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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 7)

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    SN
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    #1204215473

    The No Time to Die song is pretty meh tbh, but so was Writings on the Wall so I think Billie Eilish is probably happening lmao

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    schmids
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    #1204215485

    The No Time to Die song is pretty meh tbh, but so was Writings on the Wall so I think Billie Eilish is probably happening lmao

    Writing’s on the Wall wasn’t released in a year with tons of musicals.

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    mitchellfleming21
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    #1204215497

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TheFilmUpdates/status/1385201345733423107

    Adam McKay said Don’t Look Up will released in November or December.

    I’m afraid Netflix will prioritize this instead of The Power of the Dog.

    I have a feeling it will be an Irishman/Marriage Story situation. Both are well received and get plenty of nods, but the smaller drama that Netflix isn’t prioritising as much will be the only one that wins something (saying that, whereas I love both The Irishman and Marriage Story, I’m expecting DLU to be more of a Chicago 7 quality and POTD to be one of the year’s best.)

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    Stank83
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    #1204215552

    Exactly

    Don’t Look Up=The Irishman

    The Power of the Dog=Marriage Story

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    wolfali
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    #1204215556

    I don’t know. Don’t Look Up feels more like a commercial grab than an Oscar player like The Irishman.

    I think it happens in Picture, Actor and Original Screenplay. Maybe Supporting Actress for Streep. But that’s it above the line imo. The “most expensive” and “flashiest” films aren’t necessarily what you need to be a top contender anymore.

    Writing’s on the Wall wasn’t released in a year with tons of musicals.

    The only musicals that have won Best Song in the past decade that weren’t big Oscar players were Rocketman and The Muppets. So if the musicals don’t manage to crack Best Picture (which is possible although I do think In the Heights has a chance at being a top contender) then Eilish is in a good position.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    schmids
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    #1204215579

    The only musicals that have won Best Song in the past decade that weren’t big Oscar players were Rocketman and The Muppets. So if the musicals don’t manage to crack Best Picture (which is possible although I do think In the Heights has a chance at being a top contender) then Eilish is in a good position.

    That’s true – but how many years have six musicals released, at least three of which we know have original songs?

    Apparently the script for Don’t Look Up was extensively reworked. Makes sense given the state of the leaked version.

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    wolfali
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    #1204215588

    Well I’m not sure if I can answer your question directly and fully on that matter but Dreamgirls had three songs nominated that split with each other to paved the way for a documentary film to become the first documentary winner in this category. Enchanted had three songs nominated lost to an Irish indie musical with a more romantic tone of music. Just this year we have three political inspiration songs up against each other that could plausibly split and pave the way for a song from a musical about Eurovision or a song penned by Diane Warren to win.

    If all of the musicals end up being hits (which is an if because look at The Prom) and some of them break into the race then arguably the fact that there are so many of them trying to reach to the same crowd could likely result in them cannibalising each others votes and Eilish benefitting from a vote split.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Sir Pierce
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    #1204215590

    Worth mentioning Netflix released The Trial of the Chicago 7 in September and Hillbilly Elegy in November last year. The reasons for Don’t Look Up releasing in November could just be commercial.

    …eh… You have a point with Hillbilly, but you have to look at Netflix’s previous top priorities I feel.

    The Irishman was released in the same time-frame, as was Mank. Both of which I’m fairly sure were Netflix’s big bets. Marriage Story was from a director, who while well-regarded, had never really had a hit with the Academy. It, also, had a much lower budget than The Irishman. Meanwhile, Trial of the Chicago 7 was a Netflix purchase from Fox, I believe, so, if the pandemic hadn’t happened, Mank would be their only push.

    A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

    Twitter: https://twitter.com/pierce_sir
    Letterboxd: https://letterboxd.com/11higuys/

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    marty
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    #1204215596

    My question is what will be the Trial of the Chicago 7 of this year, Parasite of last year, Spotlight of 2015, or Moonlight of 2016. A movie that touches on various important social issues, has director/writer/acting pedigree and will be accessible/entertaining to wide audiences.

    What a random and arbitrary comparison. The only thing those movies have in common is that they won Best Picture, and that still applies to only 3 of them because Trial is not winning anything. I really don’t know how you can say they had Director/Writing/Acting pedigree when Parasite actors were snubbed, Trial’s Director was snubbed, it’s losing Screenplay and only 1 actor got nominated, Moonlight was a cast of unknowns with a new Director/Writer. Nor how you can say Spotlight and Moonlight were accessible, entertaining crowdpleasers. Also if you’re including Trial in this set of movies, why are you ignoring Green Book? Which was the “crowdpleasing” alt that prevailed over Roma?

