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What can we learn from this year’s Oscars?

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    Will, from Cal
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    Jun 17th, 2011
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    #1204889286

    Oh boy, I logged back in after a few hours, and…

    What do you want, a medal? Needing someone to feel pressed or IMpressed by that folderol

    No, thank you, on both counts. I got what I wanted. I had fun and got a good score. You, however, seem insecure. You seem to interpret me deciding to join the forum for a few days share a project that I created that brings me joy and works pretty well with people I thought might enjoy it as some sort of strolling into a cowboy bar with guns blazing, expecting to receive accolades for my incredible intelligence. I guess I forget how many people are intimidated beyond belief by math.

    So yeah, i’ll take the much more rewarding success from (again) bucking the tide vs. following the trends, which ofc anyone could do…without reams of overdone sheetery that merely buttresses several gimme categories.

    The Best Picture prediction you are so proud of WAS what most people were choosing at the end. I congratulate you on being correct on that, but bucking the tide you were not. On the non “gimme categories” you DID buck the tide on, you got them almost all wrong. If you find this rewarding, fine. Sheetery is not a word, and if you are going to invent words like Shakespeare, you should master capitalization and punctuation.

    I’ve reliably done well there, for a long time, and it’s nbd to do so, really

    You have been here since this year, and have yet to score over 65%. I have been here for a decade. If you have done better prior on another site, please direct me there.

    As i’ve mentioned a few times on GD this season, just as a matter of course, my high point is noms day, and sussing things out for that in advance, where it’s more of a challenge. I didn’t need reams (?!) of idkw to correctly go against the grain: call Dowd an overperformer.. said leaderboard fixture Jenkins was done months back… knew Spencer’s chances for BP/BD/screenplay were going nowhere… never bought the Leto hype… called Cruz as no also-ran… I like challenging myself.

    Scored better than you on noms day. Also called all of these things. My version of challenging myself is to score as high as possible by getting as many things correct as possible. I though that is why we were here, on a site with leaderboards and whatnot.

    I’ve got this down pretty cold.. and don’t need to play some Excel card to make a dubious point.

    Man, if you’ve got this down cold, I must comparatively have enough chill to end climate change for good.

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    Will, from Cal
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    #1204889303

    How dlu and licorice pizza didn’t break the stat ? I would say Belfast broke the stat of winning screenplay with just the cc and GG and not winning best picture

    I’m not quite sure what you mean, but when I say my analysis led me correctly to Belfast, I don’t mean that there are one or two magic combinations that I think need to be fulfilled for a film to win a given category. I can’t speak for anyone else here who is pro-stats, but when I do my analysis I truly use a tally dozens upon dozens of awards and notices – every one I can find – each of which gets a value of how often it lines up with the Oscar winner. I also have other points allocated for the strength of any festival run, the career of the nominee, the studio running the campaign, the strength of the film in all other categories, how much momentum the film seems to be gaining, and more. The sum total of all of this is how I make my choice, not some rulebook of “x plus y MUST result in a win.” In the model I ran this year for my own nerdy enjoyment, Belfast came out on top (although Licorice Pizza was leading early on). It’s how I made my choice in every other category too; in previous years I tried to guess where the models would go wrong to try to get more points on GoldDerby, but the my own math always ends up beating me and I regret it, so this year I just decided to go with it almost straight down the line. I missed the strength of CODA, but got everything else correct, so to me it paid off. Hope this makes sense 🙂

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    kbc
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    #1204889306

    I just noticed the cheers and applause on Sian Heder’s Screenplay win and saw that the crafts members gave her a standing ovation (while the actors didn’t) which I’m putting out here to debunk the the myth that crafts voters won’t vote for CODA. They don’t just vote for what movie has crafts. Else Dune would have won Best Picture.

    100%. Plenty of examples of that through the decades. CODA is just the latest one.

