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What’s the minimum and maximum wins you think each Best Picture nominee could get?

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  • Ghost
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    #178488

    American Sniper:

    Minimum- Nothing
    Maximum- 5 (Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing) 

    Birdman:

    Minimum- 1 (Cinematography)
    Maximum- 7 (Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing)

    Boyhood:

    Minimum- 1 (Supporting Actress)
    Maximum- 5 (Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing)

    The Grand Budapest Hotel:

    Minimum- 1 (Production Design)
    Maximum- 5 (Original Screenplay, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Score)

    The Imitation Game:

    Minimum- Nothing
    Maximum- 2 (Adapted Screenplay, Score)

    Selma:

    Minimum- Nothing
    Maximum- 1 (Song)

    The Theory of Everything:

    Minimum- Nothing
    Maximum- 3 (Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Score)

    Whiplash:

    Minimum- 1 (Supporting Actor)
    Maximum- 4 (Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Sound Mixing) 

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    Eddy Q
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    #178490

    I agree with above, except I don’t think American Sniper really has a chance in Adapted Screenplay without a WGA win, and I’d be shocked if Imitation Game won anything except Screenplay (even Score).
     

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    Ghost
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    #178491

    I agree with above, except I don’t think American Sniper really has a chance in Adapted Screenplay without a WGA win, and I’d be shocked if Imitation Game won anything except Screenplay (even Score).
     

    Score is a wide open category this year. I have TTOE, TGBH, and Interstellar above it, but anything could win.

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    Actriz
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    #178492

    American Sniper:
    Minimum – 0
    Maximum – 3 (Actor, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing) 

    Birdman:
    Minimum – 1 (Cinematography)
    Maximum – 5 (Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography)

    Boyhood:
    Minimum – 1 (Supporting Actress)
    Maximum – 5 (Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing)

    The Grand Budapest Hotel:
    Minimum – 3 (Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling)
    Maximum – 5 (Original Screenplay, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Score)

    The Imitation Game:
    Minimum – 0
    Maximum – 2 (Adapted Screenplay, Score)

    Selma:
    Minimum – 0
    Maximum – 1 (Song)

    The Theory of Everything:
    Minimum – 0
    Maximum – 0

    Whiplash:
    Minimum – 1 (Supporting Actor)
    Maximum – 4 (Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Sound Mixing) 

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    Halo_Insider
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    Jul 3rd, 2011
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    #178493

    You really don’t think The Theory of Everything even has a *chance* of winning Actor or Score?

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    Gone_Guy
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    #178494

    I’m responding without looking at any of the posts in the thread so far (so I won’t be influenced, haha. And I’ll look after I make this post). Here goes.

    American Sniper 
    – 0 Predicted Wins
    – 5 Potential Wins
    – 1 No Chance
    – It has 6 noms: Picture, Lead Actor (Bradley Cooper), Adapted Screeplay (Jason Hall), Editing (Joel Cox, Gary Roach), Sound Mixing, and Sound Editing.  
    – I count it out in Best Picture. I just don’t see any scenario where that happens. 
    – Lead Actor,: I think Cooper will rank third. But I know it’s possibly he could rank first.
    – Adapted Screenplay: I think it’s a three-way race between American Sniper, Whiplash, and The Imitation Game
    – Editing: this is Gary Roach’s first nom, as he has been working for Eastwood for a while. Cox already won for 1992’s Unforgiven.  I think it’s a three-way race between American Sniper, Boyhood, and Whiplash.
    – Sound Editing: I rank it a solid second behind Birdman.  
    – Sound Mixing: I rank it third behind Birdman and Whiplash.

    Birdman
    – 3  Predicted Wins  
    – 4 Potential Wins   
    – 2 No Chance 
    – It leads the way along w/ TGBH w/ 9 noms: Picture, Director, Lead Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing
    – Picture: I have it ranked second behind Boyhood, but w/ TGBH nipping at its heels.
    – Director: Same as what I said with Picture. A solid second.
    – Lead Actor: Yep. Solid second to Redmayne. But so frigging close it hurts.  
    – Supp. Actor: Even though Edward Norton will likely rank second, he’ll be a distant secon. I can see Simmons winning with over 50 percent of the vote. 
    – Supp. Actress: No chance. Stone likely comes in fourth.
    – Original Screenplay: I have it second behind TGBH, but I go back-and-forth, all the time, every day. What a race.  
    – Cinematography: My prediction to win. It doesn’t even come close. TGBH is a distant second.
    – Sound Editing: My prediction to win. It has American Sniper right on it, and maybe Interstellar.
    – Sound Mixing: My prediction to win. With Whiplash and American Sniper right on it.  

