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Weighting of Voting Branches Key to Parasite's Chances?

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    Kim Cardassian
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    Below is each of the 17 voting branch, percentage of the voting body, and which of the two films (1917 vs Parasite) it’ll likely favor in the Best Picture category:

    Acting (15.6%): Parasite won SAG; more diverse than any category
    Short Films & Animation Shorts (8.7%): Parasite as there’s lots of indie crossover/support in shorts; Animators consists of younger demographic
    Executive (7.0%): 1917 will get executives from bigger studios; lots of traditional-minded, older voters in this group
    Producers (6.9%): 1917 won PGA
    VFX (6.4%): 1917 favored to win VFX
    Directors (6.2%): 1917 won DGA
    Marketing & PR (6.1%): Parasite is the media darling; love Bong; rooting for frenzy
    Sound (5.9%): 1917 likely to sweep sound mixing & editing
    Documentary (5.7%): Parasite as docs produced by more diverse, international-minded filmmakers
    Writers (5.7%): Parasite favored to win Original Screenplay; more script-heavy than 1917
    Members-at-large (4.5%): Unsure; Gonna split this 50-50
    Film Editors (4.1%): Parasite beautifully edited; 1917 not nominated
    Music (4.1%): 1917 strong for its score; lots of love for Thomas Newman
    Production Designers (4.1%): Tough one but will go with 1917 with better odds to win PD
    Cinematographers (3.2%): 1917 will surely dominate thanks to Deakins
    Makeup & Hairstyle (2.4%): 1917 as it’s nominated while Parasite is not
    Costume Designers (1.8%): Mostly women, can’t seem them rallying for all-male film
    Casting Directors (1.5%): Close call but SAG ensemble win favors Parasite

    The weightings for each of the 17 voting branches matter because if we were to say that the VFX made up 10% of the voting body instead of 6.4% then 1917’s chances increase greatly, and likewise if the marketing & PR numbers were much higher it would favor Parasite.

    Adding up the numbers from each of the respective branches, Parasite edges 1917 with 52% support. But at closer look I feel 1917’s support in its respective areas could be tighter than Parasite’s; especially if 1917’s support from the executive & producer branch is stronger than Parasite’s support from the acting branch.

    Either way, one thing is certain: based on the voting distribution of each of the categories & where they may potentially favor, I could confidently say that 1917 won’t be walking away with Picture easily and that Parasite is being under-estimated.

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    Kim Cardassian
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    Anthony 🐜
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    This entire post makes no sense.

    Voting a film for Visual Effects does not mean that voter will automatically vote it for Best Picture. Far from it. The same with any other category.

    And why do people keep assuming that the new International, POC voter base only likes highbrow films?

    Joker did not get a leading 11 nominations because of a group of traditional-minded, older voters, or “old white men”. I can bet you thousands of dollars the younger leaning, International voters are Joker’s core fanbase. They pushed that film over the edge.

    The same with Bohemian Rhapsody. That film drew a broad spectrum of audiences and fans. International, POC and young.

    And just last year, Green Book won Best Picture on a preferential ballot. Not only because of the “traditional-minded” older voters. Don’t let the Twitter outrage fool you, a lot of people in the industry loved that film. From all backgrounds. POC (black people) included. An especially younger people. They just won’t admit it in public because of the outrage culture we live in.

    I don’t believe in the “international-minded filmmakers” notion. Or “traditional-minded”. People love films because of different reasons.

    The underlying assumption across the internet that People of Color will automatically vote Parasite over 1917 is ridiculous. Or that International voters will “OBVIOUSLY” vote for Parasite. Nonsense.

    You can love Joker and The Irishman. There’s no mindedness to it. You can also love JoJo Rabbit, ROMA and Green Book equally. Taste is subjective, and people draw different aspects of “love” out of art.

    Whichever film wins Best Picture was the overall preferred choice among all voters. Whatever metric these voters used to come to their decision, that’s the film most of them preferred.

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    JackO
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    lol this is nonsensical.

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    jez89
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    This entire post makes no sense. Voting a film for Visual Effects does not mean that voter will automatically vote it for Best Picture. Far from it. The same with any other category. And why do people keep assuming that the new International, POC voter base only likes highbrow films? Joker did not get a leading 11 nominations because of a group of traditional-minded, older voters, or “old white men”. I can bet you thousands of dollars the younger leaning, International voters are Joker’s core fanbase. They pushed that film over the edge. The same with Bohemian Rhapsody. That film drew a broad spectrum of audiences and fans. International, POC and young. And just last year, Green Book won Best Picture on a preferential ballot. Not only because of the “traditional-minded” older voters. Don’t let the Twitter outrage fool you, a lot of people in the industry loved that film. From all backgrounds. POC (black people) included. An especially younger people. They just won’t admit it in public because of the outrage culture we live in. I don’t believe in the “international-minded filmmakers” notion. Or “traditional-minded”. People love films because of different reasons. The underlying assumption across the internet that People of Color will automatically vote Parasite over 1917 is ridiculous. Or that International voters will “OBVIOUSLY” vote for Parasite. Nonsense. You can love Joker and The Irishman. There’s no mindedness to it. You can also love JoJo Rabbit, ROMA and Green Book equally. Taste is subjective, and people draw different aspects of “love” out of art. Whichever film wins Best Picture was the overall preferred choice among all voters. Whatever metric these voters used to come to their decision, that’s the film most of them preferred.

    Great post. Some of the crap that gets posted about the “old white men”/”steak eater” voters is really daft.

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    Kim Cardassian
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    First off I never said anything is automatic. It’s pure speculation. I could be dead wrong about all this. The numbers definitely aren’t entirely reflective of what will happen but merely to open up a discussion.

    But I find it surprising you wouldn’t think that a person’s job, background and life experience has some effect on what he or she may like, especially with films. For instance, don’t you think it’s plausible that most Asian or foreign-born voters could get behind Parasite because they want to see people like themselves on the screen for a change?

    Similarly, you could find an abundance of support that a movie like 1917 has with VFX voters who could fully understand and appreciate the kind of work that went to make that film pop. People on podcasts talk about this as one of their reasons behind their predictions. Ben Zauzmer author of Oscarmetrics has mentioned of those intrinsic forces, in that a film garnering more technical nominations & wins increases probability of winning Picture. It’s common sense.

    Green Book was a special case in how it won. Hardly anyone saw it coming. Perhaps you’re a fan of the film, but don’t get butt hurt over the criticisms it’s received. It didn’t receive widespread acclaim or appeal. Also, the Academy voters and the general public don’t think and behave the same. Why is it at every Oscar doesn’t the best film of the year win Best Picture? Let’s not forget #Oscarsowhite or the bias against certain types of actors or genres. There’s a lot of politics at play.

    My whole point is that it’s not just how one likes the film. MOTIVE also factors in. How will that film winning Best Picture could benefit them and their careers? Indie producers want Parasite to win because it’ll open more doors and opportunities for them to compete against the bigger studios.

    Friendships can also affect their choices especially their feelings for certain actors or artists. I don’t think that’s right, but it happens a lot and it’s why we gotta address it. That’s why we’re so outraged with a lot of the anonymous voter comments. It’s why I’ve factored some of these bias as part of how I’m predicting my picks.

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    oscarin7
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    I have a hunch Parasite will win. Let’s just hope!!!

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