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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 9)

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    braydenfitzsimmons
    Joined:
    May 3rd, 2015
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    #1204241585

    New thread / May predictions

    Best Picture:
    Decision to Leave (TBD)
    Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
    Dune (Warner Bros.)
    Eternals (Disney)
    House of Gucci (MGM)
    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)
    Passing (Netflix)
    Spencer (NEON)
    The Card Counter (Focus)
    The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

    Best Director:
    Jane Campion, The Power of Dog
    Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
    Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
    Guillermo Del Toro, Nightmare Alley
    Denis Villeneuve, Dune

    Best Actor:
    Benedict Cumberbatch, The Electric Life of Louis Wain
    Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
    Adam Driver, House of Gucci
    Park Hae-il, Decision to Leave
    Will Smith, King Richard

    Best Actress:
    Kristen Dunst, The Power of the Dog
    Tiffany Haddish, The Card Counter
    Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
    Kristen Stewart, Spencer
    Tessa Thompson, Passing

    Best Supporting Actor:
    Andre Holland, Passing
    Richard Jenkins, Nightmare Alley
    Eduardo Minett, Cry Macho
    Al Pacino, House of Gucci
    Jesse Plemmons, The Power of the Dog

    Best Supporting Actress:
    Björk, The Northman
    Kaitlyn Dever, Dear Evan Hansen
    Marlee Matlin, CODA
    Ruth Negga, Passing
    Diana Riggs, Last Night in Soho

    Best Original Screenplay:
    Decision to Leave
    Don’t Look Up
    Last Night in SoHo
    Soggy Bottom
    The Card Counter

    Best Adapted Screenplay:
    Cry Macho
    Nightmare Alley
    Passing
    The Power of the Dog
    Zola

    Best Film Editing:
    Decision to Leave
    Don’t Look Up
    Dune
    The Card Counter
    West Side Story

    Best Cinematography:
    Decision to Leave
    Dune
    The French Dispatch
    The Northman
    Passing

    Best Costume Design:
    Coming 2 America
    Cruella
    The French Dispatch
    House of Gucci
    Spencer

    Best Production Design:
    Cyrano
    Dune
    The French Dispatch
    Nightmare Alley
    The Northman

    Best Makeup & Hairstyling:
    The French Dispatch
    House of Gucci
    The Many Saints of Newark
    The Northman
    Spencer

    Best Original Score:
    Ramin Dajawadi, Eternals
    Alexandre Desplat, Nightmare Alley
    Jonny Greenwood, Spencer
    Hildur Guonadottir, Canterbury Glass
    Hans Zimmer, Dune
    Dan Romer, Luca

    Best Original Song:
    “Beginning Middle End”, To All the Boys: Always and Forever
    “No Time to Die”, No Time to Die
    “So May We Start”, Annette (Sparks)
    “TBA”, Don’t Look Up (Ariana Grande)
    “TBA”, Dear Evan Hansen (Paesk, Paul & Platt)

    Best Sound:
    CODA
    Dune
    Eternals
    A Quiet Place: Part II
    West Side Story

    Best Visual Effects:
    A Quiet Place Part II
    Dune
    Eternals
    Godzilla vs Kong
    Top Gun Maverick

    Emmys FYC | Alan Tudyk in “Resident Alien” | Billie Piper in “I Hate Suzie” | Ego Nwodim in “Saturday Night Live” | Kaley Cuoco in “Harley Quinn” | “Dickinson” | “P-Valley” | “Pose” | “Superstore”

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    Dan Backslide
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    #1204241591

    There’s also zero chance he wins the Best Actor category even if he won a Tony for the role, given that Hollywood rewards meatier performances

    Except his performance onstage was extremely meaty and he’s reprising one of the biggest and most challenging showcase roles in the Broadway canon which previously earned him through the roof raves. Not saying he’s winning, but the justification that there’s meatier performances is very flawed.

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    CuriousHedgehog
    Joined:
    Mar 15th, 2018
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    #1204241593

    Best Original Song:
    “Beginning Middle End”, To All the Boys: Always and Forever
    “No Time to Die”, No Time to Die
    “So May We Start”, Annette (Sparks)
    “TBA”, Don’t Look Up (Ariana Grande)
    “TBA”, Dear Evan Hansen (Paesk, Paul & Platt)

    If the rumour that Lady Gaga is doing the theme for Top Gun: Maverick is true will that place one of these?

    FYC:

    Best Screenplay: Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Eliza Hitman)
    Best Actress: Sidney Flanigan ("Never Rarely Sometimes Always")

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    fefface
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    Jan 14th, 2020
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    #1204241605

    Except his performance onstage was extremely meaty and he’s reprising one of the biggest and most challenging showcase roles in the Broadway canon which previously earned him through the roof raves. Not saying he’s winning, but the justification that there’s meatier performances is very flawed.

    He’s reprising a role he’s far too old to play, and looks far too old to play, which will probably be distracting. You can get away with it on stage but not on film.

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    Dan Backslide
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    #1204241612

    He’s reprising a role he’s far too old to play, and looks far too old to play, which will probably be distracting. You can get away with it on stage but not on film.

