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Which BP/Director combination is most likely?

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Eden
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Which BP/Director combination is most likely?
Parasite/Bong Joon-Ho
Parasite/Sam Mendes
1917/Bong Joon-Ho
1917/Sam Mendes
Hollywood/Bong Joon-Ho
Hollywood/Sam Mendes
Other
  • LLLhawks
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    I’m going for my heart here and say Parasite and Mendes although my mind is saying it’ll be OUATIH and Mendes.

    My inner child wants it to be Parasite and Bong Joon Ho

    I just love movies. And awards.

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    zkrons
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    I think OUATIH will win Picture…I’d like Bong to win director, but Mendes makes more sense.

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    Eden
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    bump

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    We have known for a while that the Director’s branch is not strong enough to push its favourite to win best picture, hence all the bp/directing splits recently.

    Well it looks like now they arent even strong enough to have their preferred choice take even Best Director.

    The actors and writers are deciding Best Picture, and in Parasite’s case the support was so strong that they even decided Best Director. It doesnt hurt that even many directors would have voted for Parasite.

    This is such a stunning win. It’s probably my favourite win of the last few years

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    Zooey the Dreamer
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    We have known for a while that the Director’s branch is not strong enough to push its favourite to win best picture, hence all the bp/directing splits recently.

    Well it looks like now they arent even strong enough to have their preferred choice take even Best Director.

    The actors and writers are deciding Best Picture, and in Parasite’s case the support was so strong that they even decided Best Director. It doesnt hurt that even many directors would have voted for Parasite.

    This is such a stunning win. It’s probably my favourite win of the last few years

    Wait a sec! We know nothing. You are presenting your own assumptions as facts. Saying the directors didn’t want Bong to win is your assumption and is based on the DGA. The DGA and the directors at the Academy are not the same thing! Making such a statement is like saying: Well, non-actors rule the Academy, since Regina King and Olivia Colman are winning. The actors couldn’t push their favorites.

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    JackO
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    lol this was at 9 votes when I left and now Parasite/Bong is at 13 votes lol

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    Saying the directors didn’t want Bong to win is your assumption and is based on the DGA

    I literally wrote many directors voting for Parasite doesn’t hurt either. When did I say that the director’s completely supported 1917? But they definitely favoured it, given its DGA win and Bafta win.

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    Seven
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    Voted for Parasite/Mendes. I had a gut feeling that Parasite would come through but that directing win was a fucking gag. Biggest shock since Moonlight/La La Land

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    asuka
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    I predicted Parasite for Picture and 1917 for Director.

    Actually, I think Bong winning Director is an even bigger surprise than Moonlight winning Picture. Both highly deserved upsets though.

    1917 won PGA, DGA, GG and BAFTA so you would think it would at least win Director.. But I’m glad it didn’t. Bong Joon Ho is easily the most deserving of Best Director this year so I’m glad the Academy got it right.

    Moonlight winning Picture, while definitely not widely predicted, was (I think) predicted by more people than the number of people this year who predicted Bong to win Director. Although of course I’m not entirely sure of this.

    For the record, in my opinion Moonlight winning Picture was more surprising than Parasite winning Picture.

    Either way, I’m happy I ranked 17 / 10,257 this year with 22/24 categories correctly predicted. 🙂
    But I’m even happier with Parasite sweeping its top 3 nominations. I was shaking as I was watching the ceremony. History was made last night.

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    Riley Chow
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    Picture and Director splitting is a relatively recent phenomenon that I think we can trace back to The King’s Speech. This was back when the winners of most BAFTA Awards were decided by the relevant branches, so even though The King’s Speech swept at BAFTA with three acting wins and won at the Oscars and DGA, the directors’ branch at BAFTA awarded David Fincher. With The King’s Speech being more popular and The Social Network being less so at BAFTA than at the Oscars, I think that we can assume that he was also the choice of the directors’ branch at the Oscars.

    So the next time that the directors’ branch disagreed with the film that was sweeping the season, they snubbed it outright. Without the option of merely checking off the same film for Director as in Picture, academy members at large were forced to consider Best Director on its own. This kicked off many years of Best Director then going to the biggest technical achievement. And the directors’ branch became more comfortable with this agenda, snubbing Green Book and nearly Spotlight, per its BAFTA snub. With this in mind, I am inclined to think that the directors’ branch favoured 1917.

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    Picture and Director splitting is a relatively recent phenomenon that I think we can trace back to The King’s Speech. This was back when the winners of most BAFTA Awards were decided by the relevant branches, so even though The King’s Speech swept at BAFTA with three acting wins and won at the Oscars and DGA, the directors’ branch at BAFTA awarded David Fincher. With The King’s Speech being more popular and The Social Network being less so at BAFTA than at the Oscars, I think that we can assume that he was also the choice of the directors’ branch at the Oscars.

    So the next time that the directors’ branch disagreed with the film that was sweeping the season, they snubbed it outright. Without the option of merely checking off the same film for Director as in Picture, academy members at large were forced to consider Best Director on its own. This kicked off many years of Best Director then going to the biggest technical achievement. And the directors’ branch became more comfortable with this agenda, snubbing Green Book and nearly Spotlight, per its BAFTA snub. With this in mind, I am inclined to think that the directors’ branch favoured 1917.

    Riley, do you agree with me that the actors and writers and editors pretty much overtook the preference of the directors in deciding not just best picture (as has been the case for a while), but also best director?

    Also PGA has now been wrong in 2015, 2016, and 2019. Does this mean the SAG + WGA combo is the most effective predictor?

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    Riley Chow
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    I do not necessarily agree. Despite my post above, there is a case to be made that the directors’ branch favoured Parasite, since there seems to be a disconnect between the guilds and the Oscars with that film, e.g. PGA. Regardless, the non-directors maybe decided the directing winner this year, but that was after years of the directors pointing the academy in the direction that they wanted (per my post above), so I cannot say that this year is part of a trend yet. I do not trust SAG because the Green Book and especially The Shape of Water snubs were inexplicable. 1917 (and The Revenant) might have missed purely because of a late release.

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    since there seems to be a disconnect between the guilds and the Oscars with that film, e.g. PGA

    Was there a disconnect? Parasite won Ace Eddie, SAG, ADG, and WGA. I’d say that’s a pretty decisive connect with most guilds.

    I am trying to figure out whether the disconnect at PGA is specific for that film, or if PGA is just not as reliable as it used to be. With Parasite, Moonlingt, and Spotlight all losing PGA, and with 12 Years being one vote away from losing it as well, idkk what to make of PGA anymore.

    but that was after years of the directors pointing the academy in the direction that they wanted (per my post above), so I cannot say that this year is part of a trend yet

    Fair enough.

    I do not trust SAG because the Green Book and especially The Shape of Water snubs were inexplicable.

    I will still stick to my theory that the Alphabetical order of the ballot plays a vital role in deciding SAG nominees.

    However, I was talking about WINNING the SAG ensemble and the WGA as a more powerful combo than winning PGA.

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    Eden
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    I believe the current climate has bigger effect than guilds in cases like Moonlight and Parasite. It also helps that Parasite had huge buzz.

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