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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 9)

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    wolfali
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    #1204247352

    “Pieces of a Woman” was completely shelved by Netflix

    This is untrue.

    Netflix were campaigning hard for Kirby and Burstyn until the winter awards getting them to do interview after interview with all sorts of publications (most notably Variety) and plucked multiple Oscar nominated thespians out of thin air to interview Kirby and gush over her performance until the Oscar nominations were announced (Amy Adams, Rosamund Pike).

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    vinichelsea
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    #1204247357

    And about “Spencer”, I remember the discussion about the writer and I checked “Jackie” and saw that the writer there had only written two screenplays: “Maze Runner” and “Allegiant”. I don’t know if Larrain has a thing for weird writers but now I actually feel better about “Spencer”!

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    vinichelsea
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    #1204247359

    This is untrue.

    Netflix were campaigning hard for Kirby and Burstyn until the winter awards getting them to do interview after interview with all sorts of publications (most notably Variety) and plucked multiple Oscar nominated thespians out of thin air to interview Kirby and gush over her performance until the Oscar nominations were announced (Amy Adams, Rosamund Pike).

    I don’t remember Variety having a “Pieces of a Woman” cover, but if it did it’s good to remind that Variety signs early contracts with Production Companies so the cover was a BRON thing, not Netflix.

    Netflix produces FYC campaigns and if you think they campaign “hard” for these actresses then maybe you’re satisfied with just a little because when you compare the FYCs of “Pieces of a Woman” with “Trial of the Chicago 7”, “Ma Rainey” and “Mank” and even movies from other distributors like “Minari” in A24 and “The U.S. vs Billie Holliday” from freaking HULU you see that they were doing the bare mininum.

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    mateil
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    #1204247361

    My predictions in the main categories right now(without Killers of The Flower Moon and Limbo which I think will be 2022 releases):

    BEST PICTURE:
    1. Dune
    2. The French Dispatch
    3. The Northman
    4. Soggy Bottom
    5. Nightmare Alley
    6. West Side Story
    7. The Tragedy of Macbeth
    8. Coda
    9. Mass
    10. Next Goal Wins
    Next in line: C’mon, C’mon, House of Gucci, Annette, The Last Duel, Last Night In Soho, Canterburry Glass

    BEST DIRECTOR:
    1. Denis Villeneuve – Dune
    2. Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch
    3. Robert Eggers – The Northman
    4. Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom
    5. Guillermo Del Toro – Nightmare Alley
    Next in line: Joel Coen, Sian Heder, Ridley Scott, Steven Spielberg

    BEST ACTOR:
    1. Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth
    2. Jason Isaacs – Mass
    3. Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom
    4. Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon, C’mon
    5. Adam Driver – House of Gucci/Annette/The Last Duel
    Next in line: Michael Fassbender, Timothee Chalamet, Christian Bale, Alexander Skarsgard, Oscar Isaac

    BEST ACTRESS:
    1. Kristen Stewart – Spencer
    2. Ana De Armas – Blonde
    3. Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth
    4. Emilia Jones – Coda
    5. Martha Plimpton – Mass
    Next in line: Cate Blanchett, Lady Gaga, Jennifer Hudson, Marion Cottilard

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
    1. Willem Dafoe – The Northman/The Card Counter/Nightmare Alley
    2. Brendan Gleeson – The Tragedy of Macbeth
    3. Al Pacino – House of Gucci
    4. Timothee Chalamet – The French Dispatch
    5. Eugenio Derbez – Coda
    Next in line: Benicio del Toro, Jared Leto, Jeffrey Wright

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
    1. Ann Dowd – Mass
    2. Elisabeth Moss – Next Goal Wins
    3. Rebecca Ferguson – Dune
    4. Frances McDormand – The French Dispatch
    5. Anya Taylor-Joy – The Northman/Last Night In Soho
    Next in line: Tiffany Haddish, Rooney Mara, Rita Moreno, Diana Rigg

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
    1. The French Dispatch
    2. Soggy Bottom
    3. Mass
    4. Coda
    5. The Northman
    Next in line: C’mon, C’mon, The Card Counter, Annette, Canterburry Glass, Last Night in Soho

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
    1. Dune
    2. Next Goal Wins
    3. Nightmare Alley
    4. The Tragedy of Macbeth
    5. House of Gucci
    Next in line: West Side Story, The Last Duel, The Power of The Dog

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    vinichelsea
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    #1204247364

    I think that the only campaigns that were worse than “Pieces of a Woman” were “The Father” (in the beginning) with Sony making the whole mess with the DVD screeners and obviously “Tenet”, but “Pieces of a Woman” is right there with the director getting embarrassed in the first interview and having to defend the movie against the questions about Shia LeBouf.

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    wolfali
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    #1204247406

    Netflix produces FYC campaigns and if you think they campaign “hard” for these actresses then maybe you’re satisfied with just a little because when you compare the FYCs of “Pieces of a Woman” with “Trial of the Chicago 7”, “Ma Rainey” and “Mank” and even movies from other distributors like “Minari” in A24 and “The U.S. vs Billie Holliday” from freaking HULU you see that they were doing the bare mininum.

    Just because they had a more focused campaign for Kirby and Burstyn (because they were the only elements of the film that stood a chance at a nomination) it doesn’t mean that they “did the bare minimum”.

    Netflix campaigned those films you mentioned because they were bigger Picture contenders but that didn’t neccessrily mean they campaigned Lily Collins more than Ellen Burstyn or Glenn Close (for Hillbilly Elegy) for example. Netflix hardly even pushed for Gary Oldman to get nominated.

