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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 7)

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    wolfali
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    #1204215737

    I think it has been dated for November 26th, good prospects for the movie

    I believe it’s December 22 no?

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Stank83
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    #1204215741

    26 Nov (Limited)

    Christmas (Wide)

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    LA26
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    #1204215752

    And, with Ridley Scott, he’s so hit and miss that calling his film the clear frontrunner right now is kind of disingenuous.

                                                   
    I think the starry cast of HoG-especially Gaga’s involvement-is why many have it as a frontrunner.

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    SN
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    #1204215758

    I believe it’s December 22 no?

    November 26 limited, December 22 wide.

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    vinichelsea
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    #1204216036

    Hmm… the guy that said he read the script from Coen’s The Tragedy of Macbeth just said stuff like “Frances has a minimal role” and “Denzel will win” and not much about the script itself… no spoilers are needed (well…) but there’s nothing wrong with saying if the dialogue has been updated or not, or if it’s set during the Jacobean Era or modern times like the latest trend in modern theatre.

    Also someone said “Red White and Water” is reshooting… I can’t find this ANYWHERE and this is some kind of news that just pops up on IndieWire or Variety because there’s nothing wrong with giving this news, it happens all the time…

    I don’t know, I’m not saying people are LYING but I’m seeing people go and put Denzel on their predictions and putting down “Red White and Water” and it’s all based on stuff that can’t even be considered insider information.

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    thomasrigours
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    #1204216159

    I hope The Card Counter will be a contender. Paul Schrader is one of the most underrated directors working today. I can see it being selected in competition in Cannes and winning big with Spike Lee being the President of the jury and good friend with Schrader.

    Oscar Isaac is also overdue for a nomination.

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    SoniNon
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    #1204216213

    The vague stories about those reshoots have been circulating since last year.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/todoxjlaw/status/1338888772092616705

    https://mobile.twitter.com/todoxjlaw/status/1338904634287648775

    https://twitter.com/JenniferUpdates/status/1384236214887194631

    And I would never count on Paul schrader. First reformed was a fluke. Everything else he’s done for decades has been trash.

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    thomasrigours
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    #1204216335

    And I would never count on Paul schrader. First reformed was a fluke. Everything else he’s done for decades has been trash.

    It was not a fluke, it was pure talent. He sure directed trashy movies but he also directed several gems such as Light Sleeper, Mishima or Blue Collar.

    For The Card Counter, Martin Scorsese helped him finish the film. Great article here : https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/movies/story/2020-09-11/covid-19-moviemaking-paul-schrader-the-card-counter-oscar-isaac

     

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    Diamond Tier
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    #1204216345

    Is Tick, Tick, Boom likely to be any kind of a factor anywhere? I’m not familiar with it at all.

    I could see Lin Manuel Miranda getting a Globe nod for Best Director.

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    schmids
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    #1204216464

    Hence why I also mentioned the possibility of the three political songs nominated this year splitting with each other on Sunday…

    Sure, but I don’t think we can use something that hasn’t happened yet as a reason why musicals may split next year either. I’m not saying it’s not impossible, I’m just saying that IMO the idea that songs from musicals could split for no reason other than they’re all songs from musicals doesn’t make sense to me.

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    LA26
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    #1204216736

    Disney will celebrate moviegoing during the Oscars this Sunday with exclusive trailers and talent: https://deadline.com/2021/04/disney-oscars-moviegoing-celebration-west-side-story-summer-of-soul-trailers-1234742010/

    There’s a brief mention at the end of possible first looks at Eternals, Nightmare Alley, The Last Duel, and Jungle Cruise.

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    Harmen Moes
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    #1204216745

    Exactly Don’t Look Up=The Irishman The Power of the Dog=Marriage Story

     

     

    And The Woman in the Window = The Two Popes

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    Igor Alves
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    #1204217033

    Watched In The Heights, maybe it’s because I am not a musical person but I didn’t love it. It was cute though, and enjoyable but I don’t see it being much of an oscar player?! Best chance for an above the line nom is Olga Merediz imo, I quite liked Anthony Ramos but a GG nom feels like the ceiling for him.

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    Arman Saxena
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    #1204217051

    In the Heights

    Cons: Too commercial, early release date

    The Power of the Dog

    Cons: Netflix film, maybe too “arty”

    Don’t Look Up

    Cons: Netflix, too much of a comedy

    House of Gucci

    Cons: A movie has to tackle a social issue to win now and this seems like a movie that will get some nominations in acting and some techs but no wins.

    Annette

    Cons: Great trailer but definitely too “arty” for wide audiences

    The French Dispatch

    Cons: Early release date (will it go to TIFF?) and it’s a problem if it leans too much into the anthology format

    Soggy Bottom

    Cons: It’d be better if that release date was like two weeks later but I think a bigger problem is that it may not be accessible for wide audiences

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Cons: Films like these do not win anymore and maybe Scott Rudin previously being attached to this might hinder it, idk?

    West Side Story

    Cons: It has to really distinguish itself from In the Heights and its late release date is problematic

    Nightmare Alley

    Cons: They already gave it to del Toro recently

    Dune

    Cons: Too genre and it has to be Mad Max: Fury Road-level acclaimed to even be a Best Picture winner conversation

    Don’t Worry Darling

    Cons: If it leans too much into horror, that’ll be a problem for its chances and, again, since its a genre film it has to be Get Out-level accessible and critically-acclaimed.

    Last Night in Soho

    Cons: Again too genre same criteria applies.

    Elvis

    Cons: Biopics like this don’t really win Best Picture even though Butler seems destined for a nomination.

     

     

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    Arman Saxena
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    #1204217055

    BTW, these are the factors against these films winning, not for them getting nominated.

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