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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 8)

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    kaziz
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    #1204237169

    Well for one, I hear it’s a thriller. Not like Parasite, but more like Sicario. And Sicario was not well received by the Academy. Take this with a grain of salt, my senses/connections may be completely off base, but I’m not really feeling it atm.

    No, it’s a thriller the way Phantom Thread or The Piano are thrillers. There’s actually a shockingly small amount of action or violence, I don’t know what intel is comparing this to SICARIO. This isn’t a spaghetti Western lol

    It’s better described as a suspenseful character drama, fullstop. The film is basically a battle of wills between Phil—the owner of a ranch who is incredible arrogant, and highly intelligent—and the wife of his dull, quiet brother George, Rose. The suspense lies in what happens between Phil and Rose, how Phil chooses to play her, how Rose copes, and how Rose’s son Peter (at the end) comes into the picture. As a book, it is basically a total character study of these two very complicated characters (Phil particularly but also Rose). George isn’t enigmatic to begin with, and Peter remains enigmatic throughout. It’s…a drama, man, there’s no snipers and soldiers or cowboys. What……..lol

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    crabbie
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    #1204237177

    I heard there’s an abnormal amount of animal cruelty in The Power of the Dog book.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    Red
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    #1204237181

    We have BP and Joker in the past. 2020 was an worst comic book year. And The Batman coming in 2022. Maybe is than Eternals the best chance for Oscars. And Shang-Chi for SAG

    I think Eternals could get a SAG nom, almost the entire cast has been nominated or won major awards

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    kaziz
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    #1204237189

    I heard there’s an abnormal amount of animal cruelty in The Power of the Dog book.

    Yeah it’s set on a ranch—I wouldn’t say I know if there’ll be a lot of animal cruelty in the film, I do know it figures into the metaphors that Phil uses (as a man’s man, he likes to think of himself as a highly intelligent hunter and for the most part he is. He’s a butcher! The title is a play on him being that prowling “hunter/dog”) I actually think the most violent things about the book are what it says (says, not shows) about Phil (Cumberbatch’s characters) ideas about indigenous peoples as compared to Rose’s. If you look at the cast list, you’ll see quite a lot of indigenous cast members, and I’m beginning to think Campion’s going to really use that.

    But on the whole, there’s less interpersonal violence than even The Piano, but a lot more…hinted, unspoken violence just at the margins that really flesh out the characters. Rose is an open-minded woman, Phil is a close-minded, vengeful and sadistic man, but his sadism in the book is almost entirely psychological. So, maybe it’ll end up being just as violent as The Piano on the whole I don’t know. It’s certainly no SICARIO, and if it’s a thriller it’s a psychological thriller like There Will Be Blood. Honestly, the closest things I can compare visualizing the book to is probably There Will Be Blood. Phantom Thread for the kind of relationship that Day-Lewis and Krieps develop.

    There’s one BIG thing I’m not saying because saying it would be a spoiler.

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    kaziz
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    #1204237210

    You’re picking Ridley Scott’s stinkers and judging his career because of them. His biggest problem is ironically his productivity. You could pick Spielberg or Coppola apart the same way you did with Scott. They all have bad apples.

    With Gucci’s hype it’s less about Scott’s previous snubs and more that he has a great story, an insane cast, and a budget that most filmmakers don’t get to play with outside of Marvel/DC.

    Am I? 13 films since Black Hawk Down and I’m picking his stinkers? Can you really say that about Spielberg or Coppola? Or at least…his Oscar strike-out rate is way higher than theirs regardless of how you feel about his films. I LOVE Alien & Thelma and Louise, but come oooooooon how can you say a man who has made TWENTY-FIVE films, only being nominated 3 times for Best Director, the last time 2 decades ago (and unlike Campion, a LOT of films in that time period) is the same as someone like Campion or Spielberg or whoever

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    vinichelsea
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    #1204237218

    Another thing to keep in mind about 2022: viewership.

    I don’t think the Academy can afford the same kinds of numbers next year. Regardless of what you thought of this year’s edition, the numbers were appalling.

    Having one or two huge blockbuster movies nominated, with all the razzmatazz that it involves, immediately brings eyes to the event. That’s just a fact.

