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Very Early 2022 Oscar Predictions (Part 7)

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    wolfali
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    #1204212927

    Worth mentioning that with this extended field The Trial of the Chicago 7 was technically an August release in terms of the time between its release and the Oscars. Of course that’s more traditional Oscar bait (which neither Annette or CODA are) and had a lot of star power but it had streaming money like Annette and CODA do.

    That’s not me saying either film will do as well as Chicago 7 did but I think a Summer release date is less problematic if you have Amazon or Netflix or Apple behind you than it would be if you have Focus Features or Searchlight.

    but I’m fascinated by why this has been given a better release date than Last Night in Soho.

    I assume awards was probably something secondary to Focus’ dating of both films (i.e. it was something that influenced their decision for both films to be released during awards season). Last Night in Soho is a psychological horror being released near Halloween whilst a mere three weeks later when people are gearing up for Thanksgiving in America, Belfast, a semi-autobiographical film set in Ireland starring Catriona Balfe, Judi Dench and Jamie Dornan is being released.

    I feel like it’s similar to Warner Bros. releasing Joker in October and Richard Jewell in December. Both films are premiering during awards season and could be players but the difference in release date between the two films is probably due  to commercial reasons. It wouldn’t surprise me if The Northman was released in between Soho and Belfast.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Jajajajjaja
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    #1204213109

    Worth mentioning that with this extended field The Trial of the Chicago 7 was technically an August release in terms of the time between its release and the Oscar. Of course that’s more traditional Oscar bait (which neither Annette or CODA are) and had a lot of star power but it had streaming money like Annette and CODA do. That’s not me saying either film will do as well as Chicago 7 did but I think a Summer release date is less problematic if you have Amazon or Netflix or Apple behind you than it would be if you have Focus Features or Searchlight. I assume awards was probably something secondary to Focus’ dating of both films (i.e. it was something that influenced their decision for both films to be released during awards season). Last Night in Soho is a psychological horror being released near Halloween whilst a mere three weeks later when people are gearing up for Thanksgiving in America, Belfast, a semi-autobiographical film set in Ireland starring Catriona Balfe, Judi Dench and Jamie Dornan is being released. I feel like it’s similar to Warner Bros. releasing Joker in October and Richard Jewell in December. Both films are premiering during awards season and could be players but the difference in release date between the two films is probably due to commercial reasons. It wouldn’t surprise me if The Northman was released in between Soho and Belfast.

     

    You forgot to mention The Goldfinch i suppose. It was an Oscar bait and looks like it was gonna push Elgort and Kidman (and Picture to some extension), also WB’s oscar vehicle at that time before flopped really bad

     

    Belfast probably getting better release date because its a more conventional Oscar Bait than Soho but we never know what is going to happen. Dont forget with All the obsession with Anya Taylor Joy.

     

    I bet sooner enough People in GD will hate Taylor Joy just like other darlings like Robbie, Lawrence and Stone, lol

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    wolfali
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    #1204213117

    Yeah I feel like every year people overestimate “conventional Oscar bait”. That’s not to say Belfast won’t happen but these aren’t the 2000s anymore. The membership is more diverse and more open to outside picks.

    Biopics of famous real life people and Hollywood tend to be the only type of “conventional Oscar bait” films that do well here nowadays. Of course you’ll get your occasional Kathy Bates’ but there is a reason why Richard Jewell only got into the most open category last year.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    fefface
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    #1204213354

    Yeah I feel like every year people overestimate “conventional Oscar bait”.  

    Maybe for wins but the nomination leader this year is absolutely traditional Oscar bait, as were two of the double-digits nominees last year (Irishman and 1917).

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    wolfali
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    #1204213402

    Maybe for wins but the nomination leader this year is absolutely traditional Oscar bait, as were two of the double-digits nominees last year (Irishman and 1917).

    Well as I said in my post biopics celebrating Hollywood and about real life famous stars (like Mank and like Bohemian Rhapsody) are the only types of conventional “Oscar bait” that tends to perform well as of late.

