers: Endgame happen. Eternals will be a tech only film, and that’s assuming it gets anything outside vfx.

     

    We have BP and Joker in the past. 2020 was an worst comic book year.

     

    And The Batman coming in 2022. Maybe is than Eternals the best chance for Oscars. And Shang-Chi for SAG

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    wolfali
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    #1204236792

    SAG ensemble: 1. The French Dispatch 2. Nightmare Alley 3. In the Heights 4. The Tragedy of Macbeth 5. The Harder They Fall 6. The Power of the Dog 7. Don’t Look Up 8. Last Night in Soho 9. Dear Evan Hansen 10. House of Gucci 11. Soggy Bottom 12. Canterbury Glass 13. Dune

    I absolutely agree with your ranking from top to bottom!

    I think The Harder They Fall could get Idris Elba and Regina King in at SAG too if it’s any good/buzzy.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Heptapod
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    #1204236810

    Agreed! I’m also keeping a close eye on Delroy Lindo. He was definitely the buzziest snub of this last season, and while I still don’t believe in apology nominations being a thing, the general chatter surrounding his name can’t hurt him.

    The wild card supporting nominations I’m predicting at SAG (that will end up being snubbed at the Oscars) are Richard E. Grant for Everybody’s Talking About Jamie and Tiffany Haddish for The Card Counter.

    Emmys FYC: Maya Erskine in PEN15, Paapa Essiedu in I May Destroy You, Keeley Hawes in It's a Sin, Carl Lumbly in TFATWS, Cristin Milioti in Made for Love, Elizabeth Olsen in WandaVision, Billie Piper in I Hate Suzie, Hailee Steinfeld in Dickinson, William Zabka in Cobra Kai

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    Drusilla
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    #1204236819

    SAG ensemble: 1. The French Dispatch 2. Nightmare Alley 3. In the Heights 4. The Tragedy of Macbeth 5. The Harder They Fall 6. The Power of the Dog 7. Don’t Look Up 8. Last Night in Soho 9. Dear Evan Hansen 10. House of Gucci 11. Soggy Bottom 12. Canterbury Glass 13. Dune

    No “The Northman” ?

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    fefface
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    #1204236841

    Just saw some major spoilers on Twitter about Annette from a 2016 WIP script. I think it’s legit because it would fit with the weirdness of Carax.

    I saw those. Sounds like a fantastic showcase for Driver but it has to land with critics/audiences.

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    SN
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    #1204236845

    I hope Jane Campion becomes the first woman to be nominated twice in Directing.

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    wolfali
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    #1204236858

    Agreed! I’m also keeping a close eye on Delroy Lindo. He was definitely the buzziest snub of this last season, and while I still don’t believe in apology nominations being a thing, the general chatter surrounding his name can’t hurt him. The wild card supporting nominations I’m predicting at SAG (that will end up being snubbed at the Oscars) are Richard E. Grant for Everybody’s Talking About Jamie and Tiffany Haddish for The Card Counter.

    Richard E. Grant I think has the potential to go all the way to a nomination. It’s a showy performance that if well executed, I think critics can rally behind. He seems like such a Globe and SAG’s choice and one thing I feel quite confident in saying with Everybody’s Talking About Jamie is that it’s going to dominate the BAFTAs. Especially with the jury system in place for the acting shortlists.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Heptapod
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    #1204236860

    No “The Northman” ?

    I think SAG is the organization least likely to go for The Northman. It seems wild and dark and brutal and violent, something the SAG population wouldn’t really gravitate towards despite the quality of its cast.

    Emmys FYC: Maya Erskine in PEN15, Paapa Essiedu in I May Destroy You, Keeley Hawes in It's a Sin, Carl Lumbly in TFATWS, Cristin Milioti in Made for Love, Elizabeth Olsen in WandaVision, Billie Piper in I Hate Suzie, Hailee Steinfeld in Dickinson, William Zabka in Cobra Kai

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    George Ehret
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    #1204236903

    I mean if you’re going to say stuff like that, may as well say more…

    Well for one, I hear it’s a thriller. Not like Parasite, but more like Sicario. And Sicario was not well received by the Academy. Take this with a grain of salt, my senses/connections may be completely off base, but I’m not really feeling it atm.

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    Drusilla
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    #1204236905

    I think SAG is the organization least likely to go for The Northman. It seems wild and dark and brutal and violent, something the SAG population wouldn’t really gravitate towards despite the quality of its cast.

    You’re right. I think it will get a cinematography nom at the Oscars and that’s it. It’s probably too niche.

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