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Which historical triumph will happen first in the 2020s?

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Which historical triumph will happen first in the 2020s?
Black director winning best director (male or female)
Openly LGBT director winning best director
Woman winning best cinematography
Sci-fi/action movie winning best picture*
Animated movie winning best picture
Movie winning best picture and no other major awards (directing, writing, acting
Movie winning best picture and nothing else**
Actor/actress winning both best leading and best supporting role the same year
Other. Which?
Nothing. Everything will remain the same as we've seen.
  • Asgaroth
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    In the past decade + 2009 we’ve seen a lot of Oscar outcomes making Oscar history. From the first woman to win best director in 2009 to the first film not in the English language winning best picture in 2019. We also saw the first black writer to win best screenplay, the first Muslim to win an acting award, and stats-breaking records such as 2 movies winning best picture without a best director nomination, a movie winning best picture without a best editing nomination, a movie winning best picture without having won none of PGA, DGA and SAG, 2 best picture winners not nominated for best ensemble at SAG, a best picture winner grossing less than $20 million at the US box office and a best picture winner winning only one other award.

    What do you think is next in line during the following decade? Which historical triumph is the most likely to happen soon?

    *: Some contend that “The Shape of Water” was a sci-fi movie. But that consideration is not really a consensus, and to many it’s in reality a drama with a fantasy element in the same vein as Benjamin Button.
    **: While it’s true that Grand Hotel won best picture without winning anything else (wasn’t even nominated for anything else), its win corresponds to the early stages of the Oscars when the context and criteria were substantially different to the ones ruling nowadays, so it’s fair to say that no movie has ever won best picture without winning anything else under normal, established circumstances.

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    ArtIsntEasy
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    I think we will finally see someone black winning Best Director, whether that be Spike Lee, Barry Jenkins, Ava DuVernay, Jordan Peele, or someone we aren’t even fully aware of yet.

    I also hope that an Animated film will be able to overcome the bias and take Best Picture, but I feel like we need to have the quality of the films rise up to the level of INSIDE OUT, UP, TOY STORY 3, or WALL-E to even think of that possibly happening. I feel like it may very well be an even bigger hurdle to overcome than a Foreign Film winning.

    “The art of making art is putting it together...”

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    Seven
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    It’s time for a Black director to win. And considering that McQueen and Jenkins were runner-up (possibly Lee and Peele too) I think it’s bound to happen very soon

    I’m ready (for the racist fumes)

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 1 week ago by  Seven.
    • This reply was modified 1 month, 1 week ago by  Seven.
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    jsn
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    A black director will most likely happen, maybe as soon as next year with Spike Lee for Da 5 Bloods, or maybe in a few years when Jordan Peele creates another Get Out level thing.

     

    A sci-fi movie winning BP could also happen as soon as next year if Dune delivers, tho that’s less likely.

     

    A movie winning BP with no directing, writing and acting wins almost happened this year, so maybe? The preferential ballot era is breaking some stats.

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    fefface
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    A movie winning BP with no directing, writing and acting wins almost happened this year, so maybe? The preferential ballot era is breaking some stats.

    How did it almost happen? Parasite had no acting nods but it won for both writing and directing.

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    unown
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    Wow im not surprised that there is overwhelming consensus on Director, thats what i picked too. I  think that might be the tip of the iceberg. Everything else down the line is too extreme for the academy now.

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    Miles
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    How did it almost happen? Parasite had no acting nods but it won for both writing and directing.

    I think he/she is referring to 1917?

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    Jays
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    Probably a black director winning. My guess is Jenkins or McQueen. Spike Lee, maybe, but BlacKkKlansman was the first time he was nominated since the 90’s, so I’d be naive to think that every movie he makes now will be embraced by the Academy. Also, he won for screenplay which could be seen as his reward. I also wouldn’t be surprised if a sci-fi movie won BP. Parasite’s win was big in the sense that a film that wouldn’t traditionally do well with the Academy, was able to breakthrough in a big way.

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    nkb325
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    I think we will finally see someone black winning Best Director, whether that be Spike Lee, Barry Jenkins, Ava DuVernay, Jordan Peele, or someone we aren’t even fully aware of yet.

    I also hope that an Animated film will be able to overcome the bias and take Best Picture, but I feel like we need to have the quality of the films rise up to the level of INSIDE OUT, UP, TOY STORY 3, or WALL-E to even think of that possibly happening. I feel like it may very well be an even bigger hurdle to overcome than a Foreign Film winning.

    I feel like the only way an animated movie wins BP is if it’s an adult animated film (along the lines of Anomolisa) – don’t think a family animated film will ever be taken seriously enough unfortunately

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    CateNicole
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    Spike!!! Da 5 Bloods is coming for all the biggies!

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    gorman
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    Yeah I think a black director winning is a certainty. Spike Lee is my current favourite this year, and there are so many possible candidates who are either established or up and coming talents that it seems almost inevitable.

    I can also see an LGBT director winning pretty easily; Sciamma, Almodovar, Haynes, Guadagnino, Dolan, Ford and more are all great directors who will have great decades. A female cinematographer seems pretty feasible too.

    A couple of the others seem definitely possible (no above the line wins BP winner, actor doing a double) but they’re less feasible and seem like stuff the Academy would avoid more so now than ever.

    The only two I’d rule out are an Animated film winning BP and a BP winner winning only BP and nothing else, although the preferential ballot could continue to churn out shocks and even result in one of these eventually.

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    BICTH
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    spike is just waiting to happen this year, I think having an openly lgbt director win is more likely than it sounds on paper once you list the potential candidates

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    Cordelia
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    This isn’t a triumph but I predict a film that only gets nominated for Best Picture will happen this decade.

    Anyway, a black director winning hopefully. There’s a lot of great directors who are already on the Academy’s radar, so it will happen.

     

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Parasite

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    I also hope that an Animated film will be able to overcome the bias and take Best Picture, but I feel like we need to have the quality of the films rise up to the level of INSIDE OUT, UP, TOY STORY 3, or WALL-E to even think of that possibly happening. I feel like it may very well be an even bigger hurdle to overcome than a Foreign Film winning.

    We had that with Into the Spider-Verse, which I really do think would’ve gotten more nominations (including Picture) if it had opened 2 weeks earlier / had to more to to marinate with voters

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    I think he/she is referring to 1917?

    Yeah and I’m not convinced it’s happening any time soon. Some ground rules need to say consistent, right?

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