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We should've seen Phantom Thread coming.

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  • ThiagoGarcia
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    #1202485950

    Why did we get surprised?

    Every time Daniel Day-Lewis is nominated, the movie also gets Best Picture and Best Director nominations.

    This is something for us – stats suckers.

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    Stegeo
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    #1202485965

    I personally predicted it for Picture and Supp Actress as well, so I sleep guiltless at night.

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    Riley
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    #1202485969

    Although certainly a failure on our part, I disagree. Before Phantom Thread, every time that Daniel Day-Lewis had been nominated, his film had been nominated for its screenplay at all of the Oscars, BAFTA and WGA, as well as in the drama film category at the Globes. So what happened there? This film was obviously shaping up to be an anomaly in Day-Lewis’s Oscar statistics. I would have considered Phantom Thread for picture and director if The Master had not been shut out, outside of acting. That film from the same writer-director was more polarizing, yet still averaged out to a stellar 86 on Metacritic, so it should have been able to get the number-ones. It even received seven Critics’ Choice nominations.

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    Maxwell
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    #1202485971

    Although certainly a failure on our part, I disagree. Before Phantom Thread, every time that Daniel Day-Lewis had been nominated, his film had been nominated for its screenplay at both the Oscars and BAFTA, as well as in the drama film category at the Globes. So what happened there? This film was obviously shaping up to be an anomaly in Day-Lewis’s Oscar statistics. I would have considered Phantom Thread for picture and director if The Master had not been shut out, outside of acting. That film from the same writer-director was more polarizing, yet still averaged out to a stellar 86 on Metacritic, so it should have been able to get the number-ones.

    I have a feeling Haneke ate up the highbrow support that year, and The Master would’ve made it in if Amour hadn’t shown up strong.

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    kbfr12
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    #1202485972

    Yeah, it seems pretty obvious now, but hindsight, etc.

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    Pulp
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    #1202486084

    I don’t think we should have. It didn’t get nominated anywhere prior to the Oscars. That DDL always getting in with picture and director seems so fucking random. Like, good for you if you trusted that one really random stat, but it’s not going against the stats to not predict it.

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    Eden
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    #1202486115

    On nominations morning, hours before the deadline for the predictions center, I was thinking whether to put it in my predictions, mainly because of the high score on Metacritic and the love I’ve noticed from actors, but in the end, I put only Manville and DDL. But no other reasonable reason to predict it.

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    JackO
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    #1202486157

    I did have it predicted in BP and Supporting Actress, but pretty much gave up on everything after SAG. So eh, better than never considering it at all.

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    pacinofan
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    #1202486159

    I believe it was tenth in my best picture predictions so I predicted it but barely so and with great trepidation.

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    AwardsConnect
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    #1202486200

    The only thing that really surprised me was PTA in Director, as opposed to Screenplay. I had it 9th in Picture and predicted Manville too.

    For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis (and my annual Oscar predictions contest), please visit me at The Awards Connection!

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    GusCruz
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    #1202486209

    The amount of praise on Twitter and Letterboxd by people I know are Academy members for this film during voting window was too big to ignore

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