    Personally I don’t consider The Irishman to be Oscar bait at all. I feel it’s more the next big gangster film from one of the most famous names in cinema. Of course it’s baity on that basis alone but I don’t think the plot was particularly conventional in its bait. I do agree that 1917 had the advantage of being a war film but that also had the novelty of the one take gimmick.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Chitanda170
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    #1204213426

    nothing about The Joker is iconic

    You can stay pressed

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    Chitanda170
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    #1204213446

    Blade Runner flopped at the box office. If Dune becomes a big hit they won’t resist themselves to nominate it for everything imo.

    Early screenings weren’t so good, some said the first hour is boring

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    SN
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    #1204213470

    Early screenings weren’t so good, some said the first hour is boring

    Early screenings were great for Batman v Superman.

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    Stank83
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    #1204213541

    Maybe for wins but the nomination leader this year is absolutely traditional Oscar bait, as were two of the double-digits nominees last year (Irishman and 1917).

    Agree about 1917 being extremely conventional Oscar bait (also supported by the whole overused gimmick of the continuous long one takes), but The Irishman is absolutely not Oscar bait, it took him over 10 years and a streaming service to get financed.

    Also its a different type of gangster movie, a 3,5 hour meditation about aging, mortality, regret, and obsolescence, all disguised as a crime movie, far from being conventional Oscar stuff.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204213692

    Early screenings weren’t so good, some said the first hour is boring

    I remember only some 5 star RLM reviews and a twitter one that gave the movie 9/10 and claimed he never read a book but that that the movie had so muhc normie appeal, which doesn’t sound like a Villeneuve.

    It’s bigger problem is ultra competitive boxoffice period in which it’s getting a release.

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    schmids
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    #1204213981

    Another potential stumbling block for Dune is that it will be way less accessible to people who haven’t read the source material than something like LOTR, plus there are a lot less people who are familiar with it. So it needs to get the world established pretty quickly and get on with it.

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    AniAbbina
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    #1204214442

    Oh my gosh. I just watched In The Heights. It is the best movie musical since Chicago. I need this to get nominated in every category. It has oscar-voter appeal to it but might easily get overshadowed. If it had a better awards release date, then it would be a lock but I don’t know. Olga Merediz is just as good as Anne Hathaway, Jennifer Hudson, and Catherine Zeta-Jones, and deserves to win the whole thing. She ran away with the movie for me. Anthony Ramos and Leslie Grace are also good. Corey Hawkins suprised me.

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    Diamond Tier
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    #1204214459

    I imagine In the Heights will be a big SAG & Globes contender. Even more so than West Side Story. ITH has a lot of commercial appeal.

    However, West Side Story could be the Oscar’s go to Musical choice. There’s more prestige behind it (Spielberg + a remake of a previous BP winner + more recognizable songs & characters).

    The comparisons between the two are already exhausting but inevitable. Voters are always keen on picking the token genre nominee in each BP race. So either 1 or neither will get in.

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    schmids
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    #1204214475

    I imagine In the Heights will be a big SAG & Globes contender. Even more so than West Side Story. ITH has a lot of commercial appeal. However, West Side Story could be the Oscar’s go to Musical choice. There’s more prestige behind it (Spielberg + a remake of a previous BP winner + more recognizable songs & characters). The comparisons between the two are already exhausting but inevitable. Voters are always keen on picking the token genre nominee in each BP race. So either 1 or neither will get in.

    There are six musicals out this year. West Side Story has the best release date (of those that are dated so far) and has the most ‘prestige’ but honestly it’s the one I’m least interested in.

    The very early hype for In The Heights was good but I am seeing a few people disappointed that some of the musical’s key subplots have been cut.

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    fefface
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    #1204214498

    Is Tick, Tick, Boom likely to be any kind of a factor anywhere? I’m not familiar with it at all.

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