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January 25, 2018 at 3:02 pm #1202478837
She is probably winning BAFTA.
That reminds me of Mark Rylance, who had only won BAFTA as well.
Sure, he was nominated for Critics, Globes and SAG, but Phantom Thread was released too late for those awards. Daniel Day-Lewis was certainly name-checked by voters from those groups. Now that the movie has properly been checked-out, it got 6 nominations and surprised everyone.
Like Rylance, Manville is a respected stage actress in a subtle performance. And we know Academy voters aren’t falling for overacting-oscar-baity performances as they used to. See Denzel in Fences… or Janney?January 25, 2018 at 3:07 pm #1202478840
She’s probably in third place right now, but I do think there’s a (narrow) path to her winning.January 25, 2018 at 3:16 pm #1202478845
Mark Rylance had won the lion’s share of the critics awards on his way to Oscar, so he had some strong backing on his way to Oscar in ways that Manville does not.January 25, 2018 at 3:18 pm #1202478851
When Rylance won there was no clear frontrunner, Stallone won the globe and CC, he wasn’t nominated at Bafta, Elba took SAG but of course by the time he won that we already knew he wasn’t nominated for the oscar so Rylance made sense that year.
I think Janney is strong enough to take Bafta, they seemed to like I, Tonya .January 25, 2018 at 3:58 pm #1202478887
I doubt she wins anything. Nomination is her reward.January 25, 2018 at 4:00 pm #1202478890
Phantom thread was last movie I saw with supporting actress nomination and I have to say I would want her to win. She was excellent without saying much. Only problem is that she disappears for much of the second half.January 25, 2018 at 5:49 pm #1202478993
Manville should have been nominated for Oscar in 2010 for Another Year. I know there was category confusion over supporting or lead. She won Lead Actress from a couple critics groups and BAFTA put her in supporting. For lead, I would have replaced Jennifer Lawrence or Michelle Williams with her, or supporting Jackie Weaver or Helena Bonham Carter.January 26, 2018 at 5:44 am #1202479342
For lead, I would have replaced Jennifer Lawrence or Michelle Williams with her, or supporting Jackie Weaver or Helena Bonham Carter.
Oh god no. They were the best in the lineup that year.
Another Year had an ensemble cast without a clear lead, Manville should’ve been nominated for supporting and replaced the weakest in the lineup, aka Leo, or Steinfeld, who was clearly a lead in True Grit.January 26, 2018 at 7:43 am #1202479439
I would agree Manville is probably winning BAFTA, plus of course helped by the surprise Best Picture nom, but such only creates a small pothole on Janney’s road to the Oscars. She’ll probably earn more votes than Blige and Spencer, though.
For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis (and my annual Oscar predictions contest), please visit me at The Awards Connection!January 26, 2018 at 8:10 am #1202479457
I just couldn’t believe it was her first nomination. I thought she already was Oscar nominee.January 26, 2018 at 8:27 am #1202479478
“Phantom Thread” is opening here this weekend! FINALLY!January 26, 2018 at 8:48 am #1202479500
I certainly hope Manville wins, but the comparison with Rylance is a weak one. She may be admired as a stage actress in the UK, but has made very little impact on the theater scene in the states. By contrast, Rylance had already won 3 Tonys (in a wide variety of productions) by the time BRIDGE had come out. She actually has had a more active film career than he has (thanks primarily to Mike Leigh) but I think her reputation is still on a different level than his upon his nomination.January 26, 2018 at 9:06 am #1202479530
I’m confident in my Manville prediction. It could certainly stir up the race. Metcalf is currently in a strong second place as her film has more support and her performance has a lot of passion. Perhaps such a two way race would open it up for Manville, especially since her movie has so much surprising support and she seems to be the consensus MVP.
I am seeing the film this weekend.
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