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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 9)

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    Igor Alves
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    #1204253425

    Nobody’s trying to make it “happen”, we’re just predicting what might happen. It’s too early to rule out anything completely.

    please, a lot of people here just make some predictions based on wishful thinking and dismiss other things based on wishful thinking as well.

    Have you watched it ? Soho has an actress who was in a cultural phenomenon last year.

    I don’t have to, its genre requires that type of impact. just because she was in a cultural phenomenon once doesn’t mean her other projects are going to be as well, you might as well predict eternals then since kit harington was also in a cultural phenomenon, an even bigger one btw.

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    MysticMagix
    Joined:
    Feb 23rd, 2017
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    #1204253427

    Every year it gets harder and harder for me to figure out what an Oscar movie is. The best I can come up with is “something that makes an Academy member feel like a good person if they vote for it” or “something with a very expensive campaign.” I thought Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom was a sure thing and I thought Promising Young Woman and Sound of Metal were dead ends. Anyway, Bad Predictions Let’s Goooooooo0 Picture:

    • Blonde
    • Blue Bayou
    • Coda
    • The French Dispatch
    • House of Gucci
    • In the Heights
    • Next Goal Wins
    • The Power of the Dog
    • Soggy Bottom
    • The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Director:

    • Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom
    • Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
    • Justin Chon, Blue Bayou
    • Andrew Dominik, Blonde
    • Paul Verhoeven, Benedetta

    Actor:

    • Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
    • Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
    • Adam Driver, House of Gucci
    • Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… Boom!
    • Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Actress:

    • Ana de Armas, Blonde
    • Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
    • Jennifer Hudson, Respect
    • Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
    • Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

    Supporting Actor:

    • Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom
    • Al Pacino, House of Gucci
    • Richard Jenkins, Nightmare Alley
    • Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
    • Jimmy Smits, In the Heights

    Supporting Actress:

    • Glen Close, Swan Song
    • Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
    • Linh Dan Pham, Blue Bayou
    • Olga Merediz, In the Heights
    • Ruth Negga, Passing

    Adapted Screenplay:

    • Blonde
    • Coda
    • House of Gucci
    • Next Goal Wins
    • The Power of the Dog

    Original Screenplay:

    • Being the Ricardos
    • Blue Bayou
    • Don’t Look Up
    • The French Dispatch
    • Soggy Bottom

    Cinematography:

    • Blonde
    • Blue Bayou
    • Dune
    • The Power of the Dog
    • West Side Story

    Costume Design:

    • House of Gucci
    • Last Night in Soho
    • Nightmare Alley
    • Soggy Bottom
    • West Side Story

    Film Editing:

    • Blonde
    • House of Gucci
    • The Power of the Dog
    • Soggy Bottom
    • West Side Story

    Makeup/Hairstyling:

    • Cyrano
    • The French Dispatch
    • House of Gucci
    • Last Night in Soho
    • Nightmare Alley

    Original Score:

    • Don’t Look Up
    • The French Dispatch
    • Luca
    • Nightmare Alley
    • The Power of the Dog

    Original Song:

    • Encanto
    • No Time to Die
    • Something Added to a Broadway Musical Adaptation
    • Something From a Documentary
    • Something Written by Diane Warren

    Production Design:

    • Dune
    • The French Dispatch
    • House of Gucci
    • In the Heights
    • Nightmare Alley

    Sound:

    • Dune
    • In the Heights
    • Nightmare Alley
    • Respect
    • West Side Story

    Visual Effects:

    • Dune
    • Eternals
    • The Green Knight
    • The Suicide Squad
    • The Tomorrow War

    Animated Feature:

    • Encanto
    • Flee
    • Luca
    • The Mitchells vs. The Machines
    • Unknown GKids Movie

    Totals: 9- House of Gucci 8- The Power of the Dog 6- Blonde, Nightmare Alley, Soggy Bottom, West Side Story 5- Blue Bayou, The French Dispatch, In the Heights 4- Dune 3- The Tragedy of Macbeth 2- Benadetta*, CODA, Cyrano, Don’t Look Up, Encanto, Flee*, Last Night in Soho, Luca, Next Goal Wins, Respect 1- Being the Ricardos, Eternals, The Green Knight, The Mitchells vs. The Machines, Passing, The Suicide Squad, Swan Song, tick, tick…Boom!, The Tomorrow War *Likely nominees in categories I’m not predicting (International Feature for Benadetta, Documentary or International Feature for Flee)

     

    Mass??

    A little bit of Magic never hurt anybody.

