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January 25, 2017 at 10:41 am #1201995033
Our annual post-nominations tradition continues! Which of the current crop of newly minted Oscar nominees will return in the future? Historically, the percentage of returning nominees isn’t as high as you might think, which I would guess makes the recognition that much more special in most cases.
Offer your lists for the 20 acting nominees and director (if you like)!January 25, 2017 at 10:47 am #1201995036
Are we solely speculating on first time nominees?January 25, 2017 at 11:10 am #1201995055
People that won’t make it again:
Octavia SpencerJanuary 25, 2017 at 11:28 am #1201995067
I can see every actor nominated again apart from Mortensen, Patel, Negga and Hedges. Spencer had a great performance in Fruitvale Station- if she had another one of those in the next few years she could easily tag along as a filler nominee. Negga could conceivably be nominated again but she strikes me as someone like Gugu Mbatha-Raw who is consistent but never exposed enough to get major traction stateside.
For director, I see everyone nominated again, but Mel Gibson/Barry Jenkins being the least likely.January 25, 2017 at 11:38 am #1201995071
Villeneuve for sureJanuary 25, 2017 at 11:42 am #1201995076
I could see all the Lead Actor nominees returning in the future, minus maybe Mortenson (who lucked into this nomination) and Affleck (if the allegations against him really flare up). Portman, Stone and Streep will definitely return. Huppert probably will not. Negga is up in the air, depending on choice of projects. Bridges and Shannon will likely be nominated again. Patel definitely can get nominated again, but he’ll need worthy projects and considering the timeframe between “Slumdog” and “Lion,” it’s no guarantee that this nomination will open doors for him. Ali’s star looks to be on the rise with a likely win this year, but I could see him pivoting toward more commercial fare. He’s a maybe. Hedges will need strong projects in the next few years to keep him relevant if he wants to get back in the race ever again. I would reserve judgement until finding out what his post-“Manchester” projects are. Davis and Williams are guaranteed to be nominated again. Harris is a possibility if she gets a good role in a high-profile project and her celebrity rises. The same goes for Kidman, although minus the celebrity part. Spencer doesn’t seem likely, although I suppose not many expected her to land a second nomination after her win. Chazelle and Jenkins seem like they’ll absolutely make it back in the directing race. Gibson probably wouldn’t have another comeback. Villeneuve seems like a good bet if he sticks with projects like “Arrival” that ride the line of mainstream and indie. Lonergan can get back in if he has a good, buzzy project but I don’t know.January 25, 2017 at 11:44 am #1201995079
Hedges is the new Joel Osment. One and done. Won’t land big gigs with that weird look.
Patel needs to win to continue being relevant. Otherwise he’ll continue to get typecast in weepy Indian family dramas. Even if he wins probs.
Spencer, surprisingly seems like has at least one other supporting nom in her future. She’s too castable for certain type of roles.
Harris doesn’t have the indie looks, she will continue her career in blockbusters. Shannon, Williams, Garfield %100 returning in near future.January 25, 2017 at 11:52 am #1201995088
People that won’t make it again:
Ageism is less of a concern for male actors. Were Ali not a favorite to win the category Bridges would be locked to collect his second Oscar. Mortensen is equivalent to Tilda Swinton in that their movie choices prevents them from more nominations despite how deserving they are in atypical fare.January 25, 2017 at 11:59 am #1201995092
Except for Casey Affleck, Ruth Negga, Isabelle Huppert, Naomie Harris, Lucas Hedges and Mahershala Ali all of them will probably be nominated again in the near future.
The first ones to be nominated again will be Viola Davis, Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone Michelle Williams and Meryl Streep, at least three of whom I can see coming back as soon as next year.January 25, 2017 at 12:12 pm #1201995108
People never learn…In a couple of years, Katie Holmes could have an Oscar and Michelle Williams is still “just” a nominee. You never know…
I believe Spencer was in a lot of people’s list in 2012 when this thread came around. So there you go… (It’s incredible that somebody actually mentioned her in this thread already).
Let’s not pretend Amy Adams wouldn’t have been on this list in 2006 because nobody knew her or nobody saw Junebug at the time. Or Jennifer Lawrence in 2011 because she was just a kid. And look where we are…
Of those mentioned that supposedly won’t get nominated again…
Ruth Negga is 35 years old. Why wouldn’t she be back? I’m guessing somebody like say, Janet McTeer, could’ve been mentioned in a thread like this in 2000, because we don’t know her, we don’t know what she’s capable of, we think she won’t get roles, she’s english…and she’s a double nominee now.
