January 7, 2020 at 3:17 am #1203267883
Now the major precursor nominations are in I think it’s fair to discuss. Please take my “out of nowhere” description with a grain of salt. There seem to be 4 “locks” in most acting categories, with many fighting for 5th place. However it wouldn’t surprise me to see some who’ve hit the precursors to be snubbed completely in favour of a surprise passion pick. Who do you consider this year and why?
For example of what I’m talking about, only last year we had Aparicio and De Tavira. I acknowledge their film was a major vehicle, but did they have any precursor support except a Critics Choice nomination? Both were major surprises. Even Willem Dafoe broke in with little precursor support. Who will we be surprised by on Oscar nominations day? Or who would you like to see, and who to replace?
Almodovar for Best Director/Picture, Etxeandia/Sbaraglia/Cruz in Supporting
Buñuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles in Animated
Vitalina Varela, Vitalina Varela (Actress)
Andrea Riseborough, Karim Saleh, Possessor/Luxor (Actress, Actor)
Rosamund Pike, Peter Dinklage, I Care a Lot (Actress, Supporting Actor)
Jim Broadbent, Helen Mirren, The Duke (Actor, Supporting Actress)
Sophia Loren, Abril Zamora, The Life Ahead (Actress, Supporting Actress)
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (Actress)January 7, 2020 at 3:18 am #1203267884This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.January 7, 2020 at 4:13 am #1203267924
I’d maybe be looking at Pain & Glory or Portrait of a Lady on Fire for this, specifically sneaking into Best Director or Screenplay. I’m very hesitant to suggest either will happen, as Pawlikowski at least had a BAFTA nod to his name, but I could see it, specifically for Pain & Glory.January 7, 2020 at 4:56 am #1203267966
I don’t know if Kathy Bates would be considered out of nowhere but I think it would be awesome if she got in at the Oscars.January 7, 2020 at 4:58 am #1203267970
Portrait of a Lady on Fire or The Lighthouse in cinematography. Perhaps, Song Kang Ho or Zhao Shuzhen in a supporting category.January 7, 2020 at 4:58 am #1203267972
Zhao Shuzhen in Supporting ActressJanuary 7, 2020 at 5:25 am #1203267995
George MacKay in Best Actor or Song Kang-ho in Best Supporting Actor comes to mind.January 7, 2020 at 6:00 am #1203268029
Zhao Shuzhen strikes me as the kind of nominee that can get in with only a BFCA nomination. I can see her being a passion pick by just enough voters placing her at number one on their ballots to get in.
Song Kang-ho could get in if the Actor’s branch wants to nominate someone from Parasite.January 7, 2020 at 6:27 am #1203268068
It’s not exactly out of nowhere but I’m almost 100% sure Oscars will put Zhao Shuzhen in best supporting. I think Florence Pugh will appear in there as well.
Truly out of nowhere – I can see the academy putting the lighthouse in a few more categories than expected.January 7, 2020 at 6:35 am #1203268089
If somebody could make a list of the most discussed people on GoldDerby this season, Shuzhen would be there. She’s been a topic of discussion for months. How is that “out of nowhere”? Regardless of her being snubbed almost everywhere. And I’ve been predicting Song for a while, many others have too.
There will be no “out of nowhere” nominee this year in the top races. There are way too many contenders for each category for Laura Dern to suddenly show up for Wild.
Sure, there could be a Caleb Deschanel nom like last year, but in the acting races? No.
That George McKay nomination somebody mentioned is what “out of nowhere” is about. But it won’t happen, of course.January 7, 2020 at 6:48 am #1203268106
Maybe Margot Robbie gets nominated for Once Upon a Time instead of Bombshell. I mean she did get a BAFTA nomination for both films.January 7, 2020 at 10:30 am #1203268781
I think there’s a chance Adam Sandler gets a surprise Best Actor nom. Not exactly out of nowhere since he did get nominated at CC, but he’s been missing everywhere else so it would be a surprise.
If a previously completely unrecognized (by major precursors) performance gets in, it’ll be someone from Parasite.January 7, 2020 at 10:52 am #1203268878
Someone from the cast of Knives Out in any of the acting categories, particularly De Armas. If it overperforms in other categories and Lupita/Erivo/Awkwafina cancel one each other due to being that unclear wildcard I wouldn´t rule it out.
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