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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 9)

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    fefface
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    #1204253745

    Is that good or too early?

    It’s early but I do think it’s strategic. To reiterate what I’ve said before (I reckoned it would be August and not July) I do think it’s strategic, and here’s why.

    It’s not unheard of for movies released in summer to break through in awards season (most recently Blackkklansman, released in August, and OUATIH, released in July) and while I’m not saying this is in any way comparable to those movies, the precedent does exist.

    What Amazon have done IMO by releasing it in August is given it a chance to stand out on its own. If they release this in Oct/Nov when all the big conventional awards stuff comes out it will vanish without trace. The schedule is outrageous and even some of the big movies could struggle for box office. Putting it out in August ,when the schedule is less busy, gives it space to breathe and for potentially more people to see it.

    Either that or it’s terrible and they’re dumping it, but I don’t get that vibe. They held on to the distribution rights all this time – they picked it up two years before it was even made – so they must have some degree of confidence.

    See also: CODA.

     

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    Croman
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    Sep 27th, 2020
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    #1204253747

    Supporting Actress:

    • Glen Close, Swan Song
    • Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
    • Linh Dan Pham, Blue Bayou
    • Olga Merediz, In the Heights
    • Ruth Negga, Passing

    I think Olga Merediz is just a thing of the moment. Her hype will fade once fall festivals kick off. I have no faith in any actor from any musical getting in.

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    wolfali
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    #1204253766

    That release date for The Card Counter isn’t great but I do agree with fefface that it probably suggests the film is going to Cannes.

    The Card Counter in September, Last Night in Soho in October, Belfast in November and I guess The Northman will be going to Christmas?

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    gorman
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    Dec 24th, 2017
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    #1204253891

    I don’t see The Card Counter getting into the awards discussion to be honest. Was sceptical before the release date, more sure of that now. Schrader is inconsistent of late and even when he’s great he’s divisive. I’m expecting this to be good, but I think critic awards will probably be its limit. Maybe another lone screenplay nod for him if there’s passion. Focus clearly has its priorities on Soho, Belfast and The Northman for now.

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    vinichelsea
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    #1204253904

    MAY PREDICTIONS

    Best Picture (Produced by / Distributed in the U.S. by):
    01 – NIGHTMARE ALLEY (Searchlight / Searchlight)
    02 – THE LAST DUEL (20th Century Studios / 20th Century Studios)
    03 – THE POWER OF THE DOG (BBC Films / Netflix)
    04 – THE FRENCH DISPATCH (Indian Paintbrush / Searchlight)
    05 – THE NORTHMAN (New Regency / Focus)
    06 – PASSING (Film4 / Netflix)
    07 – A JOURNAL FOR JORDAN (BRON, Sony / Sony)
    08 – THE ELECTRIC LIFE OF LOUIS WAIN (Film4, Amazon / Amazon)
    09 – IN THE HEIGHTS (Warner Bros. / Warner Bros.)
    10 – THE WHALE (A24 / A24)

    Best Leading Actor:
    01 – Adam Driver – THE LAST DUEL
    02 – Benedict Cumberbatch – THE ELECTRIC LIFE OF LOUIS WAIN
    03 – Michael B. Jordan – A JOURNAL FOR JORDAN
    04 – Brendan Fraser – THE WHALE
    05 – Clifton Collins Jr. – JOCKEY

    Best Leading Actress:
    01 – Kirsten Dunst – THE POWER OF THE DOG
    02 – Tessa Thompson – PASSING
    03 – Amanda Seyfried – A MOUTHFUL OF AIR
    04 – Cate Blanchett – NIGHTMARE ALLEY
    05 – Chanté Adams – A JOURNAL FOR JORDAN

    Best Supporting Actor:
    01 – Jesse Plemons – THE POWER OF THE DOG
    02 – Richard Jenkins – NIGHTMARE ALLEY
    03 – Kodi Smit-McPhee – THE POWER OF THE DOG
    04 – Willem Dafoe – THE NORTHMAN
    05 – Brian Tyree Henry – RED, WHITE AND WATER

    Best Supporting Actress:
    01 – Jodie Comer – THE LAST DUEL
    02 – Ruth Negga – PASSING
    03 – Marlee Matlin – CODA
    04 – Ann Dowd – MASS
    05 – Ariana DeBose – WEST SIDE STORY

    Best Director:
    01 – Guillermo Del Toro – NIGHTMARE ALLEY
    02 – Ridley Scott – THE LAST DUEL
    03 – Jane Campion – THE POWER OF THE DOG
    04 – Wes Anderson – THE FRENCH DISPATCH
    05 – Rebecca Hall – PASSING

    Best Original Screenplay:
    01 – Wes Anderson – THE FRENCH DISPATCH
    02 – Robert Eggers & Sjón – THE NORTHMAN
    03 – Will Sharpe & Simon Stephenson – THE ELECTRIC LIFE OF LOUIS WAIN
    04 – Justin Chon – BLUE BAYOU
    05 – Sian Heder – CODA

