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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 8)

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    George Ehret
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    #1204236919

    The book also doesn’t sound like something that would make an Oscar-friendly movie just based on the plot description. But again, maybe I’m wrong.

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    SoniNon
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    #1204236950

    You’re right. I think it will get a cinematography nom at the Oscars and that’s it. It’s probably too niche.

    The budget is estimated to be $40-60 million. No one is throwing that at something “too niche.”

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    crabbie
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    #1204236984

    A lot of people state The Northman‘s all star cast is why Eggers will make the film more accessible but I don’t think that’s a compelling case. Kidman, Skarsgard, and Dafoe have all starred in Lars Von Trier films, the epitome of inaccessible controversial filmmaking. They are used to the strangeness and auteur visions of these type of directors. Now if Renee Zellweger or Christian Bale was in the film then I would think The Northman will most likely be accessible.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    wolfali
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    #1204236997

    The budget is estimated to be $40-60 million. No one is throwing that at something “too niche.”

    Ad Astra had a budget of $80-100 million.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    diego
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    #1204237015

    The Northman having such a high budget makes me a little more optimistic about its chances. The comparisons to The Lighthouse need to stop. The Lighthouse’s budget was 4 million and it was a horror film. The Northman is not that.

    If Eggers manages to get a high Rotten Tomatoes/Metacritic score as he did with his past films then The Northman is likely touching the Oscars.

    This has been said many times but this film is more like The Revenant/Gladiator than it is The Lighthouse/The Witch.

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    diego
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    #1204237019

    Ad Astra had a budget of $80-100 million.

    Ad Astra was intended to be an Oscar contender tho. It just flopped.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204237035

    The Northman having such a high budget makes me a little more optimistic about its chances. The comparisons to The Lighthouse need to stop. The Lighthouse’s budget was 4 million and it was a horror film. The Northman is not that. If Eggers manages to get a high Rotten Tomatoes/Metacritic score as he did with his past films then The Northman is likely touching the Oscars. This has been said many times but this film is more like The Revenant/Gladiator than it is The Lighthouse/The Witch.

    I definitely think it’s a crafts contender, but I’m not quite sure about Picture just yet. Need to see a trailer

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    crabbie
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    #1204237050

    I agree the comparisons of The Northman to Egger’s previous horror films aren’t really fair. The Northman sounds more like a historical epic. That being said I expect a lot of grim violence and blood splatter to perpetuate throughout the film that will be a turn off to AMPAS. Eggers really commits to authenticity of the source material so expect the cast to speak in thick heavy Icelandic accents that will require subtitles. I’m also bit concerned how AMPAS will respond to 3 historical dramas: The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Northman, and <i>The Last Duel</i>. One of them is bound to be left out.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    wolfali
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    #1204237052

    Ad Astra was intended to be an Oscar contender tho. It just flopped.

    Granted my point of my response to the user was more that just because a genre film has a high budget and an A lister involved, it doesn’t mean it’s going to automatically be an Oscar contender.

    The comparisons to The Lighthouse need to stop.

    I understand your frustration here but until we see a trailer or the film’s reactions from critics and audiences, all one can base their predictions on a film is the past performance of the director’s previous film.

    I do agree that if it does well with audiences and critics it has a strong chance but until then I see no reason why one cannot be sceptical (I say this as someone who thought The Lighthouse should have been an across the board contender and who has The Northman as one of their most anticipated films of this season).

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    wolfali
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    #1204237063

    I’m also bit concerned how AMPAS will respond to 3 historical dramas: The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Northman, and <i>The Last Duel</i>.

    This is also why I’m sceptical. I guess it could have a significant popularity with the zeitgeist but the film’s plot doesn’t seem as baity as a lot of the others in contention this year and it doesn’t seem to have a social factor like The Last Duel will probably have.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Louis Cypher
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    #1204237067

    You’re picking Ridley Scott’s stinkers and judging his career because of them. His biggest problem is ironically his productivity. You could pick Spielberg or Coppola apart the same way you did with Scott. They all have bad apples.

    With Gucci’s hype it’s less about Scott’s previous snubs and more that he has a great story, an insane cast, and a budget that most filmmakers don’t get to play with outside of Marvel/DC.

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    Babygirl
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    #1204237100

    Judging from The Northman’s producers, cast and budget, it should be obvious that it’s going to be more accessible than Eggers’ other films. Sure, organizations like SAG may not touch the film but I can see The Academy having a liking to it, especially if it’s like films like The Revenant etc.

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    bellajoe
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    #1204237132

    I think we should just remain skeptical but hopeful for The Northman. Same way I am viewing Anette. Both are from very well respected indie auteurs that could and should break in the oscar race, but likely will not.

    Thoughts on the prospects of ‘Don’t Worry Darling’? I just rewatched Booksmart and would love to see Olivia Wilde get award recognition.

     

     

    FYC Emmys 2021:
    Drama Series: Pose
    Drama Actress: MJ Rodriguez (Pose)
    Drama Supporting Actress: Emerald Fennell (The Crown)
    Limited Actress: Elizabeth Olsen (WandaVision) Zendaya (Euphoria)
    Limited Supporting Actress: Kathryn Hahn (WandaVision,) Hunter Schaffer (Euphoria)

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    JV
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    #1204237139

    I think we should just remain skeptical but hopeful for The Northman. Same way I am viewing Anette. Both are from very well respected indie auteurs that could and should break in the oscar race, but likely will not. Thoughts on the prospects of ‘Don’t Worry Darling’? I just rewatched Booksmart and would love to see Olivia Wilde get award recognition.

    I think this could be the Promising Young Woman of this season and Olivia could be the Fennell of this season. Like Fennell, Wilde has been generating a lot of buzz and she has a Marvel/Sony movie (Spider Woman) coming too.

    I just don’t know if the Academy will go for Don’t Worry Darling AND Last Night in Soho.

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    crabbie
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    #1204237165

    Olivia Wilde not writing Don’t Worry Darling has me skeptical. It has 3 writers and one of the writers wrote Titanic II and Chernobyl Diaries.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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