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What can we learn from this year’s Oscars?

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    kbc
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    #1204884396

    Perhaps we can have a moratorium on “the Academy is changing, it’s not the same as when X, Y, or Z won BP” – the Academy is the Academy, and in several key ways the more it changes, the more it stays the same. The voters fell in love with Parasite, they fell in love with Green Book, they fell in love with CODA – the only pattern to watch is what makes ’em swoon in Ampas land. A dozen noms reflected respect for TPOTD, but three noms ended up encapsulated love for CODA.

    Oh, and The Social Network and Brokeback Mountain would still lose to The King’s Speech and Crash today. And Giant would still lose to Around the World in 80 Days. 😉

    FYC
    Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
    Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
    Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
    Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
    Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
    Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
    Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
    Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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    film123
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    Sep 12th, 2021
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    #1204884410

    Another Parasite is never ever happening again.

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    jjjmoss
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    Jun 2nd, 2016
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    #1204884426

    Another Parasite is never ever happening again.

    Well, let’s see the next time a movie gets an 85/96 split from IMDB and MC. It’s not exactly common…

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    Predix
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    Feb 6th, 2022
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    #1204884428

    That a shitshow will always find a way to be a shitshow whenever possible.

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    federico rubachin
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    #1204884457

    i think something important to learn is that the editing stat and the BAFTA best picture stat were like jokes. Like i said multiple times various movies win picture without editing nom, but in latest years simple as a coincidence movies like brokeback mountain and roma lost best picture for other motives but had in common not having a editing nom. But was only a coincidence

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    kbc
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    #1204884498

    Yes, as noted even before Birdman several films won BP despite the editors’ branch not giving them a nom, including films like Ordinary People, Marty and Hamlet (which beat 12-time nominee, and nom leader, Johnny Belinda for BP) that were smaller scale and not pushing the boundaries of cinema. Precedent was there, even if it last happened in a different era in many of our minds.

    FYC
    Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
    Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
    Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
    Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
    Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
    Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
    Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
    Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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    Carlos
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    Oct 8th, 2011
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    #1204884503

    What a learned in a bad way how this “comedians” think they’re funny by insulting Respected Actors like Will Smith and Kirsten Dunst id punch that amy in the face, never undestood the point of those jokes at all.

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    Will, from Cal
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    #1204884520

    i think something important to learn is that the editing stat and the BAFTA best picture stat were like jokes. Like i said multiple times various movies win picture without editing nom, but in latest years simple as a coincidence movies like brokeback mountain and roma lost best picture for other motives but had in common not having a editing nom. But was only a coincidence

    Okay, yeah, but, like… how many coincidences have to happen in a row for it to no longer be a long string of coincidences but an actual expected result? I’m just honestly asking if you have a number? ‘Cause 39 out of 40 straight times seems like a huge long ass Christmas tree light string of bright shiny coincidences you got there.

    The person winning the slot machine can’t really say that the other people all lost because of coincidence. It’s set up that way and they happen to be the lucky exception that proves the rule.

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    Rynd_Rawikara
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    #1204884528

    What a learned in a bad way how this “comedians” think they’re funny by insulting Respected Actors like Will Smith and Kirsten Dunst id punch that amy in the face, never undestood the point of those jokes at all.

    Wait, what did they do to Dunst? I didn’t watch the live telecast

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    Will, from Cal
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    #1204884550

    The answer is . . . n o t h i n g .

    We learn nothing from this, because there are freaky exceptions to every rule. Things that are 99% not going to happen will definitely happen every one out of a hundred times. But once they happen to you, that doesn’t mean you should incorporate that into your schema of what to expect going forward, because now that this incredibly unlikely thing has happened to you, it becomes even more borderline-impossibly unlikely to happen to you again. That pilot who fell 18,000 ft. and only broke his wrist should really not try that again.

    But by all means, I encourage people learn the lesson that they should throw out the stats entirely and start predicting movies with 3 nominations and a few guild prizes to win every year. That would mean this one year of me getting kicked would result in tons of years to come where I stand atop the prognosticator pile, all because I knew when to not learn a lesson that didn’t need to be learned.

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    kat_ebbs
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    Jun 10th, 2021
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    #1204884557

    International voters impact on the winners is overrated and we should stop caring about secret ballots.

    My biggest take too.

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    jjjmoss
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    #1204884568

    start predicting movies with 3 nominations and a few guild prizes to win every year.

    Okay, next time a movie wins WGA/PGA/SAG, feel free to be confident in it losing.

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    Joe Langer
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    #1204884572

    Chris Rock made a really offensive statement on air about the hair loss of a woman who voluntarily shaved her head after the loss started due to a condition called Alopecia Areata. My late wife had cancer, she knew she’d lose her hair so she shaved it voluntarily as well. I would never tolerate anyone to mock on that because it’s something big. For a lot of women hair is their pride. But when a woman gathers the courage to shave it, it should not be made fun of, even if it’s a joke, on national television. The matter is more than just a joke. It’s how passively comedians get away with really offensive statements and this happens in our country. I’ve seen comedians mocking others nations for harmless reasons. Will was also wrong because nothing justifies slapping and abusing someone on national television. But I totally get what motivated him to do so.

    Member of the Screen Actors Guild. Inducted in 1999.

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    GD
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    Dec 1st, 2016
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    #1204884577

    For every moonlight and parasite we will have a coda and green book type of win

    Moonlight is a bore. La La Land deserved this. People keep saying it 6 years later.

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    roger88
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    #1204884581

    And you pointed DV winning director sooo.

    Well, Villeneuve winning was a more realistic prediction considering:

    a. How great Dune was
    b. TPOTD bombing hard to the US and international audience than even reach out an alternative in a “hallmark movie”

    Campion was lucky Heder or Villeneuve weren’t nominated in director.

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