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Which was a bigger upset: Hopkins 2020 or Colman 2018?

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Which was a bigger upset: Hopkins 2020 or Colman 2018?
Anthony Hopkins defeating Chadwick Boseman in 2020
74 votes (41.81%)
Olivia Colman defeating Glenn Close in 2018
103 votes (58.19%)
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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1204233136

    Glenn had the overdue narrative going on, and despite being the movie’s sole nomination, I thought she would win because Julianne Moore was in the same boat a couple of years before.

    Also, Olivia Colman had a relatively low profile stateside and was unable to campaign properly because of filming obligations for The Crown.

    I think the difference between Julianne Moore in 2014 and Glenn Close in 2018 is that in Moore’s category, she had no clear alternative. She was up against two other performers (Marion Cotillard and Rosamund Pike) who were also the lone representations for their films and a previous winner (Reese Witherspoon) whose film may have had an additional acting bid, but not much support either. Moore’s only competitor who was in a Best Picture nominee was Felicity Jones in The Theory of Everything, but she never had any chance of winning as her co-star, Eddie Redmayne, was getting all the attention in his category.

    I would also like to bring up another instance where BAFTA correctly forecasted an upset in an acting race and a lot of predictors disregarded it, which was Best Supporting Actor in 2015. Sylvester Stallone was the sentimental favorite to win for his big comeback as Rocky Balboa in Creed. While I did end up predicting him, I also knew he was vulnerable for several reasons. Stallone has never been respected as an actor by any stretch of the imagination; he was the only nomination Creed received, especially in a category that was filled out with performances from Best Picture nominees; and he did not have support from SAG nor BAFTA. Although many people were questioning if Stallone even had an alternative. Predictors appeared to have underestimated Mark Rylance all season long because as great as his performance was in Bridges of Spies, it was still very understated. Not to mention that he wasn’t able to do any campaigning at all given his theater commitments at the time. He also wasn’t even able to attend any of the precursors (besides the Golden Globes). So when he won Best Supporting Actor at BAFTA, director Steven Spielberg had to accept the award on his behalf. Though on Oscar night, Rylance managed to pull through over Stallone.

    With the way Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom underperformed in Oscar nominations by missing out on bids for Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay, that should’ve been the signal all along that the film wasn’t as strong as people thought it would be early on.

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    rosieangel
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    #1204233244

    For me it was Colman. Glenn’s overdue narrative felt stronger with voters to me than Boseman’s, and dementia resonating so deeply with so many people is why I predicted Hopkins over Boseman.

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    iWantTheGold
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    #1204233650

    Colman, for sure. A lot of people had Hopkins upsetting Boseman (including myself). Pretty sure almost nobody thought Close was losing.

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    vinny
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    #1204233697

    Hopkins

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    jez89
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    #1204233932

    Statistically Colman had more of a chance but she felt like the bigger upset. I was sure they were going to give it to Close. Hopkins actually had the best performance so I was pleasantly surprised, but not shocked, when his name was read out.

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    Butz
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    #1204234421

    Colman, absolutely. I remember joking with one of my co-watchers about how stupid they would look if they gave it to Hopkins after switching the categories, and it got more possible especially after The Father won Screenplay over the Picture winner. I didn’t even THINK about Colman winning once after watching The Favourite in the beginning of January. That wasn’t even a possibility I considered. And The Favourite lost EVERYTHING that night. Colman winning might be one of the most shocking upsets ever.

    FYC - Oscars 2022:
    NINE DAYS in all categories, including:
    - Best Picture
    - Best Director
    - Best Original Screenplay
    - Best Actor (Winston Duke)
    - Best Supporting Actress (Zazie Beetz)
    - Best Supporting Actor (Benedict Wong)

    Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges

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    Alan
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    #1204235053

    The fact that another Olivia’s movie made an upset in the leading category. She’s the moment, she’s that bitch

    Four-time Academy Award winner Frances McDormand

    Two-time Academy Award winner Anthony Hopkins

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    Foolio
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    #1204235178

    Olivier Colman was the bigger shocker for sure. I was this close to switching my prediction to A-Hop on Oscars eve; the possibility of his win was tangible.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204235279

    Colman for me, as I predicted Hopkins.

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    Hoster1
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    #1204235361

    There’s was a feeling in the air that Hopkins could win this (as well as him being the original frontrunner from the start, before Chadwick moved to Lead).

    Colman winning wasn’t really widely regarded as a possibility, so her win is a bigger upset in my book.

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    crabbie
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    #1204235415

    Colman. Close literally got a standing ovation at the Globes from her peers crying and cheering for her. After that moment I thought she would have it in the bag. She also surprisingly won the Spirit Award over Film Twitter darling Toni Collete. It seemed like everyone knew it was Glenn Close’s time that year. I would never expect a newcomer of the Academy would beat a 7 time nominee veteran. Ironically that loss foreshadowed newcomer Yuh-Jung Youn beating Close this year.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    James Breheney
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    #1204235462

    Hopkins was the bigger upset stats-wise but I remember being much more shocked when Colman was announced as the winner. In fact, I was astonished.

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