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Who is the Best Picture Front-Runner?

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    Wigseau
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    I think there’s no clear frontrunner, but I think Call Me by Your Name and Three Billboards are tied in the pole position. Dunkirk and The Shape of Water may be the next ones and then films like I Tonya, The Florida Project and The Post if it is a good movie.

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    pacinofan
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    The #OscarsSoWhite argument does not really hold water for CMBYN since the cast is almost completely white. I mean that “Moonlight” is a fluke because another black/LGBT film will probably not win Best Picture again for a while. Not being homophobic, being honest. Just because they both start with an “H” does not make them the same.

    Also, I just looked it up, Elio is 17, which makes him a minor. The argument still stands bro.

    And I have not seen the film yet so I have no opinion on it to call it Fresh/Rotten. And I doubt that my movie reviews would have enough significance to be considered among the top critics on RT, but I would be honoured if that was the case.

    Elio would be a minor in America. But he wasn’t in America, he is in Italy, where the age of consent is 16.

    In most of the United States the age of sexual consent is 16 or 17 rather than 18.

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    Noah Arlington
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    The #OscarsSoWhite argument does not really hold water for CMBYN since the cast is almost completely white. I mean that “Moonlight” is a fluke because another black/LGBT film will probably not win Best Picture again for a while. Not being homophobic, being honest. Just because they both start with an “H” does not make them the same. Also, I just looked it up, Elio is 17, which makes him a minor. The argument still stands bro. And I have not seen the film yet so I have no opinion on it to call it Fresh/Rotten. And I doubt that my movie reviews would have enough significance to be considered among the top critics on RT, but I would be honoured if that was the case.

    What are you talking about? Honestly, I have no idea. Your reply made no sense whatsoever. This has to be a troll…

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    megdalinin
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    The Post will win next year

     

     

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    Cinephile
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    We are only into few awards shows/nominations and already I see there’s a divide between the “frontrunners” . The Shape of Water, Three Billboards, Darkest Hour and the Florida Project are slipping behind while Get Out and Call Me By Your Name are starting to take the lead. I think we’ve already got a pretty solid idea of what films will be nominated for bp for now. But, in regards to what could win,  I think it all comes down to the sag ensemble nom. Interestingly, the frontrunners of the “frontrunners”: Get Out and CMBYN  are the ones that are least likely to get a slot in the immensely competitive category.

    My predictions for Sag Ensemble:

    Locks:
    – The Post
    Likely:
    – Three Billboards Outside Missouri
    – Call Me By Your Name
    – Mudbound
    Fighting for the Last slot:
    – Dunkirk
    – Lady Bird
    – The Shape of Water
    – Darkest Hour

    Out of CMBYN and Get Out I see CMBYN maybe sneaking a sag ensemble nomination. Sony Classics is really pushing for it to be seen as an ensemble cast…. they chose to show Michael Stulhbarg in all three clips shown at the Gotham awards ( the monologue scene shown twice! advertising at its best). Also, I think people are underestimating how much the industry loves Armie ( I see him taking the GG) hence if Stulhbarg can sustain and build more momentum. CMBYN is gonna be a very big threat come Oscar time.

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    Joe Burns
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    I cannot think of another year where I was this conflicted about the potential winner this late in November.

    I was pretty certain the winner was ‘Three Billboards’, but after seeing how much it under-performed at the Independent Spirit awards, I grew a little concerned.

    Most prediction sites/forums have Dunkirk at the top as a shoe-in, which makes sense as far as the nomination goes, but I just do not see it as a winner. I would love to get your thoughts on this.

    Presently, I think ‘Three Billboards’ might still have it, but I could see ‘CMBYN’ or ‘Mudbound’ spoiling. SAG is really going to help me figure this one out, especially if ‘Billboards’ along with ‘The Post’ or ‘Dunkirk’ miss.

    I really do not see ‘Shape of Water’, ‘Lady Bird’ or ‘Darkest Hour’ taking it either, but I think they are all probably going to get nominated (I am on the fence about Lady Bird).

