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WHAT 'TEALEAVES' ARE YOU USING TO PREDICT BEST PICTURE RIGHT NOW?

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    John Smisek
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    I think the Oscar race is whittled down to 2 films, and we still need DGA and the Best Editing nominations to verify!

    LADY BIRD & THREE BILLBOARDS

    1) both films got nominated for Best Screenplay at the GG’s (the last 12 Oscar winners were nominated)

    2) both got the SAG Ensemble nomination (every Best Picture winner for the last 21 years has got this)

    3) both received GG nominations for Best Picture (the last movie to win the Oscar while being snubbed here was CRASH in 2005).

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    TheRedBoy
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    I agree with Lady Bird vs Three Billboards, with Get Out (and The Post?) as potential spoiler.

    This is exciting. Either Lady Bird or Three Billboards would be our first BP winner since Terms of Endearment to have a female lead without a male co-lead. About time!

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    CanadianFan
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    LOL @ Teridax still trying to make Get Out happen.

    Lady Bird was snubbed in director at the GG, so advantage Three Billboards (last film to win BP with a GG snub was Crash).

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    Paul Hardister
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    I also think it is important to look at the Spirit Award nominations. Lady Bird and Get Out got Best Picture nominations there. 5 out of the past 6 Spirit winners went on to take the Oscar.

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    CanadianFan
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    I also think it is important to look at the Spirit Award nominations. Lady Bird and Get Out got Best Picture nominations there. 5 out of the past 6 Spirit winners went on to take the Oscar.

    Ah, yes, we can cherry-pick whatever stats we want to make our film seem in front.

    Once 3B wins GG, SAG, and BAFTA? It’s over.

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    Paul Hardister
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    #1202439718

    SAG, PGA, DGA are the most important three tealeaves.

    The Globes have not been too reliable lately. Birdman lost at the Globes. Spotlight went O for 3. Yes, Moonlight won but La La broke the record for Globe wins.

    It’s important to be nominated for Globes to be perceived as an award worthy film but a win isn’t necessary. Get Out, Lady Bird, and Three Billboards have the Globe nominations and the SAG nominations.

    I think it’s a three way race like it’s been lately: La La vs Moonlight vs Manchester; Spotlight vs Revenant vs Big Short; etc.

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    Sagand
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    People seem to be much more confident in SAG ensemble stat compared to the Globe Director stat despite over the same time period having the same record at 21/22.

    Lady Bird and Get Out have no real reason to have missed Globe Director. Shape of Water has no reason to have missed ensemble.

    Three Billboards is the front runner and barring any huge misses (PGA & DGA) will remain until the PGA winner is announced. Of the others I think Dunkirk and The Post have better reasons for missing. I still think Dunkirk is winning Bafta and is front runner for Director.

    In the end the preferential ballot is only going to help you if have enough number one votes to stay in to near the end. If the top three are 3B, Dunkirk and The Post they all have problems but Three Billboards the least.

    1. Three Billboards
    2. Dunkirk
    3. The Post
    4. Lady Bird
    5. Get Out
    6. Shape of Water

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    CanadianFan
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    People seem to be much more confident in SAG ensemble stat compared to the Globe Director stat despite over the same time period having the same record at 21/22.

    Lady Bird and Get Out have no real reason to have missed Globe Director. Shape of Water has no reason to have missed ensemble.

    Three Billboards is the front runner and barring any huge misses (PGA & DGA) will remain until the PGA winner is announced. Of the others I think Dunkirk and The Post have better reasons for missing. I still think Dunkirk is winning Bafta and is front runner for Director.

    In the end the preferential ballot is only going to help you if have enough number one votes to stay in to near the end. If the top three are 3B, Dunkirk and The Post they all have problems but Three Billboards the least.

    1. Three Billboards
    2. Dunkirk
    3. The Post
    4. Lady Bird
    5. Get Out
    6. Shape of Water

    And there’s only one film that passes both of those tests.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1202439728

    I could live with Lady Bird winning Best Picture and be happy about it. I only gave it a B+, which meant that I thought it was generally excellent but not superb. But as others have said, it’s less divisive and the films I love the most are challenging rather than reinforcing. Superb movies don’t stand a chance these days! (;

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    CanadianFan
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    I’m still waiting on actual evidence that 3B is polarizing. It won the TIFF audience award, went on to win more audience awards than any other film this year, was nominated for more BP awards than any other film this year in the critics phase (despite not winning), got more noms than anyone else was predicting at the GG, and has a leading SAG total.

    But, sure, some low-tier bloggers don’t understand satire, and draft a tweet about how it’s problematic, so it can’t possibly win BP.

    Not to mention how favorable the race is for 3B moving forward:

    Clearly SAG loves the film as it got two supporting nods (which I was predicting). Get Out did not get a supporting actress in, so it’s probably out. Lady Bird is probably 2nd.

    BAFTA loves McDonagh (awarded him for screenplay for In Bruges). Also, Get Out will probably not do very well there due to, well, presumed racism or something, as Barry Jenkins couldn’t even get nominated there. Jordan Peele doesn’t stand a chance at a directing nod there.

    I also think it’s winning the Globe for drama as GG voters know that it is the strongest drama film still in the hunt for BP.

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    Paul Hardister
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    GG Director stat is certainly impressive in that Braveheart won Best Director and nothing else at the Globes. The film goes on to win Best Picture (despite the SAG ensemble snub).

    The only reason the GG Director tealeaf feels off to me this year is because they nominated Ridley Scott. Maybe All the Money in the World is that good. But I think they felt compelled to nominate it because they got a private screening of a rough cut. It’s like they wanted to brag that they saw it first. It was too good of a story to pass up for journalists, PR for the show, to nominate the movie because of the whole Kevin Spacey controversy. I think there should be a rule that you can’t nominate a film off a rough cut. A lot can change good or bad before picture lock.

    I’m curious who would have gotten nominated in Ridley’s place.

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    JackO
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    #1202439740

    REVIEWS

    With a preferential ballot a film needs to not be divisive. Lady Bird has 1 negative review and it is a B- from a troll.

    SAG ENSEMBLE

    Lady Bird hit it

    WRITING

    Lady Bird got nominated for Globe screenplay

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