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Watch our video slugfest: Anne Thompson on her Oscar and DGA predictions

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  • Tom O’Neil
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    #214709

    Watch our fun Oscar/ DGA chat with Anne Thompson — HERE:

    http://www.goldderby.com/news/11634/oscar-predictions-dga-entertainment-381695274-story.html
     

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    Riley
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    #214711

    Anne Thompson predicted Boyhood last year, so it seems that she did not learn her lesson about PGA (or maybe this is the year that she is finally correct to doubt it).  She says that Spotlight is the most important and I have heard that this season from many, but how is the financial crisis that wreaked havoc on the world not important and not more important?  She also counts it being a comedy against it and I do get what she is saying, but it is not like we have not had Best Pictures recently that did not lean comedic with Birdman and The Artist.

    BAFTA’s been right about Best Picture six of the last seven years.  It was wrong last year because it went with Boyhood, but in general, ever since they moved the date and changed the voting process at BAFTA to be in step with the Oscars, it’s been a fairly reliable set of tea leaves in some races anyway, so if we look to there and these are the kind of foreshadowing we like to see, Spotlight‘s not nominated for best director and that’s another example of everything’s out of whack this year, isn’t it, Anne?  The tea leaves we normally rely on aren’t being consistent.

    You could look at it as this massive anomaly or you could just take the tea leaves for what they are and count Spotlight kind of out of the race.

    The bells are not ringing on The Revenant‘s side so far, not really, not judging from the recent guild awards.

    What about how the Art Directors Guild awarded the “sets” of The Revenant over Bridge of Spies, Crimson Peak and The Danish Girl?  How about the Golden Globe sweep?

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    Chevi
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    #214712

    All these chats give us very interesting point of views to think about.
    I sticked with Spotlight at SAG, but I currently  have The Big Short winning the Oscar because I don’t see Spotlight winning at BAFTA (no director and edition nominations) or DGA.

    A little clarification: The Big Short doesn’t have 6 nominations and Spotlight 5, it’s the other way around.

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    CanadianFan
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    #214713

    The pundits this year are just incredibly bad.

    How the hell did none of them (except for Whipp and Stone) have ‘The Big Short’ in the top two for PGA? They have tried to force the narrative that ‘Spotlight’ was going to win Best Picture for months, and it has underperformed time and time again.

    It’s time to wake up and realize that ‘Spotlight’ is, at best, third in the best picture race. Not enough people are talking about the correlation between GG winners and the top prize at BAFTA (when that film does not go on to win BP).

    ‘The Aviator’, ‘Atonement’, ‘Brokeback Mountain’, and ‘Boyhood’ all won the GG and then went on to win BAFTA. ‘The Revenant’ is incredibly strong because of this AND the fact that they owe Inarritu for never awarding him.  Not only did they fail to award him for producing ‘Birdman’, but they also looked over him for his writing and directing, which he won at the Oscars. If that wasn’t enough, he also lost picture and director at BAFTA for ‘Babel’, a film that won the drama Globe.

    But, yes, let’s keep inventing this ridiculous narrative that ‘Spotlight’ is somehow second when it missed a directing nod at BAFTA, failed to win anything at the GG, and was snubbed by ACE. Cool, it won SAG, an awards show that is right about ~50% of the time. You know what has been right 100% of the time since it changed their voting system to match AMPAS? PGA, which went to ‘The Big Short’. I do think that if ‘The Revenant’ wins DGA and BAFTA, it has an outside shot, but please, give it up with regards to ‘Spotlight’. 

    7 of the top 24 users (29%) have ‘Spotlight’ winning. 15/22 (68%) of the “experts” do. So who are the real experts, and who are the frauds? 

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    Moviebuff22
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    #214714

    I agree Spotlight is being pushed by the media, imagine that. The big short is the favorite but I have a feeling the Revenant will win it all as it has the blockbuster quality, and the glitz and glamor the academy loves. Not to mention stellar performances. Innaritu could win back to back director as well, but that I’m not counting on unless he pulls off a suprise on Saturday. I think best director will be Mad Max’s consolidation prize

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    Riley
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    #214715

    I guess that Tom did bill her predictions in this video as “fearless” and “gutsy”.

    You tend to outperform me, percentage-wise, in these recent years, so I have to defer to you, Anne, as the expert to steal from, so please make up your mind, so I can make up my mind.

    Our gracious host is too humble.  Anne scored sixty-three percent last year and did not rank in the top two thousand.  You also beat her in nominations then.

    I don’t think Mad Max is going to win Best Picture.  I think it’s going to win director.  It’s going to win a lot of Oscars—a lot.

    Yet you only predict it for three, while the Gold Derby consensus has it down for seven.  Winning director and production design but losing editing, visual effects and both sound categories is a weird combination, especially when you do not have The Big Short or The Revenant taking Best Picture (as that would account for bonus technical wins).  I do like how you are taking Star Wars seriously for effects.

    Jennifer Jason Leigh is
    making this big comeback and she’s been around for a long time.  She’s
    been nominated before, but has never won.