    Again, please let me know your thoughts. Am I undervaluing someone? If I had to rank the perspective nominees in terms of my opinion on the likelihood of winning, it would follow:

    1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri- it has the momentum, smart, timely, and funny. It may have the right balance, but I think it might lack that X factor that a best picture winner has.
    2. Call Me By Your Name- I think given the social climate right now this might be a strange choice for the Academy, but the reviews have been glowing and incredibly positive (almost as much as La La Land) and the film seems to be unaffected by it at this point so I am leaving it in.
    3. Mudbound- It’s getting attention from ensemble considerations- which makes sense- but can Netflix run a campaign? Outside of screenplay and ensemble nominations does this even make sense? I think it will pick up as the months progress, but I am less confident in Netflix than the film itself. Take that as you will.
    4. The Post- Unless it goes full ‘Spotlight’ or blows my mind I am taking this with a grain of salt. From what I have read, this film had some serious problems in development. Is it this year’s ‘Silence’?
    5. Lady Bird- I think I misjudged this. It is building strength very quickly, and it could become a force to reckon with.
    6. Dunkirk- I need to watch it again, because I was not sold, and I am a huge Christopher Nolan fan. I still do not think it is winning (and I don’t think it deserves to win either).
    7. Darkest Hour- Critics love it. Audiences are mixed at best? Not winning.
    8. Get Out- I would love it so much if a truly fun movie got picked. Is it too mainstream?
    9. The Shape of Water- There is a ton of praise- and many think it is the number one or two- but it might be a little too weird for a win. I have not seen it yet, so I do not want to cast judgment too prematurely. I am mostly certain it will be nominated.

    You’ve never been incredibly conflicted about who’s the frontrunner at this point? Most of the time it isn’t clear at this stage of the season.

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    Joe Burns
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    Lets narrow the race: The winner for best original screenplay will win best picture.

    CMBYN will win adapted, but doesn’t seem like the BP winner. It won’t get very probably best film editing and would have max 5 nods. If it surpasses this two expectations, count it as best picture winner.

    Screenplay is still the best indicator for the best film.

    The Artist didn’t win because it was silent, which would have been a very strange win, but it still got nod.

    So it could be between 3 Billboards and Shape of Water. Followed by Get Out & The Post. Lady Bird and Florida Project may have a chance. Lets see how this evolves.

    Every year is different- Relying on statistics alone is not a good indicator of an outcome. Plenty of films have won Best Picture without a screenplay win: Titanic, The English Patient, Gladiator, Chicago, Million Dollar Baby, The Artist, Braveheart, Unforgiven, Platoon, Rocky, The Deer Hunter, Oliver!, The Sound Of Music, West Side Story, My Fair Lady, Lawrence Of Arabia, Ben Hur, All The King’s Men, Hamlet,Gentleman’s Agreement How Green Was My Valley, Rebecca, ect.

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    kbfr12
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    The Post or Dunkirk, with Three Billboards and Call Me By Your Name behind it. It’s hard to get a good look at this race, but this is around the point where things will start to shape into a narrative.

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    Foolio
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    In terms of buzz, positive publicity, exposure and precursor love, I would say CMBYN is our current front runner, followed by Get Out, Lady Bird and The Post, in that order.

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    vinny
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    I’m thinking “CMBYN” or “Lady Bird” but the Post looks like something to watch out for.

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    nlly9116
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    I feel like The Post is. It’s non-controversial and feels like the movie of the moment considering everything going on with politics and journalism.

    It should be CMBYN but I think it’s too “scandalous” to win.

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    Paul Hardister
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    Interesting to note that Get Out and Call Me By Your Name have the most Best Picture nominations so far: Gotham, Spirits, NBR, and now these Satellite Awards. (Dunkirk and The Post don’t qualify for the indie awards obviously.)

    Even though, I’m going with Lady Bird at the moment. It’s impressive what Get Out and Call Me By Your Name have accomplished.

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    VanRoberts
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    The Post will win best picture. Hollywood will not be able to help themselves.

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