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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 8)

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    RIDLEY SCOTT
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    #1204238513

    Ridley Scott won 3 Lifetime Achievement Awards in the last 5 years: DGAs, ASCs and BAFTAs. I don’t know if that is good or bad for the Oscars but it’s an interesting fact

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    walkinuniverse
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    #1204238518

    I’m still wondering how Adam McKay got an ensemble of A-listers for DLU if the script was THAT bad.

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    lolo's
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    #1204238537

    I only have Don’t Look Up as a placeholder for now but I think what’s really worth mentioning is the film’s poor timing. A satire with A listers about a global disaster isn’t going to go down well with audiences.

    Case in point look at Death to 2020.

    Do you mean the movie that has been longer in Netflix’s Top 10 (both US and worldwide) than other movies like Mank, Ma Rainey’s, Hillbilly, Trial, Pieces of a Woman…?

    It might be more of a commercial play (which can happen also to Don’t Look Up) but sure it was seen by wider audiences

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    Chocoesq
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    #1204238543

    Don’t Look Up doesn’t seem like something they will land acting noms based off the screenplay, but who knows what the academy is thinking this year to try to pull ratings back.

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    JV
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    #1204238549

    Don’t sleep on A Mouthful of Air. It is a movie about a writer who suffers from post-partum depression, and Amanda Seyfried could land another nom.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204238554

    I’m still wondering how Adam McKay got an ensemble of A-listers for DLU if the script was THAT bad.

    He’s Adam fucking McKay, that’s how.

    Don’t sleep on A Mouthful of Air. It is a movie about a writer who suffers from post-partum depression, and Amanda Seyfried could land another nom.

    I have my eye on it, I even have Seyfried in my predicted five

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    Delilah
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    #1204238558

    A very detailed and comprehensive list. Personally I’m very excited by “The Power of the Dog,” but will it be great enough to win the Big One for Netflix? I’m curious why you don’t include “Blonde” on your list. Have you heard anything about it? Joyce Carol Oates was blown away by a rough cut of it, but then she wrote the novel it’s based on. “Annette” intrigues me the most. I trust Spielberg to make “West Side Story” fresh and exciting. You also seemed to have dissed “Don’t Look Up,” but I’m skeptical of it myself. How about George Miller’s “Three Thousand Years of Longing?” I would think that would have great potential.

    Everything I’ve heard about Blonde says it’s very, very out there and probably too weird and inaccessible for the Academy. Think mother! if not in story at least in spirit.

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    SoniNon
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    #1204238602

    I swear “accessible” or “inaccessible” is mentioned on almost every single page.

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    Oleageoun
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    #1204238636

    The Northman is gonna be a huge hit. Vikings are all the rage now and The Lighthouse made all the bros Robert Eggers fan. Don’t know if that’ll help its oscar chances though.

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    vinichelsea
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    #1204238685

    EARLY MAY PREDICTIONS:

    Best Picture (Produced by / Distributed in the U.S. by):
    01 – NIGHTMARE ALLEY (Searchlight / Searchlight)
    02 – THE LAST DUEL (20th Century Studios / 20th Century Studios)
    03 – THE POWER OF THE DOG (BBC Films / Netflix)
    04 – THREE THOUSAND YEARS OF LONGING (MGM / MGM)
    05 – WEST SIDE STORY (20th Century Studios / Disney)
    06 – THE NORTHMAN (New Regency / Focus)
    07 – DUNE (Warner Bros. / Warner Bros.)
    08 – PASSING (Film4 / Netflix)
    09 – BLUE BAYOU (Entertainment One / Focus)
    10 – CODA (Pathé Films / Apple)

    Best Leading Actor:
    01 – Adam Driver – THE LAST DUEL
    02 – Benedict Cumberbatch – THE ELECTRIC LIFE OF LOUIS WAIN
    03 – Justin Chon – BLUE BAYOU
    04 – Brendan Fraser – THE WHALE
    05 – Clifton Collins Jr. – JOCKEY