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    Zooey the Dreamer
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    #214716

    Anne Thompson predicted Boyhood last year, so it seems that she did not learn her lesson about PGA (or maybe this is the year that she is finally correct to doubt it).  She says that Spotlight is the most important and I have heard that this season from many, but how is the financial crisis that wreaked havoc on the world not important and not more important?  She also counts it being a comedy against it and I do get what she is saying, but it is not like we have not had Best Pictures recently that did not lean comedic with Birdman and The Artist.[quote=”Tom O’Neil from 4:20 to 4:55″]BAFTA’s been right about Best Picture six of the last seven years.  It was wrong last year because it went with Boyhood, but in general, ever since they moved the date and changed the voting process at BAFTA to be in step with the Oscars, it’s been a fairly reliable set of tea leaves in some races anyway, so if we look to there and these are the kind of foreshadowing we like to see, Spotlight‘s not nominated for best director and that’s another example of everything’s out of whack this year, isn’t it, Anne?  The tea leaves we normally rely on aren’t being consistent.You could look at it as this massive anomaly or you could just take the tea leaves for what they are and count Spotlight kind of out of the race.

    The bells are not ringing on The Revenant‘s side so far, not really, not judging from the recent guild awards.

    What about how the Art Directors Guild awarded the “sets” of The Revenant over Bridge of Spies, Crimson Peak and The Danish Girl?  How about the Golden Globe sweep?

    [/quote]

    The ADG honored Jack Fisk. So let’s not start seeing best picture signs everywhere. Jack Fisk is beloved. Beloved.
    But let’s not forget something else. If Innaritu loses the DGA this weekend, the Globe “sweep” is meaningless, just as Boyhood’s snub last year was meaningless.
    The Revenant lost the PGA.
    The Revenant wasn’t even a SAG (cast) nominee.
    The Revenant isn’t a WGA nominee (and it isn’t an Oscar writing nominee).
    The Revenant even lost the Cinema Editors Guild.
    So if it loses the DGA, it’s done. Done. Best Picture winners have at least one of the big guilds. Even Braveheart had the WGA and the Cinema Editors Guild. 
    So yeah, unless Innaritu wins the DGA, it’s over.

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    Riley
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    #214717

    I agree that The Revenant is done if it loses DGA.  That is the point of the derby, which people seem to be missing this year.

    Is Jack Fisk really beloved (by the industry)?  He won critics’ awards for The Master and The Tree of Life, but was not nominated by the Oscars, ADG or BAFTA for either, nor was he nominated for The Thin Red Line, despite it being a period piece with seven nominations.  He has only won ADG (when nominated first of all and) when his film is the closest of the nominees to Best Picture.

    The Globes are meaningless, but it did not strike me as fair to say that The Revenant has struck out everywhere when it upset at the most visible awards.

    It may have come out too late for SAG.  Leo did get a nomination, but so did Jennifer Lawrence a couple of years ago and then American Hustle quadrupled its acting nominations for the Oscars.  Gravity also missed WGA, but I guess that your mileage on that varies based on whether you think that it could have won Best Picture without it or if its snub was indicative of its fated loss.  ACE does not like long takes.  Birdman could not even win the comedy category and Gravity also lost.  There are sufficient holes everywhere for me to count The Revenant still within the realm of possibility.

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    MrFilmkritik
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    #214718

    Just saw the slugfest with Chris Rosen and Mike Hogan. That was fun. Bring these guys more often, Tom!

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    Zooey the Dreamer
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    #214719

    Yes, but you’re talking about extremely divisive films. The Thin Red Line wasn’t, but both The Master and The Tree of Life had too much many detractors. 

    The thing is that all the major players have at least one of the guilds. Mad Max does if you count the Cinema Editors Guild as a big one. I do. It’s a year where each film has a weakness or two, but The Revenant was a hit with the Globes and outperformed in terms of Oscar nominations. But if you look back to back-to-back winners, they usually have a much stronger case for the win the second time. It’s different but it makes sense to me. Hanks was in a best picture winner the second time around. Hepburn was in a film that won the DGA. All About Eve had 14 Oscar nominations and won six Oscars, including picture. And right now in terms of industry support, The Revenant is weaker than Birdman was last year. Birdman had the PGA, the SAG (cast) and it went on to win the DGA, among others. I don’t say Innaritu can’t win back-to-back Oscars but he needs a consensus to do it. The Globes, the ADG, probably the ASC (even though I’m predicting Mad Max– because, after all, cinematographers are well aware of who the DP on the film is and they could think that two in a row is more than enough), even BAFTA aren’t really a consensus. 

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    babypook
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    #214720

    Hope she’s right re DGA.

     

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    Riley
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    #214721

    DGA
    ASC
    CAS
    SAG Actor
    ADG Period
    MPSE Dialogue
    VES Supporting

    There is time yet for a solid haul.  Is Mad Max‘s that great so far?  Chris says that it has won something everywhere and Anne said the same thing, so now Tom is repeating it in other podcasts, but it is not like it is cleaning up in competitive categories.

    SAG Stunts
    ACE Drama
    ADG Fantasy
    VES Simulation

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