    Boyhood
    – 3 Predicted Wins  
    – 1 Potential Win 
    – 2 No Chance  
    – Six nominations: Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing
    – Picture: My prediction to win. Birdman is on it though, and could take it.
    – Director: A lock to win. Despite Birdman winning at DGA, it won’t be enough to stop Linklater here.
    – Supp. Actor: No chance for Hawke. He’ll come in a distant third behind Simmons and Norton.
    – Supp. Actress: A complete lock for Arquette. No one else comes close.
    – Original Screenplay: Nah. It’s a two-way race between Birdman and TGBH. Despite nominations, Boyhood hasn’t won a single major precursor in a Screenplay category. It’s in third. 
    – Editing: It’s a definite potential win. It’s perhaps even a likely win. But I just can’t predict this over Whiplash. I very well could be wrong, however, and should Boyhood lose this category, I know it will have likely come in second.   

    The Grand Budapest Hotel
    – 3 Predicted Wins   

    – 2 Potential Wins   
    – 4 No Chance     
    – Nine nominations: Picture, Director, Original Screenplay,  Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup & Hair, Original Score
    – Picture: It’s sort of a three-way race between this, Birdman, and Boyhood. It could definitely take it.
    – Director: Nah. I think it’s Linklater, with an outside shot for Inarritu. Anderson comes in third though.
    – Original Screenplay: Its best chance at winning a major category. It is in such a race with Birdman, but I really think TGBH will win this. 
    – Cinematography: I think it’s in second behind Birdman, but it’s a very distant second with no chance of trumping it.  
    – Editing: I think it ranks 4th.
    – Production Design: I think it’s a lock to win this. Into the Woods is a very distant second. 
    – Costume Design: Hmm. I think it will either win or come in second to Into the Woods. Costumer Designer Milena Canonero has three wins (75/Barry Lyndon, 81/Chariots of Fire, and 06/Marie Antoinette) out of nine nominations. Costumer Designer for Into the Woods, Colleen Atwood, has three wins (02/Chicago, 05/Memoirs of a Geisha, and 10/Alice in Wonderland) out of 11 nominations. TGBH is the only nominee with major support in other categories; however, this is one category that’s proven in the past that its winner doesn’t have to have broad support. So this is a potential, as TGBH will likely come in a solid yet close second. 
    – Makeup & Hair: Although I think it will come in second, I don’t think it will be close. This belongs to Foxcatcher.
    – Original Score: Oh man. I so badly want Alexandre Desplat to win for this. He’s a double-nominee, also for The Imitation Game, and this year marks his 7th and 8th nominations, and he’s never won. With BirdmanGone Girl, and Whiplash ridiculously out of the mix, I think TGBH should take it. I guess the biggest threat is The Theory of Everything, but I feel this score is far superior. I’m predicting it to win, but it’s a risk. 

    The Imitation Game
    – 1 Predicted Win
    – 1 Potential Win
    – 6 No Chance
    – Eight nominations: Picture, Director, Lead Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Production Design, Original Score
    – Picture: No way. I think it’ll rank 7th-8th.
    – Director: Nope. Comes in 4th-5th.
    – Lead Actor: Probably comes in 4th, as Cumberbatch likely edges out Carell.
    – Supp. Actress: I have Knightley coming in at 4th-5th, with Emma Stone.
    – Adapted Screenplay: Gah. I’m predicting it to win, but not because I think it is the most deserving, but because they gave this film eight very major nominations, and I can’t see it going home empty handed. This is the likely place they’ll reward it, aided by its recent WGA win. I hope Whiplash takes it.
    – Editing: I’m thinking it comes in 5th here.
    – Production Design: Ranks 4th-5th w/ Mr. Turner.
    – Original Score: Maybe. I could see it winning, I could see it ranking no more than 3rd.  

    Selma
    – 1 Predicted Win
    – 0 Potential Wins
    – 1 No Chance
    – Two nominations: Picture, Original Song
    – Picture: I think it’ll rank 6th-8th.
    – Original Song: I’m predicting it to win, but I would be very very pleased to see “Lost Stars” win for Begin Again. To me, it’s a better song and fits into the plotline of its film in the way this category likes. But in no way would I be dissatisfied to see “Glory” take it. It’s my second favorite of the bunch, and I’m predicting it for the win.  

    The Theory of Everything
    – 1 Predicted Win 
    – 1 Potential Win  
    – 3 No Chance 
    – Five nominations: Picture, Lead Actor, Lead Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Original Score
    – Picture: No way.
    – Lead Actor: It’s gonna be tight, but I think Redmayne will be adding an Oscar to his Globe, SAG, and BAFTA.
    – Lead Actress: No chance.
    – Adapted Screenplay: Despite its win at BAFTA, I don’t think it has a chance to win here. I have it ranked 4th-5th win Inherent Vice.
    – Original Score: Gah. It’s so close to winning this. I am rooting for and predicting TGBH, but I know Johann Johannson could potentially win this. If he loses, he’ll have come in a close second.