Octavia Spencer…According to many of you she should’ve gotten one for Fruitvale Station 2-3 years ago. So she’s getting roles, she’s loved enough to get this not entirely deserving nomination, she can get more for this same role she usually plays. I mean, there’s a picture going around of Viola Davis being congratulated for her three nods, making history, and they show her three roles side by side. She looks the same in all of them, she kind of gave the same performance in all three and got nominations for them. Why not Spencer and her sassy strong black woman? And that’s just IF she gets nominated again for kind of the same part. She might get something else in the future, you never know.
Bridges won in 2009 and got nominated again in 2010. Six years later he’s here for basically being Jeff Bridges yet again. He’s good enough, famous enough, loved enough, legend enough. Unless something bad happens to him, he’ll last another 6 years and can be nominated again. “Too old” is not a problem here.
Viggo Mortensen’s problem is not that he’s to old, well, he is, but he’s not really. He just doesn’t seem interested in working so much, he’s said it himself. But if he managed to get this one for this movie, he’ll get one again if he wants to.
Mahershala Ali? Common. He can be back.
Anyway. Lucas Hedges seems like an obvious choice and Dev Patel for race issues might be included. But again, YOU NEVER KNOW!.. That weepy indian family drama somebody mentioned could het him an Oscar.January 25, 2017 at 12:21 pm #1201995122
Relative newcomers who I think will definitely get new nominations based on promise in projects other than the ones they’ve been nominated for: Ruth Negga, Naomie Harris, Mahershala Ali.
Will not: Dev Patel, Lucas Hedges, Andrew Garfield
Previous nominees like Viola Davis, Denzel Washington, Meryl Streep, Octavia Spencer, Michael Shannon, Michelle Williams, Emma Stone, Ryan Gosling will get future nominations too. Probably not: Isabelle Huppert (even though she’s my choice to win this year and is superb).
I’m surprised at the skepticism regarding Octavia Spencer. She’s getting a little typecast, yes, but she was not playing a trope by any measure in Hidden Figures (that was the whole bloody point), and I see a lot more awesome roles for her in the future. Ruth Negga is a newcomer with so much promise (you must not have seen Preacher or her other films) that she’s definitely poised to be an ingenue who will reap multiple nominations in the future. Hell, most people didn’t think she’d get one this year either and she’s the only one from Loving.January 25, 2017 at 1:24 pm #1201995210
This is a really inane exercise. Everyone can come back. We have no idea what roles any of these actors any of these people will play, which directors or casting agents are considering them for which role in which yet-to-be-realized film. And plenty of people expected to get sophomore nods over the years have not. So this could be Lucas Hedges’ sole film of note, or he could be a quirky indie star on the rise. Who the fuck knows?January 25, 2017 at 1:58 pm #1201995259
My predictions, running down the list.
Villeneuve – Yes, almost certainly
Gibson – Probably
Chazelle – For sure
Lonergan – Maybe, but I don’t think so
Jenkins – I hope so, but I have a sinking feeling he won’t come back
Stone – Yes, especially if she doesn’t win this year
Portman – Probably
Negga – If she chooses the right roles, yes. Let’s hope she fired whoever told her to do “Warcraft”
Streep – Literally already on their ballots
Huppert – Probably not
Affleck – I don’t think so. Especially if he wins this year, there’s going to be some backlash. He really did well with MbtS, but I don’t think he has a lot of Oscar-caliber roles in his future.
Garfield – Yes
Gosling – Yes
Mortenson – I doubt it
Washington – Yes
Davis – Yes
Harris – Probably
Kidman – Maybe, maybe not
Spencer – Yes
Williams – Yes
Ali – Yes
Bridges – Possibly
Hedges – He needs to fight to stay relevant after he loses or we’ll never hear his name here again. It all depends on his choices
Patel – Probably. He needs a good dramatic role that doesn’t relate to his heritage for people to notice his name, and he’ll probably need a blockbuster title to make him more famous and get that role
Shannon – AbsolutelyRiley (the normal one, not the one who won the predictions contest)ParticipantJanuary 25, 2017 at 3:24 pm #1201995394
Shannon (national treasure)
Villeneuve (would predict for a future nomination even if my predicted snub had come true)
Davis (would be higher if roles were more readily available)
Kidman (getting to that age, but she chooses interesting projects)
Patel (male performance of the year)
Hedges (many years ahead of him)
Huppert (reeks of one-and-done foreigner, but she has a Michael Haneke movie out next year, so maybe she can maintain momentum)
Affleck (has momentum this year, but too controversial to start up again)
Spencer (proved me wrong already though)
Ali (miracle that he got in this year)
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