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Watch my Oscar Predictions Smackdown with Sasha Stone!

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  • Tom O’Neil
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    Yes, I got the Greta Garbo of Oscarologists on camera again! Yippee. This is fun:

    http://www.goldderby.com/article/2018/pga-sag-awards-predictions-oscars-entertainment-news-814926375/

    Watch Sasha and I dish PGA, SAG and Oscars. Whatcha think? U agree with our assessments?

     

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    Riley
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    Sasha said something early that I keep hearing and has become conventional wisdom: Everyone likes Lady Bird, so it could cruise to a win on number-two votes.  The logic here is easy to understand.  But is that really how agreeable contenders work?  Does the film that nobody hates always appear the near the top of ballots or is just the case that it never appears at the very bottom?  Give me any lineup from the expanded Best Picture era and I can always find a few titles that I love.  The movies that I could not possibly hate do not get my number-two vote or even my number-three vote; they are consistently in the middle of my ballot (just above the ones that I dislike).

    Lady Bird is supposedly going to be everyone’s number-two because nobody hates it, but what kind of a bar is that?  Really, everyone is going to hate six or seven of the Best Picture nominees (that they helped nominate)?  It seems more likely to me that if nobody hates Lady Bird, it is doomed to consistently be everyone’s fifth-place vote, losing out to different pockets of passion, depending on the voter.  Ultimately, you need consensus to win Best Picture, but you need passion first or you will not make it to the final rounds of counting in the first place.

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    Riley
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    Listening to unpublished podcast recorded today with Tom and @eastwest!  Stay tuned (not for a video feed on the latter’s side though).  Turns out that he has not seen many contenders (Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, I, Tonya, Darkest Hour, All the Money in the World), but he will probably beat us all anyway. You do not have 3B in editing? Shame on you! My favourite insight is that Logan could get the fifth adapted slot because it was the first Oscar screener sent, back in September. “I’m more of an Emmys person than an Oscars person, honestly.” Preach!

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    eastwest
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    Holy shit! Is it already out?! My damn phone couldn’t get the video portion on my end to work, but next time I’ll be posted on my Mac. For the haters, this is a chance to talk your trash, b/c I’m an awkward mess IRL and I’m a nervous wreck to hear my voice if I decide to listen.

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    Teridax
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    Holy shit! Is it already out?! My damn phone couldn’t get the video portion on my end to work, but next time I’ll be posted on my Mac. For the haters, this is a chance to talk your trash, b/c I’m an awkward mess IRL and I’m a nervous wreck to hear my voice if I decide to listen.

    Where the heck can I find this podcast? I can’t wait to hear it! Will it be on the Goldderby main page have it as an article where I can listen to you like with any other podcast? I still haven’t put TB in Editing either, but that’s simply because I haven’t been able to decide what to take out in its place, not because I think it will actually be snubbed for Film Editing. I know it will make the cut, but over what else? Lady Bird? Maybe Get Out? I think the latter is more likely but it could just as easily be the former. I re-watched Three Billboards today and I confess that I like it now. I still have some issues with the movie but I totally get why people are calling it a masterpiece and it does feel like the kind of topically relevant movie that I can genuinely buy as a Best Picture Oscar winner. It will get into Film Editing, the real question is if Carter Burwell can get a 2nd Oscar nomination for Music Score?

    I’m predicting Logan to get into Adapted Screenplay at 66/1 odds. I finally worked up the nerve to put it in after it made the cut at both WGA and USC Scripter Awards. I really hope I’m right about that one.

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    Riley
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    Listening to unpublished podcast recorded today with Tom and eastwest! Stay tuned (not for a video feed on the latter’s side though).

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    AviChristiaans
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    Everyone loves Lady Bird? Really? We are still beating that drum?

    I am just imagining the older men of the Academy, the steak eaters putting Lady Bird as their No 1, No2 and No3 film of the year. I mean seriously?

    The same people who consistantly vote for the Hacksaw Ridge/American Sniper/The Kings Speech/No Country For Old Men/Spotlight/Birdman/The Big Short/The Revenant/Argo…..must i continue? You don’t and can’t win Best Picture with only the female vote. CONSENSUS.

    And stop assuming ALL females are gonna rank Lady Bird high.

    Lady Bird better win the PGA this weekend. Since it is that beloved by “the entire industry”.
    It has absolutely NO REASON to lose PGA on Saturday. No excuses. I don’t want to hear them. The ridiculous BOYHOOD excuses for it losing PGA and DGA was laughable.

    I can already see pundits screaming that Lady Bird still has a chance to win Best Picture after it loses PGA and SAG Ensemble this weekend.

    – PGA doesn’t mean anything.
    – SAG Ensemble win for a frontrunner doesn’t mean anything (Spotlight/Birdman/Argo/No Country for Old Men etc).
    – DGA is only for Director.
    – BAFTA doesn’t mean shit. Until Boyhood won there. Than it meant ALOT for Boyhood apparently!

    Boyhood. Right up until the end. So annoying!

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