    FYC
    Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
    Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
    Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
    Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
    Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
    Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
    Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
    Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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    babypook
    Joined:
    Nov 4th, 2010
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    #1204889308

    Oh boy, I logged back in after a few hours, and…

    Man, if you’ve got this down cold, I must comparatively have enough chill to end climate change for good.

    Lol. Enjoyable exchange.

    Btw, I got two wrong that I could kick myself for since the result in 1 was obvious. But I used my GUT backed by experience 80% over numbers and stats.

    Interested in what you think about that. Got any stats on which way works better?

    The Sunne in Splendour.
    I prefer my roses white

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    Will, from Cal
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    #1204889331

    I got two wrong that I could kick myself for since the result in 1 was obvious. But I used my GUT backed by experience 80% over numbers and stats.

    Interested in what you think about that. Got any stats on which way works better?

    Pook, good sir, I unfortunately have no advice to offer you, and was just about to reply to one of your recent posts to say as much. Your foresight this weekend was beyond incredible, and I must bow down. Huzzah!

    People here seem to think that either brain or gut must be the superior thing to go off of. Apparently by my demonstrating a pure-numbers approach, some folks seem to think I am taking a stance against relying on gut. But my stance is to simply use whatever works to get you the most right. My gut is, and has always been, worth less than the current value of the ruble, so the lesson I’ve learned this year is that I will do my personal best if I ignore it and just go with my models, which I have polished to a nice shiny sheen. If I had listened to the models I woulda still missed some but gotten Hopkins, McDormand, and one or two techs I whiffed by falling for “the narrative.” How many bragging rights would I have had then!

    But your gut appears to work wonders, so best for you to ignore me and stick with that. I recommend the same to anyone with a well-working gut, unlike mine, which perpetually needs a metaphorical dose of whatever that yogurt was the Jamie Lee Curtis used to peddle.

    But if you come for my numbers acting like they don’t work at all, well… A certain person here with a habit of using “100%! [cry-laugh emoji]” in each post has apparently decided to pick a fight with me, unaware that I am the most stubborn person alive, and would get so much enjoyment out of the tomfoolery it practically replenishes my electrolytes. Huzzah!

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    kbc
    Joined:
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    #1204889344

    you’ve got this down cold, I must comparatively have enough chill to end climate change for good

    Sounds as if this as much a misreading of climate change as it was that misreading of the race for BP 🤣. Some people…
    Though at least the stats on climate change warrant spreadsheeting.

    FYC
    Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
    Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
    Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
    Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
    Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
    Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
    Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
    Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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    Will, from Cal
    Joined:
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    #1204889352

    Sounds as if this as much a misreading of climate change as it was that misreading of the race for BP
    Though at least the stats on climate change warrant spreadsheeting.

    I am always ready to reconcile, so I will say on the last point we absolutely agree.

    Do you happen to live in West Virginia? I have some phone numbers for you if so…

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    babypook
    Joined:
    Nov 4th, 2010
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    #1204889354

    Pook, good sir, I unfortunately have no advice to offer you, and was just about to reply to one of your recent posts to say as much. Your foresight this weekend was beyond incredible, and I must bow down. Huzzah!

    People here seem to think that either brain or gut must be the superior thing to go off of. Apparently by my demonstrating a pure-numbers approach, some folks seem to think I am taking a stance against relying on gut. But my stance is to simply use whatever works to get you the most right. My gut is, and has always been, worth less than the current value of the ruble, so the lesson I’ve learned this year is that I will do my personal best if I ignore it and just go with my models, which I have polished to a nice shiny sheen. If I had listened to the models I woulda still missed some but gotten Hopkins, McDormand, and one or two techs I whiffed by falling for “the narrative.” How many bragging rights would I have had then!

    But your gut appears to work wonders, so best for you to ignore me and stick with that. I recommend the same to anyone with a well-working gut, unlike mine, which perpetually needs a metaphorical dose of whatever that yogurt was the Jamie Lee Curtis used to peddle.

