January 7, 2016 at 5:58 am #206618
Here are the current predictions by Experts: http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/experts/oscars-2015-nominations-nominations/best-picture.html
Because there is such a wide array of predictions going on this season, I want to know–which Expert do you agree with most? Do you and him/her have the same 10 BP predix? Do you find yourself usually agreeing with this Expert? Etc.January 7, 2016 at 9:34 am #206620
I generally like to rank based on chances of a nomination and not change my predictions in a category unless I am taking someone out because then I will lose my favourable odds, but Tom gives instructions to the Experts to rank by chances of a win, so that makes this easy because Sasha Stone is the only one predicting The Big Short to win. The only other one that I can respect is Anne Thompson, who has Adam McKay nominated for directing and winning for writing.January 7, 2016 at 10:25 am #206621
I didn’t know that about Tom’s instructions to the Experts, so thanks for pointing that out, demonhog. It helps understand some of their rankings.
I’ll say this first: I CANNOT agree with any Expert that still has Room in for Best Picture, but especially if they do and they updated their predix after the PGA announcement. To that end, I’m a little disappointed because I’ve found myself in the past aligning very closely to Tariq Khan’s predictions, but he has Room at #5 and he updated on 1/6 soooooo………………… we still share 9/10 predix though for whatever that’s worth.
I typically do NOT agree with Sasha Stone, but we share all 10 of our picks right now, though in a wildly different order. I, too, think The Big Short is a strong contender for the win, but I don’t think Carol is a #10 behind a #9 Sicario and #7 Straight Outta Compton. Even with their wide support in guilds, those are very clearly (to me) #s 9 and 10.January 7, 2016 at 11:01 am #206622
At this moment with Sasha.
But I get the feeling that my predictions will have a lot more changes until the 14th.January 7, 2016 at 1:01 pm #206623
Room might just be going the Winter’s Bone route.January 7, 2016 at 1:47 pm #206624This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.January 7, 2016 at 1:58 pm #206625
When trying to predict the acting nominees I like to watch Scott Feinberg and Dave Kargers predictions. They tend to know where surprises are going to happen like Weaver, Cooper, Hill, and Dern these last few years.
Other than those two Thompson and Gold Derby’s own Tom O’Neil are always good pundits to pay attention to during the awards season.January 7, 2016 at 4:23 pm #206626
I usually follow Anne Thompson, Scott Feinberg, and Sasha Stone’s but not to suck up or anything I tend to agree with Tom most of the time.January 8, 2016 at 7:22 am #206627
Tom O’Neill was the ONLY one who got 5/5 for Best Actor last year.
Most people including me had Oyelow and Gyllenhaal in.
Carell was my 6th spare but I did not see Cooper coming at all!January 8, 2016 at 7:45 am #206628
PAUL SHEEHAN or SASHA STONEJanuary 8, 2016 at 8:43 am #206629
Room might just be going the Winter’s Bone route.
That’s actually a really clever comparison, Riley. Both are female-driven, very emotional, Independent movies that got nominated for major Oscars because of how genuine and totally unlike typical Oscar bait they felt.
Except that Winter’s Bone got in BP during a year where there was a forced 10 nominees. It probably wouldn’t have made the cut if it was in one of the sliding scale years. Which, I guess, makes the comparison very apt considering Room isn’t getting in this year.
For that reason, Room is very much Gone Girl. One nomination (actress) with a lot of hooping and hollering about how it didn’t get the expected Adapted Screenplay and Best Picture noms.
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