    ~ MYSTIC

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    boogiezen
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    #1204253432

    I don’t have too, its genre requires that type of impact. just because she was in a cultural phenomenon once doesn’t mean her other projects are going to be as well, you might as well predict eternals then since kit harington was also in a cultural phenomenon, an even bigger one btw.

    Game of Thrones is an ensemble though.

    Anyway..I agree about Soho. I think Edgar Wright made this movie for popcorn worthy not for awards.

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    Igor Alves
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    #1204253438

    Game of Thrones is an ensemble though. Anyway..I agree about Soho. I think Edgar Wright made this movie for popcorn worthy not for awards.

    Yeah but Kit was definitely the male lead of the later seasons. Yep I agree, obviously not oscar friendly at all.

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    SN
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    #1204253480

    I’m not ruling out Last Night in Soho (tbf, ruling out anything this early in the year is stupid) but I also don’t get this overconfidence with this movie here. It’ll be an horror/thriller film by an auteur director, so the critical reception and the box office need to be that good.

    These “Anya Taylor-Joy is a breakout star who starred in a cultural phenomenon last year” arguments are not convincing to me. By that logic we should predict Eternals because Chloe Zhao just won Best Picture.

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    Gabarnes43
    Joined:
    Jan 6th, 2018
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    #1204253486

    Have there been any reviews for The Woman in the Window, it’s released tomorrow on Netflix

    EMMY FYC

    The Crown in all categories

    Mare of Easttown, Kate Winslet & Julianne Nicholson

    IMDY!

    Ted Lasso and The Flight Attendant in all categories.

    Elisabeth Moss & OT Fagbenle

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    mitchellfleming21
    Joined:
    Jan 23rd, 2017
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    #1204253508

    The sound mixer for the DOR film says the original script was 270 pages.

    Interview (you will need to run through Google Translate)

    Oh God, why is he doing this to us? American Hustle was only like 150 pages and that was a slog to sit through, I am not looking forward to 3+ hours of his self-indulgence. Surely a lot of it has been trimmed right??

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    vinichelsea
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    #1204253523

    To anyone who’s wondering, here is a list of the last 5 Oscars considering the Distribution companies (in the US):

    OSCARS 2021:

      Nomadland – Searchlight

    The Father – Sony
    Judas and The Black Messiah – Warner
    Mank – Netflix
    Minari – A24
    Promising Young Woman – Focus
    Sound of Metal – Amazon
    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Netflix

    OSCARS 2020:

      Parasite – Neon

    Ford v. Ferrari – 20th Century Fox
    The Irishman – Netflix
    Jojo Rabbit – Searchlight
    Joker – Warner
    Little Women – Sony
    Marriage Story – Netflix
    1917 – Universal
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Sony

    OSCARS 2019:

      Green Book – Universal

    Black Panther – Disney
    BlacKkKlansman – Focus
    Bohemian Rhapsody – 20th Century Fox
    The Favourite – Searchlight
    Roma – Netflix
    A Star is Born – Warner
    Vice – Annapurna

    OSCARS 2018:

      The Shape of Water – Searchlight

    Call Me By Your Name – Sony
    Darkest Hour – Focus
    Dunkirk – Warner
    Get Out – Universal
    Lady Bird – A24
    Phantom Thread – Focus
    The Post – 20th Century Fox
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Searchlight

    OSCARS 2017:

      Moonlight – A24

    Arrival – Paramount
    Fences – Paramount
    Hacksaw Ridge – Lionsgate
    Hell or High Water – Lionsgate
    Hidden Figures – 20th Century Fox
    La La Land – Lionsgate
    Lion – The Weinstein Company (LOL)
    Manchester By the Sea – Amazon

    TALLY:
    2 wins, 3 nominations – Searchlight
    5 nominations – Netflix
    4 nominations – 20th Century Fox
    4 nominations – Focus
    4 nominations – Sony
    4 nominations – Warner
    1 win, 2 nominations – Universal
    1 win, 2 nominations – A24
    3 nominations – Lionsgate
    2 nominations – Paramount
    2 nominations – Amazon
    1 win – Neon
    1 nomination – Disney
    1 nomination – Annapurna

    If you give make the ranking from the most recent (5 points) to the oldest (1 point), it gets like this:

    [21] Netflix
    [16] Searchlight
    [15] Sony
    [14] Warner
    [12] Focus
    [10] 20th Century Fox
    [09] Universal
    [08] A24
    [06] Amazon
    [04] Neon
    [03] Lionsgate
    [03] Disney
    [03] Annapurna
    [02] Paramount

    I also made a list of those companies above with their tiles for this awards cycle:

