We need to talk about Lesley Manville

[ThiagoGarciaParticipant Joined: Jun 14th, 2013 Topics: 6 Posts: 50 View Predictions]

#1202478837

She is probably winning BAFTA.
That reminds me of Mark Rylance, who had only won BAFTA as well.
Sure, he was nominated for Critics, Globes and SAG, but Phantom Thread was released too late for those awards. Daniel Day-Lewis was certainly name-checked by voters from those groups. Now that the movie has properly been checked-out, it got 6 nominations and surprised everyone.
Like Rylance, Manville is a respected stage actress in a subtle performance. And we know Academy voters aren’t falling for overacting-oscar-baity performances as they used to. See Denzel in Fences… or Janney?

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[TheRedBoyParticipant Joined: Jan 22nd, 2013 Topics: 2 Posts: 502 View Predictions]

#1202478840

She’s probably in third place right now, but I do think there’s a (narrow) path to her winning.

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[pacinofanParticipant Joined: Nov 28th, 2011 Topics: 8 Posts: 4154 View Predictions]

#1202478845

Mark Rylance had won the lion’s share of the critics awards on his way to Oscar, so he had some strong backing on his way to Oscar in ways that Manville does not.

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[PulpParticipant Joined: Feb 13th, 2017 Topics: 22 Posts: 8443 View Predictions]

#1202478851

When Rylance won there was no clear frontrunner, Stallone won the globe and CC, he wasn’t nominated at Bafta, Elba took SAG but of course by the time he won that we already knew he wasn’t nominated for the oscar so Rylance made sense that year.

I think Janney is strong enough to take Bafta, they seemed to like I, Tonya .

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[Sally CarterParticipant Joined: Jan 12th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 67 View Predictions]

#1202478852

ThiagoGarcia wrote:

See Denzel in Fences… or Janney?

But what about Metcalf?

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[JackOParticipant Joined: Jun 2nd, 2011 Topics: 9 Posts: 2988 View Predictions]

#1202478887

I doubt she wins anything. Nomination is her reward.

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[Owl-Always-watchingParticipant Joined: Dec 13th, 2017 Topics: 1 Posts: 29 View Predictions]

#1202478890

Phantom thread was last movie I saw with supporting actress nomination and I have to say I would want her to win. She was excellent without saying much. Only problem is that she disappears for much of the second half.

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[PreludeinCSharpMinorParticipant Joined: Feb 18th, 2012 Topics: 6 Posts: 303 View Predictions]

#1202478993

Manville should have been nominated for Oscar in 2010 for Another Year. I know there was category confusion over supporting or lead. She won Lead Actress from a couple critics groups and BAFTA put her in supporting. For lead, I would have replaced Jennifer Lawrence or Michelle Williams with her, or supporting Jackie Weaver or Helena Bonham Carter.

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[GainParticipant Joined: Feb 8th, 2014 Topics: 2 Posts: 476 View Predictions]

#1202479342

PreludeinCSharpMinor wrote:

For lead, I would have replaced Jennifer Lawrence or Michelle Williams with her, or supporting Jackie Weaver or Helena Bonham Carter.

Oh god no. They were the best in the lineup that year.

Another Year had an ensemble cast without a clear lead, Manville should’ve been nominated for supporting and replaced the weakest in the lineup, aka Leo, or Steinfeld, who was clearly a lead in True Grit.

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[AwardsConnectKeymaster Joined: Jan 16th, 2016 Topics: 17 Posts: 3653 View Predictions]

#1202479439

I would agree Manville is probably winning BAFTA, plus of course helped by the surprise Best Picture nom, but such only creates a small pothole on Janney’s road to the Oscars. She’ll probably earn more votes than Blige and Spencer, though.

For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis (and my annual Oscar predictions contest), please visit me at The Awards Connection!

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[SNParticipant Joined: Dec 7th, 2014 Topics: 15 Posts: 222 View Predictions]

#1202479457

I just couldn’t believe it was her first nomination. I thought she already was Oscar nominee.

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[AtypicalParticipant Joined: Dec 1st, 2011 Topics: 286 Posts: 18161 View Predictions]

#1202479478

“Phantom Thread” is opening here this weekend! FINALLY!

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[FilmatelistParticipant Joined: Nov 19th, 2011 Topics: 11 Posts: 455 View Predictions]

#1202479500

I certainly hope Manville wins, but the comparison with Rylance is a weak one. She may be admired as a stage actress in the UK, but has made very little impact on the theater scene in the states. By contrast, Rylance had already won 3 Tonys (in a wide variety of productions) by the time BRIDGE had come out. She actually has had a more active film career than he has (thanks primarily to Mike Leigh) but I think her reputation is still on a different level than his upon his nomination.

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[Anonymous Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 55 Posts: 2986 View Predictions]

#1202479530

I’m confident in my Manville prediction. It could certainly stir up the race. Metcalf is currently in a strong second place as her film has more support and her performance has a lot of passion. Perhaps such a two way race would open it up for Manville, especially since her movie has so much surprising support and she seems to be the consensus MVP.

I am seeing the film this weekend.

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[EmmyWinnerParticipant Joined: Apr 28th, 2016 Topics: 2 Posts: 956 View Predictions]

#1202479831

She would make a terrific winner but I don’t think she stands a chance against Janney.

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