    Best Leading Actress:
    01 – Amanda Seyfried – A MOUTHFUL OF AIR
    02 – Tessa Thompson – PASSING
    03 – Kirsten Dunst – THE POWER OF THE DOG
    04 – Jessica Chastain – THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE
    05 – Kristen Stewart – SPENCER

    Best Supporting Actor:
    01 – Jesse Plemons – THE POWER OF THE DOG
    02 – Richard Jenkins – NIGHTMARE ALLEY
    03 – Kodi Smit-McPhee – THE POWER OF THE DOG
    04 – Willem Dafoe – THE NORTHMAN
    05 – Brian Tyree Henry – RED WHITE AND WATER

    Best Supporting Actress:
    01 – Jodie Comer – THE LAST DUEL
    02 – Cate Blanchett – NIGHTMARE ALLEY
    03 – Marlee Matlin – CODA
    04 – Ruth Negga – PASSING
    05 – Ariana DeBose – WEST SIDE STORY

    Best Director:
    01 – Guillermo Del Toro – NIGHTMARE ALLEY
    02 – Ridley Scott – THE LAST DUEL
    03 – Jane Campion – THE POWER OF THE DOG
    04 – George Miller – THREE THOUSAND YEARS OF LONGING
    05 – Rebecca Hall – PASSING

    Best Original Screenplay:
    01 – Justin Chon – BLUE BAYOU
    02 – Amy Koppelman – A MOUTHFUL OF AIR
    03 – Edgar Wright & Krysty Wilson-Cairn – LAST NIGHT IN SOHO
    04 – Wes Anderson – THE FRENCH DISPATCH
    05 – Aaron Sorkin – BEING THE RICARDOS

    Best Adapted Screenplay:
    01 – Ben Affleck, Matt Damon & Nicole Holofcener – THE LAST DUEL
    02 – Jane Campion – THE POWER OF THE DOG
    03 – Guillermo Del Toro & Kim Morgan – NIGHTMARE ALLEY
    04 – Samuel D. Hunter – THE WHALE
    05 – Sian Heder – CODA

    Best Film Editing:
    01 – Claire Simpson – THE LAST DUEL
    02 – Cam McLauchlin – NIGHTMARE ALLEY
    03 – Michael Kahn & Sarah Broshar – WEST SIDE STORY
    04 – Margaret Sixel – THREE THOUSAND YEARS OF LONGING
    05 – Paul Machliss – LAST NIGHT IN SOHO

    Best Cinematography:
    01 – Dan Lausten – NIGHTMARE ALLEY
    02 – Dariusz Wolski – THE LAST DUEL
    03 – Jarin Blaschke – THE NORTHMAN
    04 – Ari Wegner – THE POWER OF THE DOG
    05 – John Seale – THREE THOUSAND YEARS OF LONGING

    Best Production Design:
    01 – Adam Stockhausen & Rena DeAngelo – THE FRENCH DISPATCH
    02 – Tamara Deverell & Shane Vieau – NIGHTMARE ALLEY
    03 – Arthur Max & Judy Farr – THE LAST DUEL
    04 – Adam Stockhausen & Rena DeAngelo – WEST SIDE STORY
    05 – Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer – CYRANO

    Best Costume Design:
    01 – Luis Sequeira – NIGHTMARE ALLEY
    02 – Milena Canonero – THE FRENCH DISPATCH
    03 – Janty Yates – HOUSE OF GUCCI
    04 – Jacqueline Durran – SPENCER
    05 – Massimo Cantini Parrini – CYRANO

    Best Make Up and Hairstyling:
    01 – THE NORTHMAN
    02 – LAST NIGHT IN SOHO
    03 – THREE THOUSAND YEARS OF LONGING
    04 – HOUSE OF GUCCI
    05 – DUNE

    Best Sound:
    01 – THREE THOUSAND YEARS OF LONGING
    02 – WEST SIDE STORY
    03 – THE NORTHMAN
    04 – LAST NIGHT IN SOHO
    05 – DUNE

