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What Is The Biggest Oscar Upset This Century And Why?

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What Is The Biggest Oscar Upset This Century And Why?
1. Marcia Gay Harden winning Best Supporting Actress
6 votes (8.33%)
2. Steven Soderbergh winning Best Director
0 votes (0.00%)
3. Adrien Brody winning Best Actor
7 votes (9.72%)
4. Roman Polanski winning Best Director
2 votes (2.78%)
5. Crash winning Best Picture
21 votes (29.17%)
6. The Lives Of Others winning Best Foreign Language Film
0 votes (0.00%)
7. Precious winning Best Adapted Screenplay
2 votes (2.78%)
8. Mark Rylance winning Best Supporting Actor
0 votes (0.00%)
9. Moonlight winning Best Picture
13 votes (18.06%)
10. Olivia Colman winning Best Actress
21 votes (29.17%)
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    Monty
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    #1203334812

    I mean, Colman has GG + BAFTA going into the Oscar. It is the same combo in which Nicole Kidman, Marion Cotillard and Meryl Streep upset the SAG champ. It is still surprising but not surprise of the century.

    I would go for Ex Machina winning visual effects, given the fact that Mad Max and Star War are in the category.

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    James Breheney
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    #1203334871

    Colman winning shouldn’t be anywhere near the conversation for upset of the century so far. It was shocking at the time and I remember being gobsmacked but in hindsight the precursors were split and Colman was in the joint most-nominated picture of the night whereas Close was in a small under-seen movie. We all fell for the overdue narrative and got bit in the ass for it.

    For me Moonlight winning is a much bigger upset because even in hindsight it’s hard to believe. La La Land seemed like a Titanic-esque front-runner with the same number of nominations to boot. La La Land swept the Globes, won PGA, DGA, BAFTA and was a huge box office hit whereas Moonlight only won GG Drama + WGA and was a tiny movie in comparison. Glad it won though. One of the best Oscar moments I’ve seen live.

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    Eddy Q
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    #1203334882

    I would go for Ex Machina winning visual effects, given the fact that Mad Max and Star War are in the category.

    Yes, statistically that is the biggest upset. It won with the fewest nominations of the visual effects nominees which is the opposite of what usually happens, and it was completely blanked by the Visual Effects Society awards which I believe is unprecedented for a visual effects Oscar-winner.

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    jsn
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    #1203347382

    Feels like this thread needs a bump lol.

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    Joe Burns
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    #1203347480

    I still think Colman’s win was a pretty big shock by today’s standards and thats coming from someone who knew she had a shot at winning when others dismissed her chances.Close was a very strong front runner with wins at the Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, and a strong campaign. Her losing was a perfect storm of factors where you really have to look at the whole trajectory of the race to see why she lost unlike with other upsets where you can easily see why the frontrunner lost in hindsight(i.e. Lauren Bacall, Kate Hudson).

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    Joe Burns
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    #1203347482

    Feels like this thread needs a bump lol.

    And yeah, you’re right. If I could, I’d drop Mark Rylance and put Bong Joon Ho’s directing win on here instead.

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    linecelts
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    #1203347615

    Moonlight was an upset, A HAPPY AND SATISFYING upset. I kept saying that year that Moonlight could win and people didn’t believe me.

    I believe I voted for Crash winning Best Picture

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    RobertPius
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    #1203348220

    I still think Colman’s win was a pretty big shock by today’s standards and thats coming from someone who knew she had a shot at winning when others dismissed her chances.Close was a very strong front runner with wins at the Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, and a strong campaign. Her losing was a perfect storm of factors where you really have to look at the whole trajectory of the race to see why she lost unlike with other upsets where you can easily see why the frontrunner lost in hindsight(i.e. Lauren Bacall, Kate Hudson).

    I still don’t understand how Close lost.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203348224

    Bong-Joon Ho winning Director is for sure up there, as is Moonlight beating La La Land. But I still think the biggest is one no one’s mentioning: Ex Machina winning Visual Effects. It won zero precursors and had no momentum, and it was probably last place in the odds for that race: it was a complete dark horse. Plus it was going against a massive film (Fury Road) that had 6 other Oscar’s plus Picture and Director noms, and there’s no way Fury Road vote-split with Revenant (which was never a contender) or Force Awakens (which just isn’t the type of film they like to award), so it got straight up beat. To this day there is still zero precident for what Ex Machina did.

    I still remember how surprised both I and the people who accepted the award were: they didn’t even have a speech prepared. It was hilarious!

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    Babygirl
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    #1203348277

    I still don’t understand how Close lost.

    Looking back at it now, it’s pretty explainable. The Academy had 10 reasons to watch The Favourite and only 1 for The Wife, Colman had a huge critic push that year, The Favourite was top 5 for BP and we reeeeeeeeally underestimated how strong the GG + BAFTA combo is.

    In my opinion, Close really needs a strong film (perhaps a BP contender) to pull off a win next time.

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    ArtIsntEasy
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    #1203348519

    I do think Bong Joon-ho taking Director is quite the upset…probably the biggest upset since Polanski won that category in 2003.

    MOONLIGHT winning Picture only seems plausible in hindsight when looking at the LA LA LAND backlash plus thinking about the concept of the preferential ballot and how it also helped SPOTLIGHT the year prior. However, it just didn’t seem like it would happen at the time…although I do wonder how crazy it would’ve felt if they actually announced MOONLIGHT from the beginning as opposed to the switch that occurred.

    “The art of making art is putting it together...”

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203348615

    Though it wasn’t surprising, Bong Joon Ho winning Director was a huge upset as he didn’t win any single precursor for directing.

    He tied with Sam Mendes for Critics’ Choice.

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    NevadaR
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    #1203348649

    He tied with Sam Mendes for Critics’ Choice.

    The only precursor that got it right…well, half right. Thank God for ties.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203348822

    Bong-Joon Ho winning Director is for sure up there, as is Moonlight beating La La Land. But I still think the biggest is one no one’s mentioning: Ex Machina winning Visual Effects. It won zero precursors and had no momentum, and it was probably last place in the odds for that race: it was a complete dark horse. Plus it was going against a massive film (Fury Road) that had 6 other Oscar’s plus Picture and Director noms, and there’s no way Fury Road vote-split with Revenant (which was never a contender) or Force Awakens (which just isn’t the type of film they like to award), so it got straight up beat. To this day there is still zero precident for what Ex Machina did. I still remember how surprised both I and the people who accepted the award were: they didn’t even have a speech prepared. It was hilarious!

    I still remember that. I honestly think if the Oscars were to redo that specific category for 2015, they’d give it to Mad Max, for the logic that you gave and for the fact that they typically go with the most Best Picture-friendly movie. Also, I think that if Arrival was nominated for Visual Effects, it would’ve won over The Jungle Book.

    • This reply was modified 4 months, 3 weeks ago by Gabe Guarin.
    • This reply was modified 4 months, 3 weeks ago by Gabe Guarin.
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    Turd Ferguson
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    #1203348825

    I feel like Bong Joon Ho should be added to this. Mendes swept every precursor. But Ex Machina is the true winner here.

    Big fan of Better Call Saul, Sex Education, Barry, BoJack Horseman, and, especially, Survivor

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