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Who Is Going To Win Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe or Sam Rockwell?

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  • Dr. Manhattan
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    At this point, I think that they both have a 50/50 of winning. I am looking forward to how this race turns out. Both have similar stories: character actors who both have an IOU factor. Dafoe having been nominated twice and never winning, and Rockwell never having been nominated at all. I have seen The Florida Project, but I haven’t seen Three Billboards yet. Although he never changes his voice nor did he undergo a physical transformation, I would call Dafoe’s performance transformative. He loses himself in this great role, which the writers fill with subtle nuances, and Dafoe brings the character to life spectacularly. And he has a stronger IOU factor than Rockwell. But Rockwell has gained weight for the role, and from what I have heard, this is a flashy performance. I currently have Dafoe in my number one slot, but that’s just because I think he is more likely to get nominated than Rockwell. I will have to wait to see Three Billboards to determine who I think is the worthier winner, but logistically right now, I think both performances and the stories behind both performances provide both actors with an equal chance to win.

    I am interested in knowing what you all think of the Supporting Actor race. Who do you think will win amongst the two? Who should win amongst the two? And do you see someone else, like Hammer or Stuhlbarg or Jenkins or Mitchell or Rylance, taking this Oscar instead?

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    Milk Money
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    #1202424757

    Willem foe da win!

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    M: The Original
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    Christopher Plummer.

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    AwardsConnect
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    My gut says Dafoe, even with that random ISA snub.

    For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis, please visit me at The Awards Connection!

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    JackO
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    RIGHT NOW

    I’d say Dafoe

    At Oscars

    I don’t know yet. The race has changed quickly.

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    Foolio
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    #1202424800

    Performances and roles aside, W-Daf has a much stronger narrative than S-Rock – he is a world-famous veteran and character actor that everyone respects; his first nomination was exactly thirty years ago but he still hasn’t won. You can’t get much more overdue than him. Also, they might want to reward The Florida Project *somewhere*. But who knows!

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    Tyler The Awesome Guy
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    I hope someone comes up from behind and surprises us.

    But I think Willem is more deserving than Sam in every way.

    FYC: Ready Player One. Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects, Original Score, Production Design, Director and BEST PICTURE (make it happen Oscars!!)

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    JB
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    I think Michael Stuhlbarg will upset and deservedly so.
    Nominees will be Dafoe, Rockwell, Hammer, Stuhlbarg and one other… my bet is Richard Jenkins (“Shape of Water”)

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    Wigseau
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    I haven’t seen their films, but man, Willem Dafoe IS my childhood since he did Green Goblin (an underrated amazing performance) in Spider-Man.

    This year I stan: Bradley Cooper, Lady Gaga, Joanna Kulig, Sam Elliott and Toni Collette (at the moment).

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    jf123
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    I would usually say that the fact that Dafoe is so subtle hurts him, but that didn’t hurt the past two winners in this category. The fact that Rockwell’s character is a racist who gets a redemption arc has already pissed off some people, so that will probably hurt him in the end.

    Give Paul Thomas Anderson an Oscar.

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    Eddy Q
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    I think Michael Stuhlbarg will upset and deservedly so.
    Nominees will be Dafoe, Rockwell, Hammer, Stuhlbarg and one other… my bet is Richard Jenkins (“Shape of Water”)

    I have the exact same predictions! Stuhlbarg has the “one scene” that even Rylance and Ali had to a lesser extent, and much earlier on in their films. Dafoe doesn’t really have that, and I don’t know if Rockwell does because I haven’t seen 3 Billboards yet. (I’m aware that many consider him the frontrunner and if he wins at least two of the three upcoming major critics awards and Stuhlbarg wins none then I’ll probably switch.) Out of our agreed top 5, I’d say Hammer is the most likely to miss out if the double-supporting-male drought continues. If that happens, my guess is Ben Mendelsohn is next in line. But I really feel like Stuhlbarg could hit the sweet spot with voters in this category.

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    Miles
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    I’m surprised I’m the only one who says Rockwell. I haven’t seen either film but people have said that this is an Oscar winning performance for Rockwell. Three Billboards is picking up steam and is a contender in picture and director and actress. TFP could be nominated for Picture but it’s only real chance at a win is Dafoe and I have heard his role is too subtle and even not deserving.

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    Riley
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    Where the poll at?

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    FreemanGriffin
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    Willem Dafoe is going to win.

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    pacinofan
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    If Willem Dafoe is the only nomination for “The Florida Project” than he will have a hard time winning no matter how many critics’rizes he wins. As long as “Three Billboards” is a best picture nominee and “Florida Project” is not then Rockwell has better odds.

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