    Best Original Score:
    01 – Jonny Greenwood – THE POWER OF THE DOG
    02 – Dan Romer – LUCA
    03 – Alexander Desplat – NIGHTMARE ALLEY
    04 – Hans Zimmer – DUNE
    05 – Aaron Dessner & Bryce Dessner – JOCKEY

    Best Visual Effects:
    01 – ETERNALS
    02 – THREE THOUSAND YEARS OF LONGING
    03 – THE NORTHMAN
    04 – THE TOMORROW WAR
    05 – DUNE

    Best Documentary:
    01 – SUMMER OF SOUL
    02 – THE FIRST WAVE
    03 – FLEE
    04 – A COP MOVIE
    05 – BOEING 737 MAX

    Best Animation:
    01 – LUCA
    02 – ENCANTO
    03 – MY FATHER’S DRAGON
    04 – THE MITCHELLS VS. THE MACHINES
    05 – HOW DO YOU LIVE?

    Best International Film:
    01 – TRIANGLE OF SADNESS (Sweden)
    02 – AHED’S KNEE (Israel)
    03 – BENEDETTA (France)
    04 – HIVE (Kosovo)
    05 – DECISION TO LEAVE (South Korea)

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    kaziz
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    #1204238706

    Firstly, I’m not acting like he’s Scorsese. Secondly, I’m not denying that he’s made some bad movies, nor am I saying he’s underrated.

    And yeah sure Gaga is having a big impact on the hype for Gucci, again literally no one is denying that, but the movie also has a stacked cast of people who aren’t Gaga who are having an impact on it being predicted. The entire main cast has either been nominated for or won an acting Oscar.

    Honestly this post sounds like you’re just mad about Gaga. But let’s move on.

    I’m actually far more mad about Ridley Scott. But here’s the thing: if you’d made the Gaga argument, I can get on board with it. One way or the other, unless the film TOTALLY bombs, Gucci can be a player simply because of the immense hype and crowd-pleaser nature of it, kinda like Bohemian Rhapsody I suppose. I can see that happening, and it may have nothing to do with whether it’s deserving or not, or whether it gets critical acclaim or not.

    Re: “the movie has a stacked cast”, literally all of Ridley Scott’s movies have stacked casts. He has never had any real trouble getting a bunch of A-listers together, even through his many stinkers. The only person that matters is……Gaga, lol.

    Am I mad about Gaga? I dunno, maybe, but only because I know that even if she doesn’t totally bring it, people will flock to Gucci. Gaga—and most huge musicians, but only a few—is a global superstar in the way that almost no A-list actors are. You don’t see this amount of hype even for Leo or Streep or Lawrence’s films. The sheer scale of it is immense, enough to be very annoying, and fortunately or unfortunately, enough to also get into the Oscars!

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    kaziz
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    #1204238710

    Much to my displeasure, because I’d love to see it in this race, but nonetheless SUPER PSYCHED to watch it, Park Chan-wook’s The Sympathizer is a TV series. https://www.indiewire.com/2021/04/park-chan-wook-a24-television-sympathizer-1234628538/

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    borisy
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    #1204238712

    It will be 2018 all over again

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    ESS
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    Oct 28th, 2019
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    #1204238716

    Last Night in Soho seems so overrated already, can’t see it going much beyond techs. Already mourning for Toni Collette, she may sweep critics again and be snubbed due to genre bias. The Academy doesn’t only need to diversify membership based on race but also diversity attitudes to genre.

    Hereditary says hello to Nightmare Alley.

    Having just watched “I’m Thinking of Ending Things”, I think Collette was great in her supporting turn in the film. I hope she overcomes the bias like she did in “The Sixth Sense”.

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    kaziz
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    #1204238718

    Oh whoops, I completely did not realize it was Decision to Leave and not The Sympathizer y’all were discussing Park Chan-wook for. Didn’t even know about Decision to Leave! Huge fan regardless, he’s amazing.

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