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Who is the Best Picture Front-Runner?

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    Cinephile
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    #1202421455

     I think Lady Bird is underestimated by the experts at Gold Derby. I think A24 will be on a roll and win there second Best Picture in a row. Most pundits are knocking it for being too light/not important. But did that stop Rocky, Annie Hall, Shakespeare in Love and Birdman from winning?

    in any other year yes. But this year’s political climate particularly within the industry is just too confronting to ignore. Voters, will definitely have “what type of message am I sending” mentality when voting for BP

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    Honey
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    #1202421463

    I think Lady Bird is underestimated by the experts at Gold Derby. I think A24 will be on a roll and win there second Best Picture in a row. Most pundits are knocking it for being too light/not important. But did that stop Rocky, Annie Hall, Shakespeare in Love and Birdman from winning?

    in any other year yes. But this year’s political climate particularly within the industry is just too confronting to ignore. Voters, will definitely have “what type of message am I sending” mentality when voting for BP

    That means nothing, most voters arent going to casually walk up to each other and ask “Tell me the order of what you put the BP contenders” to even care what their peers are voting for or for their approval. Even if they did, most people would only tell others their 1st picks anyways and Lady Bird can get enough high ranking # to win as the reviews have shown people loved the movie and not everybody is going to pick the same #1’s.

    And you can make every single movie become a political discussion, like OMG Lady Bird has a female director and writer and no female director + writer + female lead film in 1 whole movie won BP. Hurt Locker only had a female director but a male writer and lead.

    There I made it become a political/social message for female empowerment to vote for Lady Bird, because Shape of Water and 3b have female leads but MALE director and WRITERS and since we are on a witch hunt and ALL MEN IN HOLLYWOOD ARE BAD.

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    EvaSofie
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    #1202421467

    There I made it become a political/social message for female empowerment to vote for Lady Bird, because Shape of Water and 3b have female leads but MALE director and WRITERS and since we are on a witch hunt and ALL MEN IN HOLLYWOOD ARE BAD.

    Sorry to burst your bubble, but The Post is female led and written by a female.

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    Honey
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    #1202421471

    There I made it become a political/social message for female empowerment to vote for Lady Bird, because Shape of Water and 3b have female leads but MALE director and WRITERS and since we are on a witch hunt and ALL MEN IN HOLLYWOOD ARE BAD.

    Sorry to burst your bubble, but The Post is female led and written by a female.

    Josh Singer is still a writer for it and its directed by Spielberg who is also male and apparently hates women cuz he apparently never does female movies, and i didnt even talk about the post so iono why ur bringing that up, but okay.

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    Cinephile
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    #1202421474

      And you can make every single movie become a political discussion, like OMG Lady Bird has a female director and writer and no female director + writer + female lead film in 1 whole movie won BP. Hurt Locker only had a female director but a male writer and lead. There I made it become a political/social message for female empowerment to vote for Lady Bird, because Shape of Water and 3b have female leads but MALE director and WRITERS and since we are on a witch hunt and ALL MEN IN HOLLYWOOD ARE BAD.

    I’m not saying lady bird doesn’t have a shot at bp, I’m actually rooting for lady bird. I am simply stating how I think the 2018 bp race will shape up.

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    Miles
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    #1202421480

    Here’s my ranking in order of likeliest to win:

    1. Three Billboards
    2. The Post
    3. Lady Bird
    4. Call Me By Your Name
    5. The Shape of Water

    Not that long ago I would have said that TSOW is going to win but it seems like TSOW being overtaken in buzz by 3BOEM, LB, and CMBYN. I’m not sure how it will hold up in the months to come because it’s buzz seems to be declining rather than building like these other films.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1202421496

    1. The Post
    2. Dunkirk
    3. Call Me By Your Name
    4. The Florida Project
    5. The Shape of Water
    6. Lady Bird
    7. Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
    8. Get Out
    9. Darkest Hour
    10. Mudbound

    The Post is Spielberg, Streep and Hanks; it has neoliberal (anti-Trump, anti-Republican) politics; it’s justice and being right; historical; well-crafted without offensive qualities. I am not saying it deserves to win but I have a strong feeling it will… unlike last year, I don’t see any of the smaller movies having enough passion voters to put it on top (although they will certainly get passion votes, I believe they will be split among several different films, whereas last year it was a two-picture race) and so much of what happened last year was backlash against La La Land (sigh).

