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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 14)

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    boogiezen
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    #1204315552

    ^Last night in Soho getting 90+% from RT and 86+% from Metacritic is a long shot.

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    Butz
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    #1204315576

    Probably old news for people living in America but A Quiet Place 2 will get nothing. It’s good (but not as good the first one) however they really dialed back on Emily Blunt who was their only real shot at an above-the-line nomination and the sound work while still fantastic doesn’t feel as fresh and original as it did in 2018. Especially now with the potential spots in Sound being halved, I don’t see it being an Oscar-nominated movie.

    FYC - Oscars 2022:
    NINE DAYS in all categories, including:
    - Best Picture
    - Best Director
    - Best Original Screenplay
    - Best Actor (Winston Duke)
    - Best Supporting Actress (Zazie Beetz)
    - Best Supporting Actor (Benedict Wong)

    Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges

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    sarahvsmovies
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    #1204315590

    @SirPierce Sorry to have missed directly responding to you in the previous thread, but to respond to your questions about my comments on the Card Counter screenplay:

    Actor potential:

    It reads like a one-man show, honestly. Dafoe’s character has a very brief screentime of just a couple of scenes. Critical, but brief. Haddish and Sheridan’s have decent time, but but everyone else’s material — while not thinly written — really services the lead. As I mentioned, the film is essentially a character study. The only acting contender I see is Isaac, but I think he’s going to make a lot of noise if the screenplay translated to screen well. The whole thing relies on his performance.

    Political Commentary:

    I don’t want to accidentally spoil by answering this too much. But when I mentioned the touchy political aspect, it’s because the film deals heavily and very explicitly with CIA torture black sites and specifically with Abu Ghraib. I can’t see the same Academy that happily nominated, you know, Zero Dark Thirty, American Sniper, etc. being thrilled with it, lol.

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    ReddWhite
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    #1204315592

    Poor Anya Taylor-Joy and Thomasin McKenzie in that case lol.

    The problem with Parasite when it came to acting nods aside from racism lol was that it was very divided when it came to a favorite performance. Supporting actress had like 4 possible contenders, all of which had their fans, and while there was a clear push for Song Kang-ho to be nominated, he might very well have split votes with Choi Woo-shik (the closest the film had to a lead) and Lee Sun-kyun (who was also very acclaimed).

    If LNIS’ award team focuses solely on McKenzie and ATJ (preferably in separate categories), they stand a real chance for a nod (maybe even a win in ATJ’s case).

    Emmys FYC: Jean Smart.

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    LA26
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    #1204315602

    Have members of the French press already seen some of the films headed to Cannes like Annette and Benedetta?

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    Jajajajjaja
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    #1204315604

    Have members of the French press already seen some of the films headed to Cannes like Annette and Benedetta?

    I can’t really trusts LadyJaneGrey, but that guy posts link to a tweet in Cannes thread that Annette lacks emotion (according to the tweet)

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    ReddWhite
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    #1204315610

    Have members of the French press already seen some of the films headed to Cannes like Annette and Benedetta?

    I saw on Twitter some reactions to these, apparently they really liked Benedetta and were mixed on Annette (positive on direction and feeling it lacked emotion).

    It’s Twitter though, take it with a grain of salt

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeAddison87/status/1407652327083945991

    (credits to Lady Jane Grey who posted it on the Cannes thread)

    Emmys FYC: Jean Smart.

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    alittle03
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    #1204315621

    well ariana debose is not joaquin phoenix or jeff bridges the possibility of her winning the Oscar is appalling

    I could agree that she’ll most unavoidably be compared to Rita Moreno’s iconic Oscar-winning portrayal of the same character and that could possibly be a hurdle of some sort, but I just don’t know how you could say such a thing both sight unseen and this early in the awards season. I’m perplexed. Perhaps we actually should see the film first? Or at least wait for any reviews? She might be really good. For a nomination, at least.

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    Crackleking
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    #1204315633

    I’m trying to figure out what could realistically win Best Picture. Cause while Soggy Bottom and Nightmare Alley are the films I’m most convinced will be Oscar films, I don’t think either one will actually win. Dune winning would be cool, but I can’t see that happening either. Looking at the field, I’m honestly inclined to say Don’t Look Up. I’m just not sure about it yet, I feel like I’d need to see it first, but I have a feeling it might happen

    I’ve been having the same problem too. Out of all of our known contenders Nightmare Alley and A Hero seem like the best bets, given Del Toro’s track record and Farhadi’s ability to make searing human dramas with importance. Other films like Soggy Bottom and Don’t Look Up while likely great films may just be too devisive to win on a preferential ballot even though I would say the latter has a great shot at winning screenplay.