    But if you come for my numbers acting like they don’t work at all, well… A certain person here with a habit of using “100%! [cry-laugh emoji]” in each post has apparently decided to pick a fight with me, unaware that I am the most stubborn person alive, and would get so much enjoyment out of the tomfoolery it practically replenishes my electrolytes. Huzzah!

    Lol.You misunderstand me if you think I didn’t look over your methods. Every bit of info helps.
    I think it may come down to our basic nature. Head? Or heart? Anal? Or oral?(kidding,kidding)

    The Sunne in Splendour.
    I prefer my roses white

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    kbc
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    #1204889377

    I am the most stubborn person alive,

    To join my peers invoking Mr. Peele – nope.
    100%.

    FYC
    Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
    Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
    Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
    Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
    Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
    Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
    Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
    Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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    Clement
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    Jan 12th, 2022
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    #1204889549

    Another lesson, Hollywood should fire most of their stylists because when the biggest stars turn up to what could potentially be the biggest night of their careers looking like they are going to IHeart Radio Music awards then some people are not doing their jobs.

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    Babylonian
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    Aug 16th, 2021
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    #1204889775

    Poor Diane Warren

    FYC:

    Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category

    Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song

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    kbc
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    #1204889790

    Poor Diane Warren

    Like many winless double-digit nominees for Ms. Warren it’ll be a matter of the right song clicking in a year of less prominent rivals alongside her in the category. She will strike gold eventually as Randy Newman did after 16 noms.

    Hopefully she will be around to see her victory unlike composer Victor Young who won his only Oscar after 22 noms – and also, sadly, several months after he passed away.

    FYC
    Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
    Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
    Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
    Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
    Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
    Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
    Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
    Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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    Manav
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    Dec 21st, 2019
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    #1204889806

    I was also hesitant about CODA winning initially but after PGA I realized the CODA win was inevitable and that TPOTD simply couldn’t win under preferential.

    Ditto here.

    BAFTA and PGA made me realise that TPOTD was winning awards even under a plurality vote by a whisker, there was no way it was winning under a preferential ballot.

    I think the above is a quote from a GD user. (Unfortunately I’ve forgotten by whom).

    ~Not much active now due to a higher studies course
    ~still love watching films and television shows
    ~Everything Everywhere All At Once in all categories.
    ~Currently watching Abbott Elementary

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    jjjmoss
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    Jun 2nd, 2016
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    #1204891543

    Non-action Best Picture nominees with 8+ imdb, 40%+ of voters gave at least 9/10

    21 Coda 44%***

    20 Father 46%**

    19 Parasite 57%***, 1917 46%, Ford v Ferrari 40%

    18 Green Book 46%***, Bohemian Rhapsody 44%*

    17 Billboards 41%**

    16 Hacksaw Ridge 44%, La La Land 43%**, Lion 41%

    [15 Room* got 39%]

    14 Whiplash 54%*, Grand Budapest 42%

    13 Wolf of Wall Street 46%, Slave 40%***

    12 Django Unchained 53%**

    11 Help 40%*

    10 Toy Story 46%

    09 Basterds 49%*, Up 46%

    Last 5 years, the most audience embraced got at least 2 major wins.

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    Nameizmann
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    Jan 16th, 2020
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    #1204891553

    Non-action Best Picture nominees with 8+ imdb, % of voters who gave at least 9/10 (40+) 21 Coda 44%*** 20 Father 46%** 19 Parasite 57%***, 1917 46%, Ford v Ferrari 40% 18 Green Book 46%***, Bohemian Rhapsody 44%* 17 Billboards 41%** 16 Hacksaw Ridge 44%, La La Land 43%**, Lion 41% [15 Room* got 39%] 14 Whiplash 54%*, Grand Budapest 42% 13 Wolf of Wall Street 46%, Slave 40%*** 12 Django Unchained 53%** 11 Help 40%* 10 Toy Story 46% 09 Basterds 49%*, Up 46%

    What action pictures were there out of curiosity?

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