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What is your boldest Best Picture prediction?

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  • Cordelia
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    #1203170400

    So, we are deep enough into the Oscars precursor season that some frontrunners have settled down. There are now 13 films above 100/1 Best Picture odds in the Predictions. They are (in order of odds offered by the site)

    • The Irishman
    • Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
    • Marriage Story
    • Parasite
    • Jojo Rabbit
    • 1917
    • Little Women
    • Joker
    • Ford V Ferrari
    • A Beautiful Day In The Neighbourhood
    • The Farewell
    • Bombshell
    • The Two Popes

    So, I ask you the question – which film that ISN’T in this list do you think might get nominated for Best Picture? Do you see any late breakers or surprise narratives or awards magnets arising that are not accounted for here? Do tell, I love people who are willing to take a little risk. And if you call it early, that’s more bragging rights.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Weathering With You, Parasite, The Lighthouse
    Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse
    Best Animated Feature: Weathering With You, Promare
    Best International Film: Weathering With You, Parasite

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    MMartin
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    #1203170416

    I think Queen & Slim could easily breakthrough if it gets great reviews. We still have to wait in see what the Metacritic and RT scores are.

    Why I think it could breakthrough:

    – Politically relevant subject matter
    – Looks like the type of film that could be nominated in a lot of categories if great: actor, actress, cinematography, screenplay.
    – The Oscars aren’t looking very diverse this year, and the majority of the contenders are incredibly white films (The Irishman, Once Upon, 1917, Bombshell, Little Women, Ford v Ferrari). Parasite and The Farewell do have chance at bringing some diversity to the lineup, and I think Queen & Slim has a chance as well, and it has a female director behind it
    – The trailer does look great, gorgeous cinematography, performances look strong

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    Mr. Tintin
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    #1203170456

    Everyone will say that Avengers: Endgame is a bold prediction, but I think my riskiest gamble is Uncut Gems. That movie has so much going for it- growing respect for the Safdie Brothers, critical acclaim, a bold performance from Adam Sandler, hearkening to Scorsese, etc.

    Oscars 2020: I stan Joaquin Phoenix, Willem Dafoe, Alan Silvestri, and Dean Deblois.

    Emmys 2020: I stan Logan Lerman, Olivia Colman, and David Harbour.

    Tom Hanks and Amy Adams stan in general.

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    Dennis El Mar
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    #1203170480

    Tbh I know I’m delusional and blind stanning (ignore my profile picture) but I think The Lighthouse could sneak in

    FYC: Mary Kay Place in Diane

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    MMartin
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    #1203170482

    but I think my riskiest gamble is Uncut Gems

    Uncut Gems feels like a film that should be big, considering its RT and Metacritic scores, and it being released by A24.

    For some reason it doesn’t seem to be catching on with awards buzz. Maybe it is because A24 seems to be putting all their push behind The Farewell and The Lighthouse. Maybe Adam Sandler has so much built up bad will. Maybe just the simple fact that it is a black comedy is hurting it. In reality it is probably a combination of those things, with the fact that there are a lot more Oscar friendly projects that are getting good reviews, like Little Women and Bombshell.

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    babypook
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    #1203170485

    Tbh I know I’m delusional but I think The Lighthouse could sneak in

    I’m glad you said it before I did. I took a pass on this one.

    Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?
    Philip K Dick Blade Runner

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    Dennis El Mar
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    #1203170487

    I’m glad you said it before I did. I took a pass on this one.

    It’s just a gut feeling, not really supported by any evidence but I think the word-of-mouth narrative around it is a lot stronger than some of A24’s earlier vehicles that were acclaimed but failed to garner awards. It comes off as a stronger passion pick than something like Eighth Grade or The Florida Project, hopefully there are a few hundred bougie film buffs in the Academy who will rank it their pick for best of the year?

    FYC: Mary Kay Place in Diane

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    Babygirl
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    #1203170491

    Ngl although I’m not predicting it, I wouldn’t be surprised if Avengers: Endgame somehow sneaked in. But then again genre bias exists so.

