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November 20, 2020 at 9:59 pm #1203851970
Did any year have three or four?
Off the top of my head I’d say 1988 had 2 shocks (Kevin Kline, Geena Davis) and Jodie Foster which not everyone was predicting but still not really a shock.
1973 Glenda Jackson (baffling shock) Jack Lemmon probably a shock over Al Pacino. Tatum? I think that was a bit of a surprise.
1968 Cliff Robertson, the tie, Jack Albertson? Were those surprises?
Ideas welcome!
ReplyNovember 20, 2020 at 10:38 pm #1203852005Maybe 2001? I didn’t follow the oscars then and I know none of Denzel, Halle, or Broadbent were SHOCKS but I feel like all 3 were very close races and possibly none of them would’ve ranked 1st in vegas odds?
ReplyCopy URLNovember 21, 2020 at 6:47 am #1203852505I have no idea what the odds were at the time, but I don’t find Glenda Jackson’s second victory all that baffling. A Touch of Class was nominated for Best Picture and therefore had more support than any other film in her category save The Exorcist. Jackson was also showing a new side of herself in the type of sophisticated screwball role that Katharine Hepburn would have played in the 30s and 40s. Except for Burtsyn I haven’t seen the other Best Actress nominees that year so I couldn’t say who was the most deserving. (Jackson’s first win for Women in Love, however, is one of my favourites in the category ever.) I know Jackson herself was pretty indifferent to both her awards as well as the Oscars in general, saying that the win is really for those who voted for her.
Who was considered the frontrunner over Tatum O’Neal that same year? Sylvia Sydney? I know there was controversy about Linda Blair’s nomination after it emerged that Mercedes McCambridge did all of the demon voice-over (but really, how could anyone have thought that voice came from a thirteen-year-old?)
ReplyCopy URLNovember 21, 2020 at 6:56 am #1203852534In regards to 2001, that was definitely a year in which 3 of the Acting categories (save Supporting Actress) were up in the air. I did end up predicting Berry and Washington at the time but I believe I ended up predicting McKellan for Supporitng. I think Broadbent was considered “Even money” in the Vegas odds so it wasn’t shocking.
Crowe’s lost does seem shocking without knowing the backstory behind his assault of a producer at the BAFTAs when he cut his acceptance speech short but there was certainly a groundswell of support for Washington brewing in the press and also many were still fuming over his losses for MALCOLM X and more recently for THE HURRICANE in which he was considered co-frontrunner with Spacey.
I also concur about 1988 because aside from Dustin Hoffman, none of the others were sure things. In fact, Davis and Kline might be two of the biggest upset wins based strictly on precursors and expectations. At least Foster was part of that 3-way Globe tie.
ReplyCopy URL“The art of making art is putting it together...”
November 21, 2020 at 6:58 am #12038525402001 Supporting Actress: McDormand won the Critics Choice, Hudson won the Golden Globe, Walters won the BAFTA and Dench won the SAG. Then Harden (who wasn’t even nominated at any of those awards) won the Oscar.
ReplyCopy URLNovember 21, 2020 at 7:21 am #12038526272001 Supporting Actress: McDormand won the Critics Choice, Hudson won the Golden Globe, Walters won the BAFTA and Dench won the SAG. Then Harden (who wasn’t even nominated at any of those awards) won the Oscar.
That race immediately comes to mind for me.
ReplyCopy URLNovember 21, 2020 at 8:40 am #12038528272007 too comes to mind. Lead actress was quite up in the air and Julie Christie was the odds on favourite. And supporting actress not many were predicting Tilda Swinton to actually win.
ReplyCopy URLNovember 21, 2020 at 8:54 am #1203852868According to my family, Tatum O’Neil was the favorite to win that year.
Also, the idea that anyone could think Linda Blair did the demon’s voice in The Exorcist is so ridiculous. The whole point of that voice is that it should sound nothing like a little girl.
ReplyCopy URLNovember 21, 2020 at 9:52 am #12038529982007 too comes to mind. Lead actress was quite up in the air and Julie Christie was the odds on favourite. And supporting actress not many were predicting Tilda Swinton to actually win.
I remember watching that year and my jaw dropped twice.
ReplyCopy URLNovember 21, 2020 at 10:39 am #1203853096I think
Off the top of my head I’d say 1988 had 2 shocks (Kevin Kline, Geena Davis) and Jodie Foster which not everyone was predicting but still not really a shock.
I think I recall reading somewhere that Geena was predicted to win because the other 4 nominees were genuine supporting roles whereas she was a borderline lead. I think Siskel & Ebert were the ones who had predicted that, but I’m not sure. As for Jodie’s win, I don’t know that it was necessarily a surprise. She did win the Globe. Not that that was considered a “precursor” back then like it is today, but I’m just saying that she had already won a major award for that performance. I think the only other nominees who really stood a chance to win were Glenn and Melanie because they were both in BP nominees. Meryl wasn’t gonna win a third Oscar so soon. And Sigourney who was a double nominee probably got more votes in the supporting category. Jodie played a rape victim so that probably helped her chances of winning.
ReplyCopy URLFYC: Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman
November 21, 2020 at 10:54 am #1203853111The Glenn vs. Jodie year is definitely an “if we could only rewind the clock” race for Oscar. Not to mention the Marquise de Merteuil is an infinitely richer role than Sarah Tobias. Not that anyone could’ve known then that Jodie would win again three years later while Glenn would still be in the same situation now.
ReplyCopy URLNovember 21, 2020 at 11:25 am #12038531692007 too comes to mind. Lead actress was quite up in the air and Julie Christie was the odds on favourite. And supporting actress not many were predicting Tilda Swinton to actually win.
Cotillard winning was such an event
ReplyCopy URLFYC :
Best Actress - Viola Davis, Frances McDormand
Best Actor - Delroy Lindo, Chadwick Boseman
Best Supporting Actor - Colman Domingo, Glynn Turman
Best Picture - Nomadland
Best Director - Chloé Zhao
SAG Ensemble - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Cinematography - NomadlandNovember 21, 2020 at 11:27 am #1203853175When Rylance won.
ReplyCopy URLFYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")
November 21, 2020 at 1:14 pm #12038533452002, none of the winners from the above the line categories swept the precursors including directing/picture/screenplays.
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