    The Green Knight is a film that’s more likely to fall in the Pieces of a Woman/The Midnight Sky camp than the Mank/Chicago 7 camp (which The Tragedy of Macbeth will probably fit in A24’s campaigning).

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    vinichelsea
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    #1204247408

    Just because they had a more focused campaign for Kirby and Burstyn (because they were the only elements of the film that stood a chance at a nomination) it doesn’t mean that they “did the bare minimum”.

    LOL yes, it does. It’s literally the reason.

    Netflix hardly even pushed for Gary Oldman to get nominated.

    Yes, because they didn’t have to, since they were not doing “the bare minimum” in the Mank campaign, quite the opposite with the amount of useless memorabilia they sent. It makes no sense to run a campaign for Gary Oldman separate from the movie when they were doing it for Chadwick Boseman.

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    Croman
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    #1204247411

    Is Bradley Cooper lead for Soggy Bottom? I thought the story revolves around Cooper Hoffman and Bradley is a major supporting character. I think he goes lead for Nightmare Alley and supporting for Soggy Bottom if he wants the noms.

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    Stank83
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    #1204247449

    Is Bradley Cooper lead for Soggy Bottom? I thought the story revolves around Cooper Hoffman and Bradley is a major supporting character. I think he goes lead for Nightmare Alley and supporting for Soggy Bottom if he wants the noms.

    He’s Supporting for Soggy Bottom, but I’m not sure if he’ll get the nom.
    Didn’t he shoot for only two weeks or something?
    Wouldn’t be surprised if actually Benny Safdie gets it in his place, the rumored part of the closeted politician looks baitier.

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    boogiezen
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    #1204247451

    Some are pressed around here. Lol. The only movie IMO Anya getting an attention will be on The Northman, assuming the release will be this year. I really think she has good role in it. Her and Eggers worked well. I doubt about Last Night in Soho because Edgar hasn’t done any movie with good female characters. That DOR movie sounds like a long shot because it’s an ensemble and I don’t think her role is big enough to be considered as supporting.

    As for House of Gucci, if the movie managed to get at least an 80-90 Metacritic/RT with good BO numbers and no mixed reactions then I expect the movie to be one of the frontrunners.

    Ruth Negga will be the frontrunner in Best Supporting Actress for Passing. Book it.

    And the Tragedy of Macbeth sounds an actor’s film which will win SAG and even the Oscars.

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    vinichelsea
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    #1204247463

    Some are pressed around here. Lol. The only movie IMO Anya getting an attention will be on The Northman, assuming the release will be this year. I really think she has good role in it.

    Do you know anything about her role or you’re just guessing? Curious because on IMDb it doesn’t even have a name.

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    Croman
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    #1204247489

    Wouldn’t be surprised if actually Benny Safdie gets it in his place, the rumored part of the closeted politician looks baitier.

    Now that you’ve mentioned it, a Benny Safdie Oscar nomination needs to happen now.

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    kaziz
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    #1204247507

    And the Tragedy of Macbeth sounds an actor’s film which will win SAG and even the Oscars.

    I’m pretty persuaded by the skeptics for Tragedy of Macbeth on here, to be honest. For a fairly simple reason. Shakespeare has been done generally so many times & Macbeth is arguably after Romeo & Juliet the most famous—even if people haven’t seen past adaptations, they’re likely to know the story very well. And frankly—it’s just stale! It’s hard to get immense passion around something that’s been done that many times.

    The closest and best-case-scenario comparison I can think of probably Gerwig’s Little Women & of course Joel Coen’s going to do fun new things to the story and approach. But Little Women is a classic that is essentially made to tug at the heartstrings—it’s beloved in a very different way to Macbeth because A, it’s a childhood rite of passage, B, it’s not a play that’s learned mostly by theatre kids and actors.

    Doing fun, new things with Shakespeare is also hardly a new concept—from comedic & modern like 10 Things I Hate About You to surreal like Julie Taymor’s The Tempest to modern tragedy like Baz Luhrmann’s Romeo + Juliet. The most successful with the Oscars is probably West Side Story. On the opposite end, even the most traditional adaptations like Kenneth Branagh’s have never hit BP, even when they got a few nods elsewhere.

    In other words: doing tricksy things with Macbeth might work technically really, really, really well but it’s hard for me to see people having strong emotional responses to it like they do for films like Nomadland, Parasite, Moonlight, The Shape of Water etc. Has anyone seen the King Lear with Anthony Hopkins, Emma Thompson, Emily Watson, and Florence Pugh? It has a 76 on Metacritic, and I think it’s actually somewhat good—but it was also kinda hard for me to give a shit.

    I don’t know what the precedent for Tragedy of Macbeth is. I can’t think of a harder task—I am intrigued, no doubt, but still skeptical.

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    crabbie
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    #1204247513

    At this point I think the acting branch will carry Macbeth to a Best Picture nomination. Denzel and Frances are obviously highly lauded by the branch that it might just work. And yeah Frances has insane good will right now. It seems like a film that misses Globes and BAFTA but makes it in pGA then the Oscars. I seriously wonder how Joel’s adaptation will differ than previous adaptions. I’m very skeptical on him making director but if the film is nominated for picture I think Coen would be nominated for director too since the film seems like such an auteur piece (Black & White and all that).

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    schmids
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    #1204247686

    I feel like it’s very apt casting for someone playing a reckless man who hurts his family’s image by having an affair.

    Well yes, but that’s his personal life. There’s nothing about him as an actor that gives me the impression he will do a good Charles.

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