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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 7)

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    jjjmoss1
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    #1204232640

    Lol same honestly. I don’t think people realize just how much the constant drumbeat from people is that Dunst is super underrated and been robbed too many times. The Power of the Dog could kinda end up a lot like La La Land or Silver Linings Playbook where, despite the a strong role for the Lead Actor, the sentiment coalesces far more around the Lead Actress. I mean…it’s a perfect storm.

    Well, both of those examples, the actress was being heralded as a Hollywood It Girl who already got embraced by the Oscars and was coming off a recent big franchise…none of those applies here.

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    Croman
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    #1204232670

    Despite being a Netflix film, The Power of the Dog will 100% be seen as a “small, indie film” because Jane Campion’s films are…kinda like that. Not to mention—there’s no news on TPOTD because they’re saving it as their critical push, whereas Don’t Look Up will 100% be more of a commercial push.

    Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog vs Louis Wain…I dunno. His part in Louis Wain would have to be KILLER for him to consider pushing that because the part, on paper, that he has for TPOTD is the kind of role Daniel Day-Lewis got in There Will Be Blood or Philip Seymour-Hoffman in The Master. And I fully expect The Power of the Dog to be as dramatic and twisted as these aforementioned films.  

    That’s exactly where I’m at with this movie. It seems like the strongest above-the-line contender at the moment and Venice wants to show it and it may go to Cannes too.

    Cumberbatch’s role sounds insane from what everyone says about his character in the book. I actually feel more confident about him than Dunst.

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    crabbie
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    #1204232680

    Cumberbatch seems a lock since he will also have goodwill from The Electrical Life of Louis Wain and was a previous nominee. I still think Dunst can get snubbed since the Academy and Emmys have been quite apathetic to her but this is her best shot at getting a nomination.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    schmids
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    #1204232700

    That’s exactly where I’m at with this movie. It seems like the strongest above-the-line contender at the moment and Venice wants to show it and it may go to Cannes too.

    I doubt it actually goes to Cannes. Why would Campion go to Cannes, a festival where she’s already won the biggest prize, out of competition, when she can save the big moment for Venice?

    And yes it’s very strong on paper but how many above-the-line wins has Netflix managed so far? Just Cuaron and Laura Dern IIRC.

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204232702

    I still think Dunst can get snubbed since the Academy and Emmys have been quite apathetic to her but this is her best shot at getting a nomination.

    The Oscars yes but not really at the Emmys. Yes she lost for Fargo but she lost to Sarah Paulson for O.J., that is an all timer acting of the century in medium. (At least they actually nominated her).

    Don’t really count Central Florida since got to forced to complete in Drama and got cancelled mid-season. If it was competing as a comedy and with a confirmed second season she likely would’ve bumped out with Cardellini or Ellis-Ross.

    Emmys FYC | Alan Tudyk in “Resident Alien” | Billie Piper in “I Hate Suzie” | Ego Nwodim in “Saturday Night Live” | Kaley Cuoco in “Harley Quinn” | “Dickinson” | “P-Valley” | “Pose” | “Superstore”

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204232711

    And yes it’s very strong on paper but how many above-the-line wins has Netflix managed so far? Just Cuaron and Laura Dern.

    Yep, which honestly, I think both would’ve happen without Netflix (more or less). Cuaron’s was nominated he mastermind behind thee most acclaimed film of the year and Dern was overdue, had serval “Oscar clips”, had in a banner year (In two BP nominees and Renata Klein), where her only competition for the win the entire season was a Razzie favourite popstar who was eventual snubbed.

    Emmys FYC | Alan Tudyk in “Resident Alien” | Billie Piper in “I Hate Suzie” | Ego Nwodim in “Saturday Night Live” | Kaley Cuoco in “Harley Quinn” | “Dickinson” | “P-Valley” | “Pose” | “Superstore”

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    schmids
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    #1204232737

    Yep, which honestly, I think both would’ve happen without Netflix (more or less). Cuaron’s was mastermind behind thee most acclaimed film and Dern was overdue, had serval “Oscar clips”, had in a banner year (In two BP nominees and Renata Klein), where her only competition for the win the entire season was a Razzie favourite popstar who was eventual snubbed.

    Right. Of course it’s possible that The Power of the Dog is Netflix’ big above-the-line breakthrough but their ratio of nominations to wins is pretty terrible at the minute.

    The Irishman: 0/10

    Trial: 0/6

    Marriage Story: 1/6

    Mank: 2/10

    Roma: 3/10

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    crabbie
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    #1204232833

    Netflix just has awful bad luck with films. Marriage Story was too much of a middle brow drama against monsters like Parasite, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Joker. Marriage Story would have done excellent this year where the majority of Best Picture nominees were just dramas. I mean look at how well <i>The Father</i> did as a character study drama.