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    Sir Pierce
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    #1204215604

    Is it delusional to think that unless it flops in critical reception that The French Dispatch is the early frontrunner? I feel like it will be the perfect compromise for those seeking escapism after the year we’ve just had and those who are seeking a social factor in the stories told on screen. Plus none of the other contenders feel like they could be winners if we look at their premises. Apart from maybe The Power of the Dog but I only say that because the premise is quite ambiguous for that one. Last Night in Soho and Don’t Worry Darling are psychological thrillers, Annette could be too weird, Adam McKay’s movies aren’t accessible enough to win Best Picture and remakes and biopics rarely (if even ever) win.

    Nah, that’s not delusional.

    It’s one of the few from a director that has recently had a huge Academy hit and is very well-regarded in the industry. (And, to be honest, directors are the most important things to look at with these imo)… Also, with David O. Russell, whilst I don’t think he will be affected as badly as some are speculating, I don’t think the Academy would want the backlash of him getting a Best Director nod or having his film Best Picture, so it kind of rules him out.

    The only other contenders are Nightmare Alley, Soggy Bottom and Don’t Look Up. (Certainly, there will be another contender that surprises us this year as it always does). But them four are pretty easy bets. But I doubt they’d win Best Picture.

    Del Toro won an Oscar for his last film, so it’s unlikely they’d reward him Best Picture twice in a row, essentially.

    With Don’t Look Up, Adam Mckay’s tone is, perhaps, a bit too light and, although ambitious, he doesn’t stick the landing as well as most directors, too. For instance, Vice is a mess of a film. A very well-thought-out and put together film, with some great scenes and great performances, but…. it’s borderline incoherent at times.

    And Paul Thomas Anderson is, in many ways, akin to an Orson Welles or a Stanley Kubrick type of filmmaker, who makes pretty much universally acclaimed films that cinephiles love, but general audiences can’t get into so much (with the exception of Boogie Nights and possibly There Will Be Blood). And I just feel like Wes Anderson has a better avenue to Best Picture than PTA.

    Also, I don’t feel like Tragedy of Macbeth is the kind of flick that would win Picture. Been a very long time since a play adaptation has won picture, but I’d still say that, logically, Washington is probably the obvious frontrunner for Best Actor, right now.

    And, with Ridley Scott, he’s so hit and miss that calling his film the clear frontrunner right now is kind of disingenuous.

    A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

    Twitter: https://twitter.com/pierce_sir
    Letterboxd: https://letterboxd.com/11higuys/

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    schmids
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    #1204215607

    Well I’m not sure if I can answer your question directly and fully on that matter but Dreamgirls had three songs nominated that split with each other to paved the way for a documentary film to become the first documentary winner in this category. Enchanted had three songs nominated lost to an Irish indie musical with a more romantic tone of music. Just this year we have three political inspiration songs up against each other that could plausibly split and pave the way for a song from a musical about Eurovision or a song penned by Diane Warren to win. If all of the musicals end up being hits (which is an if because look at The Prom) and some of them break into the race then arguably the fact that there are so many of them trying to reach to the same crowd could likely result in them cannibalising each others votes and Eilish benefitting from a vote split.

    I see what you’re going for, but I don’t think one film with three nominated songs and three musicals with one nominated song each (hypothetical) is the same thing in terms of vote-splitting.

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    Jajajajjaja
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    #1204215628

    What can also help Thomasin is that she has Last Night in Soho as well. So overall goodwill could help her for either project.

    But there are also chances where she cancel herself out perhaps if she show us some kind of Black Swan or Get Out. Or maybe Old will ruin her chances

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    wolfali
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    #1204215652

    I see what you’re going for, but I don’t think one film with three nominated songs and three musicals with one nominated song each (hypothetical) is the same thing in terms of vote-splitting.

    Hence why I also mentioned the possibility of the three political songs nominated this year splitting with each other on Sunday…

    The only other contenders are Nightmare Alley, Soggy Bottom and Don’t Look Up. (Certainly, there will be another contender that surprises us this year as it always does). But them four are pretty easy bets. But I doubt they’d win Best Picture.

    I must be the only person predicting a Soggy Bottom shut out lol. I find it hard seeing that film survive its release date.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    lolo's
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    #1204215704

    I must be the only person predicting a Soggy Bottom shut out lol. I find it hard seeing that film survive its release date.

    I think it has been dated for November 26th, good prospects for the movie

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    Stank83
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    #1204215734

    Regardless of the release date, i can absolutely see the new PTA movie being just another Inherent Vice and flopping awards season wise.

    Another Los Angeles movie in the vein of Boogie Nights or Inherent Vice, starring a child actor as the protagonist and Bradley Cooper doesn’t inspire me confidence.

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