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What can we learn from this year’s Oscars?

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  • RIDLEY SCOTT
    Joined:
    Dec 12th, 2020
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    #1204887144

    I don’t think this is necessary a reflect of conservative vs liberal values (After all, a film like Green Book actually appeals more to the white liberals, considering the US conservatives really rejected the film). Just watch the French Oscar nominees of this season (At the Cesar Awards), this film got critical acclaim, was the 4th most successful film at BO in France, got 10 nominations including Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay and Actress, winning the last one (Over the Palme d’Or winner, the UCR special award winner and other more “serious stuff”. I bet people here will scream like crazy after seeing the film and saying “How the hell Valerie Lémercier won Best Actress over Virginie Efira? What have the voters in their heads?”

    In German Awards, popular films tend to win. And related to Latin America being more “conservative” than USA, haha. Depends which region or country, especially under these 2 recent decades.

    Cubans are 10000% More Conservatives

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    UnionCityMood
    Joined:
    Jan 8th, 2022
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    #1204887155

    Focus on the momentum, not the stats. Stats are meant to be broken.

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    roger88
    Joined:
    Sep 20th, 2012
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    #1204887200

    Cubans are 10000% More Conservatives

    Cubans are 10000% More Conservatives

    Cubans aren’t the sole representative of Latin America, dumb. There are 25 independent nations, each with different idiosyncratic values.

    Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil approved same sex marriage before the USA. Countries like Mexico, Argentina and Chile have more equalitarian representation for women in public charges, even required by law. Uruguay was one of the first countries which approved the use of cannabis. And countries like Ecuador and Argentina forbids the conversion therapy (Something which even Western first World countries are still behind). Even under the eyes of these conservative cuban groups, Mexicans, Argentinians, Uruguayans and even Chileans in recent years are more left wing red socialists lol.

    Of course that doesn’t mean LATAM is a promised land, but that comment is not only ignorant but also xenophobic and bigoted.

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    babypook
    Joined:
    Nov 4th, 2010
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    #1204887213

    Cubans aren’t the sole representative of Latin America, dumb. There are 25 independent nations, each with different idiosyncratic values.

    Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil approved same sex marriage before the USA. Countries like Mexico, Argentina and Chile have more equalitarian representation for women in public charges, even required by law. Uruguay was one of the first countries which approved the use of cannabis. And countries like Ecuador and Argentina forbids the conversion therapy (Something which even Western first World countries are still behind). Even under the eyes of these conservative cuban groups, Mexicans, Argentinians, Uruguayans and even Chileans in recent years are more left wing red socialists lol.

    Of course that doesn’t mean LATAM is a promised land, but that comment is not only ignorant but also xenophobic and bigoted.

    Excellent. Plus, you’ve named some of my favorite soccer teams.

    The Sunne in Splendour.
    I prefer my roses white

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    Rubeus
    Joined:
    Nov 1st, 2012
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    #1204887238

    That Bryce Dallas Howard has a pretty good shot of winning an Oscar in the upcoming years.

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    Will, from Cal
    Joined:
    Jun 17th, 2011
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    #1204887482

    That Bryce Dallas Howard has a pretty good shot of winning an Oscar in the upcoming years.

    Tbh, she should have gotten one for her appearance on Conan where she cried on cue over Home Depot. Actually superlative thespian-ing.

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    BigJay2012
    Joined:
    Nov 30th, 2011
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    #1204887488

    Actually if Aunjanue can get some great roles in the next couple of years she might be the next one from The Help to win.

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    kat_ebbs
    Joined:
    Jun 10th, 2021
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    #1204887500

    Actually if Aunjanue can get some great roles in the next couple of years she might be the next one from The Help to win.

    I am predicting Aunjanue every time she is any project with profile from herein. Extremely under-rated threat awards wise.

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    kbc
    Joined:
    Sep 16th, 2021
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    #1204887502

    I agree we have to wonder if it fits the current situation, but I don’t think we should wonder why it exists.

    CODA broke a lot of stats for a very good reason. It wasn’t a competitive contender in the nominations phase and came out of nowhere when Apple started a massive campaign that easily defeated the divisive frontrunner. If the surge happened sooner or the nominations came later, it surely would’ve been nominated for DGA, Editing and at least one more acting category.