    Mank, Trial of Chicago 7, The Irishman inspire passion from nobody. The Power of the Dog seems to hit the ceiling of high brow drama with elements of eerie tension and thriller like moments that will be able to compete against the likes of Nightmare Alley and House Of Gucci. It is a western after all. I am hoping the film is able to capture the passion that was well received from The Piano and capture the zeitgeist that was fond over There Will be Blood or Parasite. Its best shot is at Adapted Screenplay and in Acting. I don’t think it will win Picture.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    wolfali
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    #1204232914

    What about Promising Young Woman then? The point is, even though this is all about predictions, so strongly stating that a movie isn’t going to compete in this or that category without so much as having seen even a still shot is ludicrous. Especially from a lauded indie director.

    As someone who is proud of having had Promising Young Woman on their radar in their predictions around this time last season, I don’t see how it and The Northman are comparable at all.

    Promising Young Woman is not a fantasy viking epic saga from a niche indie director, it had strong buzz from Sundance, a topical premise that resonated with the industry (especially women in the industry) and Emerald Fennell was already a Golden Globe nominee and two time Emmy nominee and rising writer-director. Promising Young Woman also had an A lister attached to it as a producer.

    I’m a fan of Eggers film. The Northman could very well happen but if anything is “the Promising Young Woman of this year” it’s Don’t Worry Darling (a pro feminist thriller with high profile backing from another rising female writer-director starring a British Oscar nominee). Or even Last Night in Soho because whilst it wouldn’t have the topical nature Promising Young Woman had, it’s from a director popular with the zeitgeist and could be a big crowdpleaser (i.e. the director’s last film was a box office smash that was nominated for three Academy Awards and the stars are from films/series popular with the zeitgeist like Jojo Rabbit, Split and The Queen’s Gambit). It also is a film with a British pedigree like Promising Young Woman except its plot is grounded in the UK. Funnily enough they also even share the same distributor and a similar release date (due to the extended season this year, Promising Young Woman was released a month and before Globe voting as Last Night in Soho will be with its October release date and the December announcement of Globe nominations).

    It would be great if you wouldn’t continuously call out people who are not predicting a film from a director whose last two works haven’t been Academy friendly (and still doesn’t have a release set in this quickly filling calendar in this shorter season) to be some massive across the board contender.

    13. Matt Smith in Last Night in Soho

    13. Claire Foy in The Electrical Life of Louis Wain

    The Crown reunion?

    Someone call Vanessa Kirby and Jared Harris lol.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204232943

    What do we think of Zola’s chances. We’ve seen the Academy this past season go for less traditional pictures and subject matter. It’s already spawned a popular meme “wanna know how me and this bitch fell out?” with A24 releasing it in the summer, seems like their confident in being a somewhat decent commercial hit a la Ari Aster’s films and The Farewell.

    Emmys FYC | Alan Tudyk in “Resident Alien” | Billie Piper in “I Hate Suzie” | Ego Nwodim in “Saturday Night Live” | Kaley Cuoco in “Harley Quinn” | “Dickinson” | “P-Valley” | “Pose” | “Superstore”

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    puck05
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    Sep 21st, 2019
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    #1204232954

    Isn’t it too early for predictions? We are months away from festival premieres and critic reviews. Minari, Sound of Metal and Promising Young Woman were non-factors at this point last year.

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    schmids
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    #1204232956

    Isn’t it too early for predictions? We are months away from festival premieres and critic reviews. Minari, Sound of Metal and Promising Young Woman were non-factors at this point last year.

    That’s why the thread is called ‘very early predictions’.

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    LA26
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    #1204232960

    Next Best Picture published an article yesterday about their early 2022 predictions. No mention of Annette, which is weird but they included Red, White and Water, C’Mon C’Mon, and Armageddon Time which starts shooting this fall. The writer had Driver in supporting for HoG for his own predictions at the end. Could he be supporting instead of lead for that film?https://www.nextbestpicture.com/latest/year-in-advance-oscar-predictions-for-2021

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    AjayLopez25
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    Oct 24th, 2019
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    #1204232968

    my Oscars 2022 (super early) predictions

    Original Screenplay:

    top 5-

    Fran Kranz (Mass)

    Wes Anderson (The French Dispatch)

    Tracey Scott Wilson (Respect)

    Ron Mael, Russell Mael (Annette)

    Diana Ossana, Larry McMurtry (Good Joe Bell)

    next-in-line-

    Edgar Wright, Krysty Wilson-Cairns (Last Night In Soho)

