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What Oscar snubs and surprises do you wish you had called?

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203352203

    The title explains itself: in all your years predicting the Oscars, are there any snubs, surprise nominations and surprise wins you wish you had called? I have a couple from this year:

    1. Not predicting Jonathan Pryce’s nomination

    2. Not predicting J Lo’s snub

    3. Not predicting Jojo Rabbit’s Costume Design nomination

    4. Not predicting 1917’s Makeup nomination

    5. Predicting Joker to win Makeup over Bombshell

    And the one I feel incredibly stupid for to this day: not predicting Hacksaw Ridge to win Film Editing. That was obvious in retrospect. Also I regret predicting Rachel Weisz to win over Regina King last year.

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    nkb325
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    #1203352225

    I wish I’d called Bong’s director win. I even predicted it for Best Picture, but with all the splits in recent years I figured they couldn’t resist 1917

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    I wish I’d called Bong’s director win. I even predicted it for Best Picture, but with all the splits in recent years I figured they couldn’t resist 1917

    To be fair very few predicted that. But the fact that Sam Mendes couldn’t even win Director leads me to think 1917 wasn’t even 2nd place for Best Picture.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1203352280

    Yeah, I’m pissed that I didn’t follow my gut instinct about Bong. Thought that precursors sealed the Mendes deal. I called Parasite win cause splits are now a norm and 1917 had too many things against it, most notably no acting noms (Parasite’s SAG Ensemble win compensated), no editing and it was going to lose Original to Parasite and winning script is now the ticket to winning Picture. So that was a good call but damn you precursors especially DGA. Coudln’t at least one go for Bong to signal the possibility?

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    Tooner
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    #1203352285

    Wish I knew about Jlo

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    Human Bartender
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    #1203352293

    It’s kind of annoying to me how I didn’t call Lopez’s snub. I was very hesitant to predict her throughout the entire season and only relented when she got in at SAG. Still, I only put her in 5th and was seriously considering swapping her out for Scarlett.

    Let’s Go Bucks

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203352295

    Yeah, I’m pissed that I didn’t follow my gut instinct about Bong. Thought that precursors sealed the Mendes deal. I called Parasite win cause splits are now a norm and 1917 had too many things against it, most notably no acting noms (Parasite’s SAG Ensemble win compensated), no editing and it was going to lose Original to Parasite and winning script is now the ticket to winning Picture. So that was a good call but damn you precursors especially DGA. Coudln’t at least one go for Bong to signal the possibility?

    He did win Critics’ Choice, but that was a tie with Mendes, so we wrote that off.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    It’s kind of annoying to me how I didn’t call Lopez’s snub. I was very hesitant to predict her throughout the entire season and only relented when she got in at SAG. Still, I only put her in 5th and was seriously considering swapping her out for Scarlett.

    I had her because everyone else had her, but I never considered her a serious threat to win like some did. I thought it was Laura Dern’s to lose ever since she was declared the frontrunner. I even predicted she’d win the Golden Globe over J Lo unlike most other people. But I think she was snubbed for the same reason Sylvester Stallone lost to Mark Rylance and Adam Sandler was snubbed.

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    loudtoilet
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    Yeah even CC win couldn’t have bene just his. 🙁

    I knew JLo was a toast when BAFTA snubbed her. Anniston 2.0 if there was ever one. It was obvious Pugh would get in. It’s Bates that I didn’t call. I thought someone from Parasite would sneak in a la Roma actresses.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    Yeah even CC win couldn’t have bene just his. 🙁 I knew JLo was a toast when BAFTA snubbed her. Anniston 2.0 if there was ever one. It was obvious Pugh would get in. It’s Bates that I didn’t call. I thought someone from Parasite would sneak in a la Roma actresses.

    Who did you have in your top 5 for Supporting Actress?

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    loudtoilet
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    #1203352345

    Who did you have in your top 5 for Supporting Actress?

    Dern (I never thought for a second anyone could beat her so all the switching to Johansson amused me)

    Johansson

    Robbie

    Pugh

    NGNG Parasite

    That was my predix before BAFTA where I expected Pugh to show up (and make AMPAS line up) and Jlo miss and finish her run.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203352423

    I personally regret not predicting Bohemian Rhapsody for Film Editing. I mean it had won the ACE Drama award.

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    wilfredpickles
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    Funnily enough, I topped my workplace Oscar pool while missing Bong in Director but some others who don’t follow the season closely actually predicted him (while not even necessarily having Parasite in Picture!)

    Mendes basically just became the Russell Crowe of the Director category and I doubt we’ll see anything like it again for a while, but I can’t help but wonder if I would’ve gotten Bong right if I hadn’t followed the stats so closely.

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    Wanda
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    All of them?

    Last.fm: https://www.last.fm/es/user/Into_You
    https://letterboxd.com/cherry123/

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    loudtoilet
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    Funnily enough, I topped my workplace Oscar pool while missing Bong in Director but some others who don’t follow the season closely actually predicted him (while not even necessarily having Parasite in Picture!) Mendes basically just became the Russell Crowe of the Director category and I doubt we’ll see anything like it again for a while, but I can’t help but wonder if I would’ve gotten Bong right if I hadn’t followed the stats so closely.

    You would. I know I screwed up because of stats. Mendes was sweeping and there was no controversy or any other reason for him to miss. He is respected, well-liked, made sweet speeches. Nothing to hint at the upcoming snub. However, I did notice that people just loved Bong (all those slefies with him anywhere he went) and that Parasite was much more talked about than 1917. Every time 1917 won, the talk about Parasite intensified. So signs were there that Bong could be a very close second and apaprently was. Since Guilds, BAFTA, etc don’t overlap completely with AMPAS, there was room for surprise and it happened.

    I don’t think this will become a norm but it’s a signal that no one is safe until their name is called (and as La La Land learned the hard way, not even then).

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