    I never agree with this kind of assessment. The Oscar is comprised of a number of voters who are actually people and will vote for whatever they want regardless of what the Academy wants. What the Academy can do is prioritize parties and events for the studios that will push these blockbusters (or rather, DISNEY) like the “Crash” campaign, but even if these events are put together, the campaign itself needs to be grounded on good FYCs and that’s not what usually happens in Superhero movies past technical categories.

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    crabbie
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    #1204237225

    Yeah it’s set on a ranch—I wouldn’t say I know if there’ll be a lot of animal cruelty in the film, I do know it figures into the metaphors that Phil uses (as a man’s man, he likes to think of himself as a highly intelligent hunter and for the most part he is. He’s a butcher! The title is a play on him being that prowling “hunter/dog”) I actually think the most violent things about the book are what it says (says, not shows) about Phil (Cumberbatch’s characters) ideas about indigenous peoples as compared to Rose’s. If you look at the cast list, you’ll see quite a lot of indigenous cast members, and I’m beginning to think Campion’s going to really use that. But on the whole, there’s less interpersonal violence than even The Piano, but a lot more…hinted, unspoken violence just at the margins that really flesh out the characters. Rose is an open-minded woman, Phil is a close-minded, vengeful and sadistic man, but his sadism in the book is almost entirely psychological. So, maybe it’ll end up being just as violent as The Piano on the whole I don’t know. It’s certainly no SICARIO, and if it’s a thriller it’s a psychological thriller like There Will Be Blood. Honestly, the closest things I can compare visualizing the book to is probably There Will Be Blood. Phantom Thread for the kind of relationship that Day-Lewis and Krieps develop. There’s one BIG thing I’m not saying because saying it would be a spoiler.

    I’m so excited for Campion’s vision on this novel. I’ve heard accounts of the ending being completely insane in the jawdsropping kind of way.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    kaziz
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    #1204237227

    I think we should just remain skeptical but hopeful for The Northman. Same way I am viewing Anette. Both are from very well respected indie auteurs that could and should break in the oscar race, but likely will not.

    I honestly don’t know what to think about The Northman just now except to keep a very open mind. Robert Eggers is a very interesting case: personally I think his films are exceptional and he’ll make it in on the same merit as perhaps his previous films didn’t. Even if it is more accessible, Eggers has an aesthetic: and at a certain point, that aesthetic becomes likable enough to become a big player, exactly like Yorgos Lanthimos and The Favourite. Sure, The Favourite is the most accessible of Lanthimos’ films, but it’s also still VERY weird.

    Besides, it’s not as easy to rule out traditionally-horror directors as it used to be (Lanthimos, Peele, del Toro, Joon Ho). There seems to be a trend of directors moving horror just enough into drama territory and then all of a sudden BIG CONTENDER!

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    kaziz
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    #1204237232

    I’m so excited for Campion’s vision on this novel. I’ve heard accounts of the ending being completely insane in the jawdsropping kind of way.

    Yeah lol I don’t wanna tell for that reason, it’s really the ending. But again, it’s all in the execution. The ending is…violent, in an unprecedented way, but the reason it’s violent is something I don’t want to spoil but something the reader picks up on fairly early on in the book.

    It’s like if The Piano revealed Sam Neill’s horrible act of violence towards Holly Hunter was due to her affair with Harvey Keitel and we didn’t know about the affair before then. I doubt Campion’s going to keep the reason a secret, that would be hokey, but also it’ll ruin the experience.

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    vinichelsea
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    #1204237243

    Well I mean, duh. Plemons’ character is basically the definition of a background character who is there for Cumberbatch’s to dump on him. He’s there in the beginning, middle and end, but he hardly speaks and when he’s there he’s mostly a canvas for Cumberbatch’s or Dunst’s characters. I’m slightly oversimplifying but yes theoretically Plemons could have as much screen time as Cumberbatch but he still won’t feel like a lead.

    But this is not what I mean.

    What I mean is that by reading the book, Cumberbatch would be the lead, but there is not enough ground IN THE BOOK to argue that Dunst could be lead and Plemons supporting comparing both characters. Either both men are lead and the rest is supporting, or Cumberbatch is the only lead.

