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I have The Lighthouse at a placeholder #10, which I suppose means I’m not predicting it as 10 nominees is mathematically extremely unlikely under the current system. Still, it has potential crossover appeal for younger/international members and some older Academy types who will appreciate its craft and old-school tech credentials.
ReplyCopy URLSo, I ask you the question – which film that ISN’T in this list do you think might get nominated for Best Picture?
I have Waves, Us, and Downton Abbey in my predictions for now.
I also think anyone of Booksmart, Rocketman, Dolemite is My Name, Hustlers, Just Mercy, Queen & Slim, The Lion King, Dark Waters can end up being a surprising contender for a nomination.
I think the win is between Parasite and one of the Netflix movies.
ReplyCopy URLThe Lion King
How the hell do you think that? It has a 52% on Rotten Tomatoes, is a summer release, and is basically a shot by shot remake of the original except with really bland and boring musical numbers. I don’t think it making a lot of money makes it a contender. That is like saying Minions or a Transformers film is a contender because it makes a billion. And even Minions was a better film than The Lion King remake.
And it is not the film Disney is going to be giving a push to, those are Endgame, Skywalker, and Frozen 2.
ReplyCopy URLHow the hell do you think that? It has a 52% on Rotten Tomatoes, is a summer release, and is basically a shot by shot remake of the original except with really bland and boring musical numbers. I don’t think it making a lot of money makes it a contender. That is like saying Minions or a Transformers film is a contender because it makes a billion. And even Minions was a better film than The Lion King remake. And it is not the film Disney is going to be giving a push to, those are Endgame, Skywalker, and Frozen 2.
Well I haven’t seen the movie yet so I can’t comment on its quality, I had it as a longshot due to nostalgia factor.
ReplyCopy URLNot sure why people think Hustlers. That movie was genuinely horrible imo and I think critics were soft on it out of the festivals. It’s expectations were SO low and it was different from regular festival fare which is why I think it resonated with them. Regular audiences hate that movie though and I think the Academy is going to react the same way. On its best day I think it’ll enjoy a similar awards tragectory as Crazy Rich Asians as the big commercial movie the industry likes, but I would assume it performs worse because of competition this year, CRA had more awards/guild friendly elements in it, and CRA was a much more uplifting story. I don’t think Hustlers will come close.
ReplyCopy URLMy personal Top 5 of 2019 so far:
1) Parasite 2) The Farewell 3) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 4) The Irishman 5) Knives OutNot sure why people think Hustlers. That movie was genuinely horrible imo and I think critics were soft on it out of the festivals. It’s expectations were SO low and it was different from regular festival fare which is why I think it resonated with them. Regular audiences hate that movie though and I think the Academy is going to react the same way. On its best day I think it’ll enjoy a similar awards tragectory as Crazy Rich Asians as the big commercial movie the industry likes, but I would assume it performs worse because of competition this year, CRA had more awards/guild friendly elements in it, and CRA was a much more uplifting story. I don’t think Hustlers will come close.
What makes you think regular audiences hated Hustlers despite it making $104 million, one of the best totals for a non-franchise film all year?
ReplyCopy URLNothing bold to be honest, 10 spots is a lot. The one with the weakest odds I have is “The Two Popes“, followed by “Bombshell“.
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I am being bolder on snubs though. I´m predicting “Little Women“ and “A Beautiful Day in The Neighborhood“ to miss. “Joker“ somehow is in the top 8 but I don´t really see it as a contender in Best Picture.
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