I always find your discussions really interesting, but I do have to point out how off the mark you both are with regard to Albert Brooks in the Supporting Actor category. He is certainly locked for a nomination, even if he did (inexplicably) miss out at SAG. Voters know Brooks, he’s been around for a while, and what he did in Drive is impressively removed from the comedic work he is most remembered for. He was the main talking point in Drive, to the point that voters can/will nominate him without having even seen the performance. Now, the fact that many find Drive off-putting (which you mention as a con, or possibly meaning voters will turn off their screeners before seeing all that Brooks can do) will have more repercussions when it comes to the Plummer vs. Brooks showdown for the WIN, but Brooks is absolutely at the head of the pack for a nomination.
I did enjoy listening to what you said about Vanessa Redgrave, too. She is presenting quite the conundrum for awards-watchers this year. I’m sure you’re right in that SAG/GG/BFCA voters just didn’t see Coriolanus, but I do think missing out at the 3 major televised events (and not winning any regional critics’ awards either) puts a major halt in the momentum that the Academy tribute back in November gave to her. It’s an extremely uphill battle, and it’s too bad it looks like she’s out of it, when six weeks ago she looked like the only major contender who could give Octavia Spencer a run for her money for the actual win.