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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 7)

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    Chris Beachum
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    #1204211199

    Part 7 is now open.

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    wolfali
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    #1204211254

    Best Picture

    1. The French Dispatch (Searchlight Pictures)
    2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
    3. House of Gucci (MGM)
    4. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
    5. Last Night in Soho (Focus Features)
    6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24)
    7. Annette (Amazon)
    8. The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (Amazon)
    9. Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros.)
    10. In the Heights (Warner Bros.)

    Best Director

    1. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
    2. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
    3. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
    4. Edgar Wright, Last Night in Soho
    5. Leos Carax, Annette

    6. Olivia Wilde, Don’t Worry Darling
    7. Will Sharpe, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain
    8. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci
    9. Jon M. Chu, In the Heights
    10. Joel Cohen, The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Best Actor

    1. Adam Driver, House of Gucci
    2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
    3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
    4. Antony Ramos, In the Heights
    5. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley

    6. Josh O’Connor, Mothering Sunday
    7. Ben Platt, Dear Evan Hansen
    8. Jonathan Majors, The Harder They Fall
    9. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
    10. Oscar Isaac, The Card Counter

    Best Actress

    1. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
    2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
    3. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
    4. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
    5. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel

    6. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling
    7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect
    8. Tessa Thompson, Passing
    9. Thomasin McKenzie, Last Night in Soho
    10. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

    Best Supporting Actor

    1. Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley
    2. Al Pacino, House of Gucci
    3. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
    4. Richard Jenkins, Nightmare Alley
    5. Idris Elba, The Harder They Fall

    6. Delroy Lindo, The Harder They Fall
    7. Richard E. Grant, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie
    8. Jared Leto, House of Gucci
    9. Brendan Gleeson, The Tragedy of Macbeth
    10. Rami Malek, No Time to Die

    Best Supporting Actress

    1. Claire Foy, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain
    2. Regina King, The Harder They Fall
    3. Diana Rigg, Last Night in Soho
    4. Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho
    5. Glenda Jackson, Mothering Sunday

    6. Marion Cotillard, Annette
    7. Ruth Negga, Passing
    8. Olga Merediz, In the Heights
    9. Toni Colette, Nightmare Alley
    10. Salma Hayek, House of Gucci

    Best Original Screenplay

    1. The French Dispatch
    2. Last Night in Soho
    3. Annette
    4. The Electrical Life of Louis Wain
    5. Don’t Worry Darling

    6. The Harder They Fall
    7. The Card Counter
    8. Respect
    9. Don’t Look Up
    10. Mass

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    1. The Power of the Dog
    2. Nightmare Alley
    3. The Tragedy of Macbeth
    4. The Last Duel
    5. Passing

    6. House of Gucci
    7. In the Heights
    8. Mothering Sunday
    9. Dear Evan Hansen
    10. The Lost Daughter

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    kingfan011
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    #1204211260

    So now that its confirmed that Soggy Bottom will be getting released this year at least in the US can’t wait for more info such as a confirmed full cast list or a  still or  an actor talking about the film.

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    SoniNon
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    #1204211264

    According to imdb Thomas Newman is scoring The Northman which is an unexpected choice.

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    LA26
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    #1204211272

    Best Actress 1. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth 2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog 3. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci 4. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley 5. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel  

    You changed Comer from supporting to lead? Do the actors have a final say about which categories to submit themselves in or the Academy?

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    LA26
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    #1204211285

    Scott Rudin has been removed from 5 A24 projects: https://deadline.com/2021/04/scott-rudin-removed-five-a24-film-projects-sources-1234740301/

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    wolfali
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    #1204211293

    I think we’re going to see a similar thing to what we saw at the Emmys in Drama last year when it was competitive after a more open field and we’ll see lots of films get lots of nominations but only one or two of them are really competitive for the top prize.

    I have a feeling that these two films could be The French Dispatch and The Power of the Dog. I wonder if one of them might pull a Nomadland and win almost everything (even with critics) in the run up to the Oscars. I anticipate that whilst there will be a few critics picks this year (the aforementioned two, Soho and Annette, Passing etc) that they’ll be more influential at the Oscars than they were this year. To cut a long story short don’t be surprised to see some very artsy or indie choices break into the conversation next year!

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    JV
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    #1204211308

    According to imdb Thomas Newman is scoring The Northman which is an unexpected choice.

    Thank god. He will win this year and Film Twitter will finally leave my girl Hildur alone. She created the score out of the screenplay. She deserved it.

     

    And I think Mass is a contender for the lone screenplay stat. This season I thought this stat would be broken and then The White Tiger happened.

    Mass is heavily focused on dialogue and character’s emotions, a bit raw and intoxicating (from what I’ve read in the reviews) and deals with a social revelant subjects, like other movies that were nominated in this stat, like First ReformedNightcrawler and The Lobster.

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    wolfali
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    #1204211324

    You changed Comer from supporting to lead? Do the actors have a final say about which categories to submit themselves in or the Academy?

    Obviously actors could very well vote for her in supporting (like they did with LaKeith Stanfield this year) but I’m putting her in lead for now because I feel like if the story is solely focused around her character and the film is said to “believe” her version of events then it would look bad for her to be campaigned in supporting.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    schmids
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    #1204211344

    You changed Comer from supporting to lead? Do the actors have a final say about which categories to submit themselves in or the Academy?

    They may discuss it with the studio, but even the studio doesn’t get the final say – the voters do. Case in point: Lakeith Stanfield. Campaigning exists purely to guide the voters.

    I’ve said this before but I absolutely cannot see a scenario where given the subject matter of The Last Duel that Jodie Comer goes Supporting, better chance of winning or no.

    And I think Mass is a contender for the lone screenplay stat. This season I thought this stat would be broken and then The White Tiger happened.

    Pretty sure Mass doesn’t currently have a distributor.

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    schmids
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    #1204211373

    Soggy Bottom is now coming out on 22 Dec. Very, very late. And tricky considering we’re likely to be tired of awards fare by that point.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TheFilmStage/status/1384562035392974850

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    JV
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    #1204211391

    Soggy Bottom is now coming out on 22 Dec. Very, very late. And tricky considering we’re likely to be tired of awards fare by that point. https://mobile.twitter.com/TheFilmStage/status/1384562035392974850

    That’s actually a better date than September. It could be our late breaker.

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    wolfali
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    #1204211403

    Soggy Bottom is now coming out on 22 Dec. Very, very late. And tricky considering we’re likely to be tired of awards fare by that point. https://mobile.twitter.com/TheFilmStage/status/1384562035392974850

    Yikes!

    It doesn’t help that it will likely get overshadowed in buzz by all the big blockbusters that will be coming out around Christmas as well.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    schmids
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    #1204211414

    Yikes! It doesn’t help that it will likely get overshadowed in buzz by all the big blockbusters that will be coming out around Christmas as well.

    Apparently limited release is Nov 26 which is better, but it’ll be going up against House of Gucci.

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    wolfali
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    #1204211418

    That’s actually a better date than September. It could be our late breaker.

    The problem is next season is going to be shorter than this year’s and probably even shorter than last year’s. I think November releases will find it easier in being the “late breakers” of his year not December ones.

    Also a December release isn’t great on a confidence scale. It might signify that the film isn’t going to be very well received (a bit like Bombshell).

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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