    There could also be some late breaking festival film that could do it or something that is slipping under our radar such as Blue Bayou.

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    sarahvsmovies
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    #1204315637

    Here’s what I’ve been thinking on Annette: You have two actors without extensive vocal training who you are asking to do a movie that is 90+% singing and all live on set (according to a profile the New Yorker, I think, did on Driver back in 2019). That is a huge ask for anyone, let alone people without even notable vocal credentials. Emotion and engagement suffering for technicality due to that would not be a shocker to me, at all, if the early word pans out.

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    fefface
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    #1204315647

    Here’s what I’ve been thinking on Annette: You have two actors without extensive vocal training who you are asking to do a movie that is 90+% singing and all live on set (according to a profile the New Yorker, I think, did on Driver back in 2019). That is a huge ask for anyone, let alone people without even notable vocal credentials. Emotion and engagement suffering for technicality due to that would not be a shocker to me, at all, if the early word pans out.

    The ‘early word’ comes from a Twitter account that hasn’t even seen the film, they said they just read someone else said it in a magazine. And we don’t know that neither actor has done vocal training, unless you read that somewhere – Driver at least has been singing in some capacity since he was a child and did a bunch of musicals at Juilliard, Cotillard has done musicals before.

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    Viridiana
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    #1204315649

    Almodovar’s Parallel mothers is coming this year. It will be released on September 10th in Spain.

    It could definitely go to Venice/Toronto

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    Jajajajjaja
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    #1204315653

    If McDormand, Dunst and Blanchett goes lead and Soho is strong enough to earn acting noms, i can see The Academy would do Stanfield to McKenzie despite Focus campaigning her for lead

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    schmids
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    #1204315657

    The ‘early word’ comes from a Twitter account that hasn’t even seen the film, they said they just read someone else said it in a magazine. And we don’t know that neither actor has done vocal training, unless you read that somewhere – Driver at least has been singing in some capacity since he was a child and did a bunch of musicals at Juilliard, Cotillard has done musicals before.

    Yeah I’m not sure where the idea that either of them are untrained comes from. Given that he has mentioned singing ‘Happy Birthday’ at his audition Driver almost certainly did some training at Juilliard, and Cotillard has already done a movie musical.

    Also I’m pretty sure they will have recorded all the tracks in a studio to use if they need to, especially for scenes like the storm where there will be a lot of background noise. Plus Sparks have said it’s not a traditional musical in any sense, which I am assuming includes the style in which it is sung (the song we have heard so far is seemingly not ‘in’ the film).

    As to whether it lacks emotion that remains to be seen, but as fefface said that Tweet isn’t a first-hand response. The only actual response to it we’ve seen so far is Edgar Wright’s, and he loved it. And Lady Jane Grey seems to hate everything, so…

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    RIDLEY SCOTT
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    #1204315662

    I have The Last Duel winning because of the social commentary aspect of the film and his previous epic Gladiator won Best Picture. I also have Comer as the frontrunner for whatever category she is being placed in. It’s also written by Ben Affleck and Matt Damon who both won for Good Will Hunting so it’s like their screenplay comeback. Second place I have The Power of the Dog which I think also has social commentary (The user who is really on board with the film should confirm this or not) and Jane Campion at its helm. And yes we don’t need to hear your thinkpieces about how she is inconsistent; she could very well strike gold with The Power of the Dog like she did with The Piano. Third I have Nightmare Alley winning which I highly doubt but nobody knows what the early frontrunner for Best Picture is. In any case I don’t think any film will be sweeping the Best Picture precursors like Nomadland last year. We will most likely be seeing a Three Billboards vs Shape of Water award season.

    I agree. In theory, THE LAST DUEL is the safer choice. However, I hear the screenplay of HOUSE OF GUCCI is even better but crazier and more extreme. I suppose HOUSE OF GUCCI could be a Masterpiece or a misfire. The Wolf of Wall Street style. Ridley Scott never made that style

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