    There’s been less convincing teens in recent memory that have gotten away with it. Hell, just look at Florence Pugh last year who was playing way beyond her age range. Few complained because her performance was strong enough to overcome it, and if Platt’s performance is of a similar quality to his Broadway work, he’ll overcome it as well.

    Anyway, that’s not the point I’m talking about. What I said was you can’t say dismiss his chances by saying they’ll reward meatier performances when most everyone who saw his original work would agree it’s meaty to say the least. Not to mention we don’t know how meaty the conception is because almost nothing has been seen this early in the game.

    And now, I go back into hibernation.

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    Luke Dias
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    Aug 15th, 2017
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    #1204241627

    Except his performance onstage was extremely meaty and he’s reprising one of the biggest and most challenging showcase roles in the Broadway canon which previously earned him through the roof raves. Not saying he’s winning, but the justification that there’s meatier performances is very flawed.

    Maybe I should rephrase: the Oscars are probably wanting a more catering, substantial role, and musicals haven’t supplied that in a long time. Les Mis and La La Land had the period and Hollywood aspects respectively, while Dear Evan Hansen is more of a coming-of-age drama in concept. Evan’s definitely a complex character, but the Academy has practically never rewarded films of that John Hughes aesthetic.

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    fefface
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    #1204241629

    There’s been less convincing teens in recent memory that have gotten away with it. Hell, just look at Florence Pugh last year who was playing way beyond her age range. Few complained because her performance was strong enough to overcome it, and if Platt’s performance is of a similar quality to his Broadway work, he’ll overcome it as well.

    Florence Pugh is younger than Ben Platt, and looks younger than Ben Platt does. Platt wasn’t close to being a convincing teenager in The Politician and that was a couple of years ago now.

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    Dan Backslide
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    Apr 24th, 2016
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    #1204241635

    Florence Pugh is younger than Ben Platt, and looks younger than Ben Platt does. Platt wasn’t close to being a convincing teenager in The Politician and that was a couple of years ago now.

    Small lie earlier cause I have a last thing to say. Florence Pugh was playing several different ages in Little Women, but she went as young as thirteen. That’s a much bigger stretch then Platt playing eighteen. There are eighteen year olds who look like him. There aren’t thirteen year olds who look like her.

    Also nobody was a convincing teen on that show, partially due to casting, but also because of unrealistically older sounding dialogue and overly mature looking costumes.

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    braydenfitzsimmons
    Joined:
    May 3rd, 2015
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    #1204241642

    Florence Pugh is younger than Ben Platt, and looks younger than Ben Platt does. Platt wasn’t close to being a convincing teenager in The Politician and that was a couple of years ago now.

    He was an actual teenager while filming Pitch Perfect and still looked more like a College Senior than a Freshman.

    Emmys FYC | Alan Tudyk in “Resident Alien” | Billie Piper in “I Hate Suzie” | Ego Nwodim in “Saturday Night Live” | Kaley Cuoco in “Harley Quinn” | “Dickinson” | “P-Valley” | “Pose” | “Superstore”

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    fefface
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    #1204241653

    Small lie earlier cause I have a last thing to say. Florence Pugh was playing several different ages in Little Women, but she went as young as thirteen. That’s a much bigger stretch then Platt playing eighteen. There are eighteen year olds who look like him. There aren’t thirteen year olds who look like her. Also nobody was a convincing teen on that show, partially due to casting, but also because of unrealistically older sounding dialogue and overly mature looking costumes.

    I mean I’ve never seen an 18 year old that looks like Platt. Also Pugh isn’t an accurate comparison – as you mentioned, she was also playing the more age-appropriate version of her character, whereas Platt isn’t.

    Either way I’m not sure the movie is the kind of thing that gets nominated at the Oscars even if he’s good in it.

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    vinichelsea
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    Jul 5th, 2011
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    #1204241667

    There’s a rumour around about “The Power of the Dog” and “The Card Counter” for the Venice Festival… has anyone heard it? I think these are two great choices but if they’re reserved for Venice it means they are most likely not going to Cannes / Berlin.

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    M: The Original
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    Aug 5th, 2014
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    #1204241678

    Pugh’s Little Women nod is about Midsommar being a no-go for voters.

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    Melvinezq
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    Aug 7th, 2020
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    #1204241719

    How is DiCaprio still in your all prediction? When we have Fassbender, Isaac or Skarsgård with not just more serious role, but also more serious filmmaker, how can you still predict him? I’m speechless.

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204241721

    DiCaprio will miss like Gosling in The Big Short and DiCaprio has missed plenty of nominations in previous films.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204241744

    There’s a rumour around about “The Power of the Dog” and “The Card Counter” for the Venice Festival… has anyone heard it? I think these are two great choices but if they’re reserved for Venice it means they are most likely not going to Cannes / Berlin.

    The Power of the Dog is almost definitely going to Venice (and maybe simultaneously Telluride and Toronto) because Campion’s won at Cannes before not to mention it’s Netflix and they probably won’t want to do it out-of-competition.

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