    Many people predicted Dune to lose Editing despite the Editing/Sound stat. It proved to be right once again. Why? We don’t know, but it paid off.

    Well reasoned. Typically stats lead people to correctly predict what you don’t need stats to predict (gimmes that most people who don’t look at stat one would get right), and lead people to incorrectly predict what you need to have a more nuanced view about the process to nail down. The first part is easy-peasy, and doesn’t require all the deep dive statsgeekery that people throw around to grasp – the second is the tougher nut to crack, and requires a nimbleness and reflection that elude the obsessive stats adherents.

    FYC
    Best Picture: "Aftersun" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
    Best Director: Charlotte Wellls; Luca Guadagnino
    Best Actress: Frankie Corio; Taylor Russell
    Best Actor: Paul Mescal; Timothee Chalamet
    Best Supporting Actress: Chloe Sevigny
    Best Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
    Best Original Screenplay: Charlotte Wells
    Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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    Will, from Cal
    Joined:
    Jun 17th, 2011
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    #1204887526

    Well reasoned. Typically stats lead people to correctly predict what you don’t need stats to predict (gimmes that most people who don’t look at stat one would get right), and lead people to incorrectly predict what you need to have a more nuanced view about the process to nail down. The first part is easy-peasy, and doesn’t require all the deep dive statsgeekery that people throw around to grasp – the second is the tougher nut to crack, and requires a nimbleness and reflection that elude the obsessive stats adherents.

    I can’t help how much fun I’m having being back around here.

    This obsessive statsgeek, who has 40 pages of spreadsheets that I guess have no nuance in them anywhere, did pretty freaking well and has the receipts.

    Y’all got CODA. That’s good. Feel free to lord it over me, representative of statsgeeks everywhere. And sure, anyone coulda called Best Actor. But what of these other categories?

    Original Screenplay? Some people said Don’t Look Up or Licorice Pizza. My stats analysis led me to Belfast. Guess what worked.

    Actress? A bunch of people switched to Cruz. There were 85 threads, the race was so open. Stats led me to Chastain. Guess what worked.

    Looking at he Crafts thread here, and boy did people have doubts. Song? Encanto had the buzz. I stayed with the stats favorite. Guess what worked. Cinematography? First female winner is such a narrative! I stayed with the stats favorite. Production Design, Score, Documentary, Animated? Got ’em all right. All of ’em.

    Editing? I actually went against my stats and tried for a big bet. Guess what didn’t pay off? Stats win again.

    GoldDerby has a racehorse for a mascot. Like a horserace, how the jockeys feel about the race has no meaning. The goal is to get to the finish line fastest. Here, the goal is to get the most predictions right. You got 3 I didn’t. I got 7 you didn’t. Stats win.

    Maybe I have a lesson to learn from those folks that got 100 this year. But I feel pretty good as it stands about the “nimbleness” that is “eluding” me, and how well it’s helping me do.

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    kbc
    Joined:
    Sep 16th, 2021
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    #1204887535

    The most disliked movie by the general audience isn’t going to slay a preferential ballot. Based on imdb, would have been the least embraced film by modern audiences since 1963’s Tom Jones.

    I love Tom Jones.

    But yeah no distributor was going to get Power of the Dog to BP on a preferential ballot this season. And any distributor, even Drive My Car‘s Janus, even Mass‘s Bleecker Street (!), even hapless A24 and scrambling Neon, could have gotten CODA to BP on that same ballot. The word of mouth provided such a boost that its momentum topped the charts Parasite-style. 100%.

    FYC
    Best Picture: "Aftersun" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
    Best Director: Charlotte Wellls; Luca Guadagnino
    Best Actress: Frankie Corio; Taylor Russell
    Best Actor: Paul Mescal; Timothee Chalamet
    Best Supporting Actress: Chloe Sevigny
    Best Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
    Best Original Screenplay: Charlotte Wells
    Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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    Will, from Cal
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    Jun 17th, 2011
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    #1204887537

    The Oscars’ internationalization is not working very well. Boring winners, no upsets. We thought they’d be more open to non-English movies, specially after Parasite and Bong Joon Ho’s speech, but they still cannot read subtitles.

