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What are the actual chances of Parasite winning Best Picture?

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  • BlackBalls
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    Very few films have awed me like Parasite. I remember watching it the first time thinking it was a masterpiece but then after my second viewing – perfection.

    However, as we know the Oscars favor heavily English language films, its always been that way. I honestly thought Roma was going to easily win last year, but it ended up going to a pretty generic Oscar bait film.

    That being said, I feel like Parasite is much more universally praised than Roma especially with audiences. It’s a film that will appeal to everyone. In all my years of watching movies, it’s the first foreign language film that makes me say, “It could actually win the Oscar.” But am I being a bit too naive?

    So, now I ask ya’ll, what are the actual chances of it winning Best Picture?

    I’m saying maybe 30%? I’m really looking forward for the nominations on Monday. If it pulls a surprise best supporting actor and a couple of technical nominations, I can see it going up to 50%.

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    Hammad Asif
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    Wait for Guilds.

    Kubrick-Scorsese-Nolan-Coens-PTA-Fincher-Hitchock-Spike-Tarantino-Wes Anderson-Bong Joon-Ho

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    BlackBalls
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    Wait for Guilds.

    Yes, I’ve also thought this. I think right now things are uncertain because it was not eligible for the globe, I’d expect other awards to give us a clearer picture.

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    Keth
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    #1203273567

    I think “Parasite” would have a decent shot for the Best Picture win if it was a straight vote. If there are eight films nominated, it could easily get 30-35% of the vote. Depending on the breakdown of the other nominees, this could put “Parasite” over the top.

    Unfortunately, the preferential ballot method throws a curveball in the Best Picture race. I think it makes a best picture win for “Parasite” more of a challenge.

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    Rory's First Kiss
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    #1203273571

    I’m curious whether the HBO news yesterday helps or hurts Parasite’s chances?

    "This is not 'Nam. This is bowling. There are rules."

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1203273617

    I think it has a great chance. There will be passion for The Irishman, Hollywood, 1917, Little Women, Joker, Marriage Story and Parasite – the fact that there are that many films viable for BP with the way voting is done in the one and only category will help. I think the BP Oscar is going to be between Parasite and whatever wins the PGA award (if Parasite wins the PGA award it will definitely win the Oscar). I believe it was between Green Book and Roma last year, but this year has more films that have a lot of passion which would help Parasite.

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    John Berchmans
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    Very low with Critic’s Choice most likely rubber-stamping one of the Globe victors (in this case OUATIH and 1917). The only path to victory it has is if the PGA’s vote for it like they did with The Shape of Water. But that film swept the guilds, and Parasite won’t. Sadly it’s chances in every category except Foreign Film feel very low now, and that makes me sad as someone who loves the film. The Academy needs to take greater measures in the future to better recognize fantastic foreign films over mediocre American cinema.

    Academy-Award winners:

    Parasite: Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay

    Joker: Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix

    Jojo Rabbit: Best Adapted Screenplay

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    Blanche
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    #1203273646

    I would say that right now Hollywood is leading (50%) followed by 1917 (40%) and Parasite is third (10%)

    Last.fm: https://www.last.fm/es/user/Into_You

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    methaddiction
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    I don’t think its chances are very high it doesn’t seem as big as Roma did and it winning Foreign Film won’t help either.

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    Nikhil
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    I wish CC had more of a backbone because if they did Parasite would be their winner. If CC + SAG go for it, I think it’s possible. A PGA win would seal the deal for me, but that group doesn’t really go for smaller films so I’m doubtful.

    Top 3 Films of the Year: Parasite, The Farewell, OUATIH

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    ArtIsntEasy
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    As of this exact moment, I think it could still pull it off but that’s also me mixing in my own personal love for the film and being too hopeful.

    If it manages to win the PGA, I think it will retain a solid frontrunner status. That status will only be emboldened if it wins the DGA along with the SAG and CC. I think if it loses the PGA, it probably will lose the Oscar which is sad.

    “The art of making art is putting it together...”

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    James Breheney
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    Well its chances just took another blow yesterday with the announcement that there’s gonna be an English language remake of it. I also think because it will get the booby prize of Best International Film a lot of voters will opt away from putting it in their top three on their ballots. Why vote for it in Best Picture when they’re voting for it in Best International Film? That’s the attitude many voters have I’m afraid.

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    James Breheney
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    As of this exact moment, I think it could still pull it off but that’s also me mixing in my own personal love for the film and being too hopeful. If it manages to win the PGA, I think it will retain a solid frontrunner status. That status will only be emboldened if it wins the DGA along with the SAG and CC. I think if it loses the PGA, it probably will lose the Oscar which is sad.

    I’ll eat my hat if it wins PGA or DGA lol. I think it has a shot at SAG but not at the prior two. I feel a lot of us are ignoring the elephant in the room: it’s winning foreign film so why vote for it in picture?

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    Beastialg
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    The best movie of the year by far, but it will be a challenge. I agreed that being a best foreign movie candidate and frontrunner to win that category hurts it the most (same as Roma). That’s why I also think an animated movie will never win too.

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    Dorsey
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    #1203273749

    It’s in a solid 3rd. It really needs a big win soon outside of the foreign category though. Which it DESERVES! Hopefully the shortened season helps the Critics Choice voters think for themselves.

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