February 17, 2016 at 3:21 am #217095
Very often we have a surprise winner at the Oscars no one saw comming. Who can be this year?February 17, 2016 at 3:35 am #217097
I was thinking long and hard on this. Almost every year there is a winner no one saw coming. Sometimes it is in the big 8, most times it at the crafts.
OK so I will start with Best Picture. We have a 3-way race. The Revenant vs. Spotlight vs. The Big Short. If any of those films win, it will not be a surprise. So I have a theory. To win BP you need a lot of #2 and 3 votes. It is not out of the question for Mad Max to got most of those votes. It might not get many #1, but it has the potential to be on most of the lists top spots. If that happens, Mad Max can make the shock of the Oscar and in it’s history. That of course is like 5% chance of happening.
In directing, Innarritu is the front-runner, but if Miller wins still it will not be a surprise because a lot of people will be expecting (and hoping) for it. But what if Adam McKay wins? Then it will be a major shock. MAJOR.
In Lead Actor I just don’t see it happening. Just don’t. Same with Lead.
But Supporting Actor? Eddie Murphy was lock for the Oscar back in 2007, but lost. I think we might see a shocking winner here. Someone who is not Stallone or Rylance. But who? Is it Hardy? IDK.
In the Tech/crafts we can always look for a shocker. Cinematography is Lubezki’s, but some still believe Seale can take it. Imagine of they read the name Roger Deakins. It will be madness.
Editing? Mad Max vs. The Big Short? What if the Revenant or Spotlight wins? If that happens I will be expecting that movie to win the Best Picture later the night.
Sound? Yeah it is Mad Max vs. The Revenant. And theb BOOM Star Wars or The Martian wins.
What do you think?February 17, 2016 at 3:37 am #217098
Tom Hardy winning over Sly Stallone. It can happen. The guy is in the two most nominated films of the year, Mad Max and The Revenant, and he can easily be swept along if both films win big even if he’s only nominated for one of them. I know Sly Stallone has the narrative of going back to the character that made him a star and all. But if you ask last year’s comeback kid, Michael Keaton, he’ll probably tell you it doesn’t always work out. Also, similar deal with Mickey Rourke, who was the comeback kid of the year, but to no avail.February 17, 2016 at 3:47 am #217099
Hopefully Jennifer Jason Leigh or Kate Winslet will take down the category fraud nominees.February 17, 2016 at 4:47 am #217100
No one would possibly beat Dicaprio and Stallone. I can see Ronan upseting Larson and Winslet upseting Vikander although the chance is not big. For Best Picture, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Spotlight win. Someone can upset Lubezki as he already won twice in last 2 yearsFebruary 17, 2016 at 6:22 am #217101
At this point, I dont see any big shocks.
Except for Chris Rock and his monologue and hosting duties. My fingers are crossed, that he doesnt hold anything back, or tries really hard to be PC.February 17, 2016 at 6:28 am #217102
Leo losing to Eddie…
Straight Outta Compton Winning best screenplay
Jada & Will actually showing up to present best pictureFebruary 17, 2016 at 6:39 am #217103
Leo losing for Eddie
Brie losing for Cate
The Big Short losing for Carol in Best Adapted Screenplay
February 17, 2016 at 7:15 am #217104
The Weeknd winning Best Song. Everyone is predicting Gaga.February 17, 2016 at 7:20 am #217105
These are the ones that make sense to me
THE BIG SHORT BP
The others seem much harder to make a case for at this point. Leo reached a tipping point with BAFTA as did Larson. Stallone is the big comeback kid story they adore. Inarritu has a lot already. The Big Short is timely but it could still get into a tangle with Spotlight and leave an opening for the elephant in the room. I just think a lot of AMPAS won’t take MM all that seriously.February 17, 2016 at 7:23 am #217106
I just know that song from Spectre is winning.February 17, 2016 at 7:30 am #217107
People act as if Actress is a race. It isn’t. It’s a done deal. The Academy loved Room. It got into directing. Brie Larson has a precursors’ trajectory similar to Natalie Portman. And she won all the biggies. She won more awards than Leo DiCaprio and she’s becoming quite popular to the general public as well. Even the Brits gave her the win instead of going with Saoirse Ronan. I believe that Brie will win in a landslide, with Ronan and Charlotte getting a lot of votes. I doubt Blanchett and Lawrence will get lots of votes at all.
Actor is done.
Supporting Actor seems done, even though my fingers are crossed for Rylance to upset.
Supporting Actress is trickier, but I believe that between Ex Machina and The Danish Girl, Alicia will win. I wish Rooney had a shot for what is the best performance by an acress of the year.
Directing. I don’t think it’s a lock, but Innaritu will probably win. Unfortunate as it is.
But I’m predicting Spotlight for picture. Call me crazy. It’s a hunch.
And I won’t give up on my Youth song prediction.February 17, 2016 at 7:36 am #217108
After reading these comments; probably me dying of boredom.
I hope some of you are right, and we’ll see some surprises in little categories at least.February 17, 2016 at 7:51 am #217110
I dont think there is gonna be any shock in TOP8. Stallone has it. Just look at EW poll. they love some Sly. and Vikander is the Nyongo/Lawrence hot newcomer.
I think Lubezki can lose because he won 2 in a row. So maybe they will give finally oscar to Deakins…but again, cinematography in TR was just to good, Chivo should winFebruary 17, 2016 at 7:51 am #217109
Not sure it’d really be a monumental surprise, but I’m going with “The Look of Silence” over “Amy.” http://www.theawardsconnection.com/home/2016/2/1/andrews-2015-oscar-predix
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