    Jeymes Samuel, Boaz Yakin (The Harder They Fall)

    Katie Silberman, Carey Van Dyke, Shane Van Dyke (Don’t Worry Darling)

    Zach Baylin (King Richard)

    Paul Schrader (The Card Counter)

    followed by-

    Paul Thomas Anderson (Soggy Bottom)

    Zack Snyder, Shay Hatten, Joby Harold (Army Of The Dead)

    John Lee, Ilana Glazer (False Positive)

    Mike Mills (C’mon C’mon)

    Michelle Rosenfarb (Bruised)

    possible contenders-

    David O. Russell (Canterbury Glass)

    Gia Coppola, Tom Stuart (Mainstream)

    Mike Jones, Jesse Andrews (Luca)

    Qui Nguyen, Adele Lim (Raya And The Last Dragon)

    Will Sharpe, Simon Stephensen (The Electrical Life Of Louis Wain)

    another possible contenders-

    Neil Burger (Voyagers)

    Argyris Papadimitropoulos, Rob Hayes (Monday)

    Christopher Makoto Yogi (I Was A Simple Man)

    Jared Bush, Charise Castro Smith (Encanto)

    Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar (Jockey)

    and others-

    Kirk DeMicco, Quiara Alegría Hudes (Vivo)

    Emma Needell (The Water Man)

    Daniel Kehlmann (Next Door)

    David Murray (Every Breath You Take)

    Ivan Kavanagh (Son)

    Akela Cooper (Malignant)

    Julie Lockhart, Sarah Smith (Ron’s Gone Wrong)

    Mike Rianda, Jeff Rowe (The Mitchells Vs. The Machines)

    Chris Appelhans (Wish Dragon)

    Billy Crystal, Alan Zweibel (Here Today)

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    AjayLopez25
    Joined:
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    #1204232997

    my Oscars 2022 (super early) predictions

    Adapted Screenplay:

    top 5-

    Quiara Alegría Hudes (In The Heights)

    Denis Villenueve, Jon Spaiths, Eric Roth (Dune)

    Guillermo Del Torro, Kim Morgan (Nightmare Alley)

    Roberto Bentivegna (House Of Gucci)

    Tom MacRae (Everybody’s Talking About Jamie)

    next-in-line-

    Joel Coen (The Tragedy Of Macbeth)

    Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter)

    Emma Seligman (Shiva Baby)

    Chloé Zhao, Kaz Firpo, Ryan Firpo (Eternals)

    Jane Campion (The Power Of The Dog)

    followed by-

    Taika Waititi, Iain Morris (Next Goal Wins)

    Andrew Dominik (Blonde)

    Rebecca Hall (Passing)

    Matt Damon, Ben Affleck, Nicole Holofcener (The Last Duel)

    Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up)

    possible contenders-

    Steven Levenson (Dear Evan Hansen)

    David Leslie Johnson-McGoldrick (The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It)

    Rodrigo García, Eli Saslow (Four Good Days)

    Virgil Williams (A Journal For Jordan)

    Eric Pearson (Black Widow)

    another possible contenders-

    Cary Joji Fukunaga, Neal Purvis, Robert Wade, Phoebe Waller-Bridge (No Time To Die)

    Sian Heder (CODA)

    David Chase, Lawrence Konner (The Many Saints Of Newark)

    Dana Fox, Tony McNamara (Cruella)

    Tracy Letts (The Woman In The Window)

    and others-

    David Lowery (The Green Knight)

    Tony Kushner (West Side Story)

    Janicza Bravo, Jeremy O. Harris (Zola)

    Alice Birch (Mothering Sunday)

    Guillermo Del Torro, Patrick McHale, Gris Grimly, Matthew Robbins (Pinocchio)

    Eoin Macken (Here Are The Young Men)

    Radha Blank, Cole Wiley, Janece Shaffer (Monster)

    Taylor Sheridan, Michael Koryta, Charles Leavitt (Those Who Wish Me Dead)

    Scott Cooper, C. Henry Chaisson, Nick Antosca (Antlers)

    Philippe Falardeau (My Salinger Year)

    Guy Ritchie, Ivan Atkinson, Marn Davies (Wrath Of Man)

    Ricky Staub, Dan Walser (Concrete Cowboy)

    Oliver Hermanus, Jack Sidey (Moffie)

    Nick Schenk, N. Richard Nash (Cry Macho)

    Justin Lin, Daniel Casey (F9)

    Greg Russo, Dave Callaham (Mortal Kombat)

    Genndy Tartakovsky (Hotel Transylvania: Transformania)

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