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    babypook
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    #1203170501

    It’s just a gut feeling, not really supported by any evidence but I think the word-of-mouth narrative around it is a lot stronger than some of A24’s earlier vehicles that were acclaimed but failed to garner awards. It comes off as a stronger passion pick than something like Eighth Grade or The Florida Project, hopefully there are a few hundred bougie film buffs in the Academy who will rank it their pick for best of the year?

    My heart is still with Brad, but all the members have to do is decide it’s Dafoe s year. Then, Bingo!

    ETA sorry Dennis I didn’t answer your question. BP nada. Nomination, probable.

    • This reply was modified 1 week, 6 days ago by  teri.
    • This reply was modified 1 week, 6 days ago by  teri.

    Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?
    Philip K Dick Blade Runner

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    EsOS
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    #1203170555

    Uncut Gems feels like a film that should be big, considering its RT and Metacritic scores, and it being released by A24. For some reason it doesn’t seem to be catching on with awards buzz. Maybe it is because A24 seems to be putting all their push behind The Farewell and The Lighthouse. Maybe Adam Sandler has so much built up bad will. Maybe just the simple fact that it is a black comedy is hurting it. In reality it is probably a combination of those things, with the fact that there are a lot more Oscar friendly projects that are getting good reviews, like Little Women and Bombshell.

    Im not predicting Uncut Gems simply because the Academy will never embrace the Safdie brothers (also because I hate Adam Sandler but that’s a whole other story).

    FYC: Octavia Spencer (Luce) - Best Supporting Actress

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    Dennis El Mar
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    #1203170562

    Im not predicting Uncut Gems simply because the Academy will never embrace the Safdie brothers (also because I hate Adam Sandler but that’s a whole other story).

    Oh no I never meant it was winning BP, I’m more likely to win the lottery and be struck by lightning on the same day. But I honestly can see it sneaking into 9th-10th place for a nomination, especially if a few other films start to falter. Every once in a while, blocks of the Academy prove their taste in certain unexpected choices over more pedestrian picks that they’re supposed to like.. Phantom Thread and Amour come to mind. Steak eaters don’t always rule, and maybe it’s bias but I can see ~200 film buffs checking it off for a nomination as opposed to the umpteenth bland crowdpleaser people say has a chance.

    FYC: Mary Kay Place in Diane

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    #1203170591

    Hustlers and Queen & Slim both at 100/1 odds at 9th & 10th, respectively.

    Queen & Slim for the reasons above mentioned by MMartin. (A little blind stanning for Melina).

    Hustlers because right now I have it winning SAG, being nominated at PGA (it’s the exact film producers love, good concept-low budget-high return) and think it will be play well with the younger members of AMPAS, such as Paul Walter Hauser whose already be his love public.

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    Cordelia
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    #1203170613

    Tbh I know I’m delusional and blind stanning (ignore my profile picture) but I think The Lighthouse could sneak in

    That’s my #10, but bear in mind the Academy hasn’t had 10 nominees in ages. I think there is a slim margin in which it could happen*. Slimmer than an atom, but it isn’t impossible.

    *The best case scenario that this happens is as such – Willem Dafoe Supporting Actor buzz propels the film to further conversations, cinematography buzz gets it in the conversation for both Actors and Tech to some extent, and passion votes get it in. Again, this is near-impossible, but there is a way.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Weathering With You, Parasite, The Lighthouse
    Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse
    Best Animated Feature: Weathering With You, Promare
    Best International Film: Weathering With You, Parasite

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1203170701

    Downton Abbey is mine. I think it’s appeal to older academy members can give it the boost it needs to make it into the BP lineup. It’s also way better than the critics said it was – it’s a terrific movie and deserves to be nominated!

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    ginnala
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    #1203170709

    Hustlers lol it’s critically acclaimed, buzzy and JLo will also be nominated. And it’s getting a SAG nom for best ensemble aswell.

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