    Best Adapted Screenplay:
    01 – Ben Affleck, Matt Damon & Nicole Holofcener – THE LAST DUEL
    02 – Jane Campion – THE POWER OF THE DOG
    03 – Guillermo Del Toro & Kim Morgan – NIGHTMARE ALLEY
    04 – Samuel D. Hunter – THE WHALE
    05 – Virgil Williams – A JOURNAL FOR JORDAN

    Best Film Editing:
    01 – Claire Simpson – THE LAST DUEL
    02 – Cam McLauchlin – NIGHTMARE ALLEY
    03 – Louise Ford – THE NORTHMAN
    04 – Myron Kerstein – IN THE HEIGHTS
    05 – Paul Machliss – LAST NIGHT IN SOHO

    Best Cinematography:
    01 – Dan Lausten – NIGHTMARE ALLEY
    02 – Dariusz Wolski – THE LAST DUEL
    03 – Jarin Blaschke – THE NORTHMAN
    04 – Ari Wegner – THE POWER OF THE DOG
    05 – John Seale – THREE THOUSAND YEARS OF LONGING

    Best Production Design:
    01 – Adam Stockhausen & Rena DeAngelo – THE FRENCH DISPATCH
    02 – Tamara Deverell & Shane Vieau – NIGHTMARE ALLEY
    03 – Arthur Max & Judy Farr – THE LAST DUEL
    04 – Adam Stockhausen & Rena DeAngelo – WEST SIDE STORY
    05 – Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer – CYRANO

    Best Costume Design:
    01 – Luis Sequeira – NIGHTMARE ALLEY
    02 – Milena Canonero – THE FRENCH DISPATCH
    03 – Marci Rodgers – PASSING
    04 – Michael O’Connor – THE ELECTRIC LIFE OF LOUIS WAIN
    05 – Janty Yates – HOUSE OF GUCCI

    Best Make Up and Hairstyling:
    01 – THE FRENCH DISPATCH
    02 – HOUSE OF GUCCI
    03 – DUNE
    04 – LAST NIGHT IN SOHO
    05 – GHOSTBUSTERS: AFTERLIFE

    Best Sound:
    01 – THE NORTHMAN
    02 – A JOURNAL FOR JORDAN
    03 – IN THE HEIGHTS
    04 – LAST NIGHT IN SOHO
    05 – TOP GUN: MAVERICK

    Best Original Score:
    01 – Jonny Greenwood – THE POWER OF THE DOG
    02 – Dan Romer – LUCA
    03 – Alexander Desplat – NIGHTMARE ALLEY
    04 – Hans Zimmer – DUNE
    05 – Aaron Dessner & Bryce Dessner – JOCKEY

    Best Visual Effects:
    01 – ETERNALS
    02 – THREE THOUSAND YEARS OF LONGING
    03 – THE TOMORROW WAR
    04 – JUNGLE CRUISE
    05 – DUNE

    Best Documentary:
    01 – SUMMER OF SOUL
    02 – THE FIRST WAVE
    03 – FLEE
    04 – A COP MOVIE
    05 – SABAYA

    Best Animation:
    01 – LUCA
    02 – ENCANTO
    03 – THE MITCHELLS VS. THE MACHINES
    04 – HOW DO YOU LIVE?
    05 – FLEE

    Best International Film:
    01 – A HERO (Iran)
    02 – TRIANGLE OF SADNESS (Sweden)
    03 – AHED’S KNEE (Israel)
    04 – DECISION TO LEAVE (South Korea)
    05 – HIVE (Kosovo)

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    Caelin Cripps
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    Apr 28th, 2016
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    #1204253930

    I think Olga Merediz is just a thing of the moment. Her hype will fade once fall festivals kick off. I have no faith in any actor from any musical getting in.

    I have a faith she’s happening. How could one watch her perform “Paciencia y Fe” and NOT vote for her to get a nomination??

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    gorman
    Joined:
    Dec 24th, 2017
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    #1204253972

    Winner predictions

    Picture – The Power of the Dog

    Director – Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch

    Actress – Ana De Armas, Blonde

    Actor – Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Supp. Actress – Ruth Negga, Passing

    Supp. Actor – Willem Dafoe, The Northman

    Original Screenplay – Soggy Bottom

    Adapted Screenplay – The Power of the Dog

    Cinematography – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Editing – The French Dispatch

    Production Design – The French Dispatch

    Costume Design – House of Gucci

    Make-up and Hairstyling – House of Gucci

    Sound – Dune

    Score – The Power of the Dog

    Original Song – No Time To Die

    Documentary – Summer of Soul

    International Film – A Hero

    Animated Film – Luca

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