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    Miles
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    #1202421505

    I agree that since there is no clear frontrunner there will not be a designated passion film. I have Three Billboards in as of now because it’s building momentum but once The Post officially arrives I could see it stopping 3BOEM in it’s tracks.

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    Bee
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    #1202421537

    Three Billboards is the most likely as of now but there is no clear frontrunner. The Shape of Water, The Post, CMBYN, Dunkirk and maybe Lady Bird (even though I don’t see it winning at all) also have reasons for why they would win. But how they do in the guilds determines their status.

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    JackO
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    #1202421545

    I think Lady Bird is underestimated by the experts at Gold Derby

    Agreed. 163 straight positive reviews. No one hates it. Like every other supposed frontrunner has haters. And it’s got the hook of being female led in all the most important aspects. Very possible it wins Actress/Supporting Actress/Screenplay on way to BP.

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    Tyler The Awesome Guy
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    #1202422228

    So many people are forgetting that Call Me by Your Name is a movie where a kid falls in love with an adult. Forget the LGBT stuff which they are clearly fine with because Moonlight won (although I still consider that win a fluke), this story may be very uncomfortable for some of the more conservative voters. It will undoubtedly be nominated unless something screwy happens, but I do not think it’s as clear of a frontrunner as 99% of people think.

    May the best of your todays be the worst of your tomorrows.

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    Honey
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    #1202422233

    So many people are forgetting that Call Me by Your Name is a movie where a kid falls in love with an adult. Forget the LGBT stuff which they are clearly fine with because Moonlight won (although I still consider that win a fluke), this story may be very uncomfortable for some of the more conservative voters. It will undoubtedly be nominated unless something screwy happens, but I do not think it’s as clear of a frontrunner as 99% of people think.

    Guess we found the posters behind the 2 rotten reviews on RT. The other being Teridax

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    Noah Arlington
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    #1202422257

    So many people are forgetting that Call Me by Your Name is a movie where a kid falls in love with an adult. Forget the LGBT stuff which they are clearly fine with because Moonlight won (although I still consider that win a fluke), this story may be very uncomfortable for some of the more conservative voters. It will undoubtedly be nominated unless something screwy happens, but I do not think it’s as clear of a frontrunner as 99% of people think.

    Didn’t the Academy “reorganize” after the #OscarsSoWhite 2 years in a row? I don’t see how Moonlight winning is a fluke. In fact, I think Moonlight’s win tells us how little influence conservative voters now have. Also, if you read the book or seen the film, you would know Elio isn’t a “kid”. ffs this isn’t Lolita.

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    Tyler The Awesome Guy
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    #1202422271

    The #OscarsSoWhite argument does not really hold water for CMBYN since the cast is almost completely white. I mean that “Moonlight” is a fluke because another black/LGBT film will probably not win Best Picture again for a while. Not being homophobic, being honest. Just because they both start with an “H” does not make them the same.

    Also, I just looked it up, Elio is 17, which makes him a minor. The argument still stands bro.

    And I have not seen the film yet so I have no opinion on it to call it Fresh/Rotten. And I doubt that my movie reviews would have enough significance to be considered among the top critics on RT, but I would be honoured if that was the case.

    May the best of your todays be the worst of your tomorrows.

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    Honey
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    #1202422286

    Adrien Brody/Timothy Hutton 2.0 already won this year with best MC/RT reviewed movies and also #1 and #2 Best PTA $$ for 2017

    And hes barely started sweeping the critics awards. Another 2>60 year incoming?

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