    NETFLIX:
    April, 23 – The Mitchells vs. the Machines
    TBA – Blonde
    TBA – Bruised
    TBA – Don’t Look Up
    TBA – Passing
    TBA – Pinocchio
    TBA – The Hand of God
    TBA – The Harder They Fall
    TBA – The Power of the Dog
    TBA – The Starling
    TBA – Tick, Tick… Boom!
    TBA – Vivo
    TBA – Wendell and Wild

    SEARCHLIGHT:
    July, 2 – Summer of Soul
    September, 24 – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
    December, 3 – Nightmare Alley
    TBA – The French Dispatch
    TBA – Next Goal Wins

    SONY:
    July, 30 – Nine Days
    TBA – Jockey
    TBA – A Journal for Jordan
    TBA – Julia
    TBA – Mothering Sunday
    TBA – A Mouthful of Air

    WARNER:
    May, 21 – Those Who Wish Me Dead
    June, 11 – In the Heights
    September, 24 – The Many Saints of Newark
    October, 1 – Dune
    October, 22 – Cry Macho
    November, 19 – King Richard

    FOCUS:
    June, 18 – The Sparks Brothers
    June, 25 – Blue Bayou
    July, 30 – Stillwater
    September, 10 – The Card Counter
    October, 22 – Last Night in Soho
    November, 12 – Belfast
    TBA – The Forgiven
    TBA – The Northman

    20th CENTURY FOX:
    August, 13 – Free Guy
    October, 15 – The Last Duel
    TBA – Canterbury Glass
    TBA – Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

    UNIVERSAL:
    June, 24 – Spirit Untamed
    September, 24 – Dear Evan Hansen
    TBA – Finch
    TBA – Wicked

    A24:
    June, 30 – Zola
    July, 30 – The Green Knight
    TBA – After Yang
    TBA – C’mon, C’mon
    TBA – The Humans
    TBA – Red, White and Water
    TBA – The Tragedy of Macbeth
    TBA – The Whale

    AMAZON:
    July, 2 – The Tomorrow War
    TBA – Annette
    TBA – Cinderella
    TBA – The Electrical Life of Louis Wain

    NEON:
    July, 16 – Ailey
    TBA – Flee
    TBA – Memoria
    TBA – Pig
    TBA – Spencer

    LIONSGATE:
    December, 10 – American Underdog
    TBA – Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

    DISNEY:
    May, 28 – Cruella
    June, 18 – Luca
    July, 30 – Jungle Cruise
    November, 24 – Encanto

    ANNAPURNA:
    TBA – On the Count of Three

    PARAMOUNT:
    November, 19 – Top Gun: Maverick

    There are some companies that have yet to be nominated (Apple +, Bleecker Street) and others that haven’t been nominated in a long time (Paris Films, MGM, United Artists), but if you want to be safe with predecessors, this is a guide.

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    vinichelsea
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    #1204253545

    BTW, “The Whale” is already in Post-Production. Darren made it in his basement, apparently.

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    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204253554

    I’m sorry but ruling out a film almost entirely (in May) before we even see a single trailer or clip is pretentious af. I understand being sceptical (I am sceptical about The Northman above the line and Annette outside Cotillard) but this whole “it’s of a different genre” argument is ridiculous when we don’t even know a single thing about the film’s mechanisms. This applies to all films in contention here not just only Last Night in Soho.

    People argued this year (even after it did so well in nominations at precursors) that Promising Young Woman had no chance at breaking into the Oscars outside Carey Mulligan purely because it was “an edgier film”. People stated it was implausible for Parasite to win the top prize even until the moment the envelope was opened because it was an edgy foreign film. People ruled out The Favourite because of its director.

    I understand people being sceptical but to rule any film out as if people have some sort of weird pipe dream (when 90% of these films haven’t even released a trailer yet) is just ludicrous lol.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    wolfali
    Joined:
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    #1204253561

    August, 13 – Free Guy October, 15 – The Last Duel

    Jodie Comer is coming.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    fefface
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    Jan 14th, 2020
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    #1204253568

    The trailer for The Sparks Brothers is out and it looks like a true, proper love letter from one creative to others who inspired him.

    https://twitter.com/edgarwright/status/1392857238201675780

    It’s not an Oscar-y documentary but could give Annette a little boost if its well received and does well (it comes out a couple weeks before Cannes). Already a lot of people in the replies planning to check it out who aren’t familiar with the band, and there is a BTS clip from Annette in the film.

     

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    fefface
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    #1204253616

    Sept 10 for The Card Counter.

    Not a great release date but surely makes it more likely that this is going to Cannes and not Venice.

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    fefface
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    LA26
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    Apr 3rd, 2021
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