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February 23, 2017 at 7:41 pm #1202020131
Basically my question is: what win in the tech categories could surprise us like Ex Machina did last year by winning Visual Effects when no one saw it coming?
My three possibilities:
1) Deepwater Horizon winning Visual Effects. I do think The Jungle Book will win, but this movie surprised me by having more support this season than I ever antecipated. The Academy has gone for movies that have a lot of visual effects in water in the past. It also stands out from the rest by being based on a true story.
2) Arrival or Hell or High Water win Film Editing. The race for most people is La La Land vs Hacksaw Ridge (Bafta winner), but those two other films seem to have a decent fanbase and this could be a place to reward one of them. Arrival did win the ACE Eddie, for instance.
3) Florence Foster Jenkins winning Costume Design. No iconic dresses (right?), but it’s the choice for those looking for “most”. I had a feeling this movie would end up winning something for its costumes at some point, but it never did. Maybe it still could?
Share yoursFebruary 23, 2017 at 7:51 pm #1202020146
I was going to predict (and pondering on blogging) Kubo, but I’m going w/the “keep it simple, stupid” method this year. I agree with you that Deepwater Horizon is the likelier upset. I remember that reaction article to the screening during the nomination phase and the branch being blown away by it and Kubo.February 23, 2017 at 7:53 pm #1202020149
Arrival winning both sound categoriesFebruary 24, 2017 at 1:16 am #1202020355
Arrival winning both sound categories
Mixing I doubt, but Editing isn’t totally crazy
I’m generally basing this prediction off the fact that there is a large overlap between members of BAFTA and AMPAS, and since Arrival won there, it could mean Arrival has a good chance.February 24, 2017 at 4:32 am #1202020416
I’m going for several “upsets” in general, not just tech upsets:
-HoHW Original Screenplay
-Deepwater Horizon Visual Effects
-Arrival Production Design
-The White Helmets Documentary Short
-La Femme et le TGV Action Short
-Kubo and the Two Strings Animated Feature
-A Man Called Ove Makeup and Hairstyling
LLL still would get 8 Oscars (Picture, Director, Actress, Editing, Cinematography, Score, Original Song, Sound Mixing)February 24, 2017 at 5:31 am #1202020430
I’d be more than content with all of these.February 24, 2017 at 6:36 am #1202020479
No way in hell the jungle book is losing visual effectsFebruary 24, 2017 at 8:57 am #1202020623
Watch Arrival in Production Design – if the Academy wants to throw it a bone and prevent a shutout, it’s probably here.
I think Arrival is more likely to upset in Sound Editing (won Bafta for Best Sound) or Film Editing (won ACE Eddie) than Production Design (lost ADG to Passengers and Bafta to Fantastic Beasts), but… who knows!February 24, 2017 at 9:33 am #1202020637
I’m sticking hard to Arrival winning editing. It has ACE (I know it didn’t compete against LLL but still), has essential non-linear editing, Editing hasn’t gone to a BP winner since Argo, and Editing often awards less conventional films (Mad Max, Whiplash, TGWTDT).
I also wonder if Passengers could in Production Design. I’m not predicting it but it did get in there without many people predicting it would so there is obviously support and people obviously saw it…February 24, 2017 at 9:35 am #1202020639
I also wonder if Passengers could in Production Design. I’m not predicting it but it did get in there without many people predicting it would so there is obviously support and people obviously saw it…
I have been wondering that too because that movie also got another nomination, and it’s the option for “most” in terms of sets.February 24, 2017 at 9:41 am #1202020645
It should at least be above Hail, Caesar on prediction center. It’s current. And we already saw last year another Holywood stah’s powah pushing Ex Machina to the finish line.February 24, 2017 at 9:49 am #1202020655
It should at least be above Hail, Caesar on prediction center. It’s current. And we already saw last year another Holywood stah’s powah pushing Ex Machina to the finish line.
I agree that it should be above Hail, Caesar, but what pushed Ex Machina over the edge was how surprisingly beloved it was (PGA nod + First Feature DGA win).February 24, 2017 at 9:51 am #1202020658
Passengers wouldn’t shock me at all if it somehow pulled off Production Design. The argument against it is that it’s “not a good movie”, and I’m not sure how valid that argument is. It’s definitely “the most”. “La La” doesn’t have a great production design, it’s winning by default right now. Arrival could sneak in here, but I agree with Gus – it lost at the guild and BAFTA – so I’m not sure it can come from nowhere, but who knows?
There is an editing case to be made for Arrival, Hacksaw and Hell or High Water. They seem to love Hell or High Water – will it go home with nothing? I’m going with an upset for Arrival right now, I just hope it’s not to “confusing” for Academy voters.
I think there’s also a possibility Hacksaw could take both sound awards and steal mixing from La La Land. I get there is music, but I can’t get over the first scene of that film when you can’t even understand the singers at all. It won the mixing award from the guild though, so go figure. Maybe I don’t know what I’m talking about.
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