    Whiplash
    – 3 Predicted Wins
    – 1 Potential Win
    – 1 No Chance  
    – Five nominations: Picture, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Sound Mixing
    – Picture: Sigh. Sadly, I just don’t think it can do it. I would have absolutely zero complaints if it did manage to pull it off.
    – Supporting Actor: Acting lock of the night, c’mon. Even moreso than Moore and Arquette (who are both locks too haha).
    – Adapted Screenplay: It’s complete b/s that the Academy put it in Adapted instead of Original. But the good news to come out of that move is it went from likely coming in 3rd-4th in Original to potentially coming in 1st in Adapted. Of the five screenplays in the category, it really is the best. But outside factors could affect its chances e.g. Will someone voting not go for it because it’s in Adapted? I’m predicting it to win, but it could just as easily come in 2nd-3rd, thanks a to a big three-way race w/ both American Sniper and The Imitation Game
    – Editing: It should win. I’m predicting it to win. But it’s fighting against Boyhood and American Sniper.  
    – Sound Mixing: It could potentially win. But it missed out on a Sound Editing nom. I could see it winning, but I could also see it ranking fourth. The only one I’m pretty sure will rank 5th is Unbroken. The other four – American Sniper, Birdman, Interstellar, and Whiplash – are fighting it out. Potential, but not likely.  

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    Zooey the Dreamer
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    #178495

    American Sniper 
    Minimum: Zero
    Maximum: Three (sound mixing, sound editing, actor)
    Predicted: Zero

    Birdman
    Minimum: Zero (cinematography is one of these categories that knows no locks, just ask Emmanuel Lubezki)
    Maximum: Seven (except supporting categories)
    Predicted: I am stubborn, two (sound editing and cinematography)

    Boyhood
    Minimum: Supporting Actress
    Maximim: 5 (except Hawke)
    Predicted: 4 (except Hawke and screenplay)

    The Grand Budapest Hotel
    Minimum: 1 (Production Design)
    Maximum: 6 (except picture, directing, editing)
    Predicted: 5 (except picture, directing, editing and cinematography)

    The Imitation Game
    Minimum: 0
    Maximum: 1 (screenplay)
    Predicted: 1 (screenplay and I feel it’s a risk)

    Selma
    Minimum: 0
    Maximum: 1
    Predicted: 1 (but I feel like changing)

    The Theory of Everything
    Minimum: 0
    Maximum: 3 (Actor, Score, Screenplay)
    Predicted: 1 (Actor)

    Whiplash
    Mimimum: 1
    Maximum: 4
    Predicted: 2 (Supporting Actor, Sound Mixing)

     

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    Eddy Q
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    #178496

    [quote=”Wilkomirsk11″]I agree with above, except I don’t think American Sniper really has a chance in Adapted Screenplay without a WGA win, and I’d be shocked if Imitation Game won anything except Screenplay (even Score).
     

    Score is a wide open category this year. I have TTOE, TGBH, and Interstellar above it, but anything could win.[/quote]

    Looking at past winners in this category, it just seems so unlikely that IG will take it. They’ll either go for music with strong ethnic roots (GBH) or sentimental sap (TofE). I predict/hope the former, and the fact that it has some Vivaldi and Russian folk tunes mixed in will help as voters might think Desplat wrote them. Seriously.

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    tonorlo
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    Oct 4th, 2011
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    #178497

    American Sniper

    Minimum: 1 (Sound Editing)

    Maximum: 3 (Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Editing)

     

    Birdman

    Minimum: 2 (Director, Cinematography)

    Maximum: 5 (Picture, Actor, Director, Original Screenplay, Cinematography)

     

    Boyhood

    Minimum: 1 (Supporting Actress)

    Maximum: 4 (Picture, Supporting Actress, Director, Editing)

     

    The Grand Budapest Hotel

    Minimum: 2 (Production Design, Makeup and Hairstyling)

    Maximum: 5 (Original Screenplay, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Score)

     

    The Imitation Game

    Minimum/Maximum: 1 (Adapted Screenplay)

     

    Selma

    Minimum/Maximum: 1 (Song)

     

    The Theory of Everything

    Minimum: 1 (Actor)

    Maximum: 3 (Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Score)

     

    Whiplash

    Minimum: 1 (Supporting Actor)

    Maximum: 3 (Supporting Actor, Editing, Sound Mixing)

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