    Right now I’m also banking on Dunst being lead and Plemons supporting but I’m only doing it for Awards purpose.

    All in all I’m really looking forward to it and people who think it’s not Oscar-friendly should read it beyond the synopses, it is a dense, complex and dynamic character study and an insane material for Cumberbatch, Dunst, Plemons and Smit-McPhee.

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    fefface
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    #1204237245

    Am I? 13 films since Black Hawk Down and I’m picking his stinkers? Can you really say that about Spielberg or Coppola? Or at least…his Oscar strike-out rate is way higher than theirs regardless of how you feel about his films. I LOVE Alien & Thelma and Louise, but come oooooooon how can you say a man who has made TWENTY-FIVE films, only being nominated 3 times for Best Director, the last time 2 decades ago (and unlike Campion, a LOT of films in that time period) is the same as someone like Campion or Spielberg or whoever

    Not all of Scott’s films have been ‘Oscar’ films so it’s not really fair to compare his films to nominations ratio.

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    kaziz
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    #1204237249

    I’m so excited for Campion’s vision on this novel.

    For the actors I’ll say this:
    – I’ve never seen Cumberbatch take on such a complex role before. Period.
    – I’ve rarely seen Plemons play such a gentle role. Maybe…Fargo, ironically.
    – Dunst gets to do something I’m not sure she’s ever done before. She’s played shades of a character like this before but very rarely.

    On that note, I rewatched All Good Things yesterday, and I’m sorry, but THAT PERFORMANCE by Dunst (the year before Melancholia) is better than 75% of supporting actress winners, let alone nominees. She deservvvvvvvved, and All Good Things doesn’t often make it onto lists of films she’s been snubbed for. She’s so fantastic in it she blows both Ryan Gosling & Frank Langella out off the water.

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    kaziz
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    #1204237257

    But this is not what I mean.

    What I mean is that by reading the book, Cumberbatch would be the lead, but there is not enough ground IN THE BOOK to argue that Dunst could be lead and Plemons supporting comparing both characters. Either both men are lead and the rest is supporting, or Cumberbatch is the only lead.

    Right now I’m also banking on Dunst being lead and Plemons supporting but I’m only doing it for Awards purpose.

    All in all I’m really looking forward to it and people who think it’s not Oscar-friendly should read it beyond the synopses, it is a dense, complex and dynamic character study and an insane material for Cumberbatch, Dunst, Plemons and Smit-McPhee.

    OK I see what you mean. I don’t think the two men are lead so I’ll go with Cumberbatch is the only lead because the whole point of the book is who Phil is as a person. The book’s barely interested in George. He moves some things along.

    So, yes, Cumberbatch is the only lead in the book, but Rose in the book is probably the 2nd character you think the book might be about, and if Campion elevates her character (as indications would seem), then it may be just as much about who Rose is as who Phil is. And this would be in the long sections of the book where George is basically absent (and Phil and Rose are alone at the ranch).

    Even then, I think it’ll be mostly Cumberbatch’s show. Dunst—I believe—will be mildly category-frauded into Lead to make room for McKenzie and Conroy, but I suppose it totally depends on how much Campion shifts the script. McKenzie’s presence…baffles me.

    Also, THANK YOU for pointing out how much Smit-McPhee has to play with. It’s a GREAT role for any young actor. I’d argue he actually has a better role than Plemons, even if Plemons is more likely to get a nod because…he’s Plemons.

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    kaziz
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    #1204237267

    Not all of Scott’s films have been ‘Oscar’ films so it’s not really fair to compare his films to nominations ratio.

    So, basically, you mean…Blade Runner, Exodus: Gods and Kings, Prometheus, and Alien: Covenant. 4 of his 25 films. Okay. (As a sidebar: did everything except BR have to be so bad? Exodus is like Christian Bale’s Prince of Persia…oof. Just…bad.)

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    George Ehret
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    #1204237307

    Alright, fine, I’ll bump Park Chan-wook for Jane Campion, but if my instincts turn out to be right I’m cutting everyone’s car breaks

    FYC
    Everything Everywhere All at Once for everything, everywhere, all at once

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