    Poor post etiquette, in that I am replying late and copying something I said in another thread, but…

    The thing preventing a foreign language film from winning pre-Roma/Parasite wasn’t the subtitles, it was that Oscars are for good or ill an industry award, and most voters would be loath to give their prize away to someone not known in the industry. And few directors did both international and Hollywood work. It is no coincidence that Crouching Tiger came closest prior – Ang Lee was known in Hollywood. Alfonso Cuaron was known in Hollywood pre-Roma. del Toro was known pre-Pan’s. Bong-joon ho was known in Hollywood pre-Parasite, and that was the difference, not the innate overpowering awesome of the film (though it was the rightful champ). The next time a foreign film wins, it will be by someone who also previously worked in Hollywood. No one here has to believe me, but I feel pretty certain.

    Foreign films whose a creator lacks Hollywood connections can get nominated for director, script, and – post-expanded ballot – best picture, provided the director has some serious built-up cache with arthouse auds. I’m sure Bergman and Fellini would have multiple best Pic noms if the expanded field was available all along, as would Truffaut, Kieslowski, Almodovar, etc. We’ve had Haneke with Amour, Pawlikowski with Cold War, Vinterburg with Another Round in recent years. Hamaguchi and Trier breaking through is a great sign this trend is only increasing.

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    kat_ebbs
    Joined:
    Jun 10th, 2021
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    #1204887598

    Well reasoned. Typically stats lead people to correctly predict what you don’t need stats to predict (gimmes that most people who don’t look at stat one would get right)

    One of my favourite stats is that if you look at the lifetime box office of women at the live action domestic box office, the Oscar nomination rate is currently sitting at 48% for the top 100, which is a fantastic predictive stat.

    The thing is – even if you don’t look at the “not yet nominated” people on that list, 80% of those names are either a) obvious or b) obvious when you stop and consider it for a minute. Emma Watson, Bryce Dallas Howard, Emily Blunt, Zendaya? You could guess those names being on that list pretty easily.

     

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    Predix
    Joined:
    Feb 6th, 2022
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    #1204887631

    I can’t help how much fun I’m having being back around here.

    This obsessive statsgeek, who has 40 pages of spreadsheets that I guess have no nuance in them anywhere, did pretty freaking well and has the receipts.

    Y’all got CODA. That’s good. Feel free to lord it over me, representative of statsgeeks everywhere. And sure, anyone coulda called Best Actor. But what of these other categories?

    Original Screenplay? Some people said Don’t Look Up or Licorice Pizza. My stats analysis led me to Belfast. Guess what worked.

    Actress? A bunch of people switched to Cruz. There were 85 threads, the race was so open. Stats led me to Chastain. Guess what worked.

    Looking at he Crafts thread here, and boy did people have doubts. Song? Encanto had the buzz. I stayed with the stats favorite. Guess what worked. Cinematography? First female winner is such a narrative! I stayed with the stats favorite. Production Design, Score, Documentary, Animated? Got ’em all right. All of ’em.

    Editing? I actually went against my stats and tried for a big bet. Guess what didn’t pay off? Stats win again.

    GoldDerby has a racehorse for a mascot. Like a horserace, how the jockeys feel about the race has no meaning. The goal is to get to the finish line fastest. Here, the goal is to get the most predictions right. You got 3 I didn’t. I got 7 you didn’t. Stats win.

    Maybe I have a lesson to learn from those folks that got 100 this year. But I feel pretty good as it stands about the “nimbleness” that is “eluding” me, and how well it’s helping me do.

    Will’s stats was almost perfect. It quite literally got every single category right apart from BP. From Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Best Original Song, Production Design, etc. even Editing and of course Best Actress. BP was just an anomaly.

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    almanzarlamarcarlile
    Joined:
    Jul 27th, 2020
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    #1204887679

    My big mistake was putting too much weight in the BAFTA nominations despite them happening after oscar voting had finished. It led me to wrongly predict Alana Haim and Leonardo DiCaprio.

    I was also hesitant about CODA winning initially but after PGA I realized the CODA win was inevitable and that TPOTD simply couldn’t win under preferential.

    World Cup:
    RIP 🇨🇦
    🇦🇷 (🇨🇭)

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