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Who Will Get Nominated for the Best Director Oscar and Who Won't?

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  • Aryan Varma
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    The DGA has unveiled their nominees for their Best Director Award. The nominees are:

    Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
    Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
    Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
    Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
    Jordan Peele – Get Out

    Throughout this decade, thus far, there is always one DGA nominee who isn’t nominated for an Oscar.

    In 2010, Christopher Nolan (Inception) was swapped for The Coen Brothers (True Grit).

    In 2011, David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) was swapped for Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life).

    In 2012, three DGA nominees weren’t nominated for the Oscar: DGA’s winner Ben Affleck (Argo), Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty), and Tom Hooper (Les Misérables). They were replaced by Michael Haneke (Amour), Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild), and David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook).

    In 2013, Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips) was swapped for Alexander Payne (Nebraska).

    In 2014, Clint Eastwood (American Sniper) was swapped for Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher).

    In 2015, Ridley Scott (The Martian) was swapped for Lenny Abrahamson (Room).

    In 2016, Garth Davis (Lion) was swapped for Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge).

    It isn’t unheard of for all the DGA nominees to get nominated for the Oscar, but that hasn’t ever happened this decade.

    I’m interested in knowing your thoughts on this. Do any of you think that this will be the first year in this decade that all the DGA nominees get Oscar nominations? If not, who do you think will be replaced, and who will their replacement be?

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    TheRedBoy
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    Sorkin could take a slot for Molly’s Game, though he was technically nominated by DGA in the first-time feature category.

    But I suppose Guadagnino could also sneak in, particularly if CMBYN somehow manages nominations for Cinematography and/or Editing.

    I’m not sure who’s most in danger of being replaced, though. Perhaps Peele or Nolan?

    • This reply was modified 8 months, 2 weeks ago by  TheRedBoy.
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    Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)
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    I think that Peele may the most vulnerable. It’s not because his direction isn’t magnificent, but rather because the Best Director category is so competitive this year.

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    Mateo Prigue
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    I think Gerwig, Del Toro, McDonagh and Nolan are locks. Peele could be replaced for Guadagnino, and I think Spielberg is the weakest one, The Post is very underperforming. And Call Me By Your Name has won attention and more probabilities for Guadagnino thanks to the BAFTAs.

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    Pollo crudo
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    If this happens I think Peele could be swapped for Guadagnino.

    There’s also this trend to nominate at the Oscars someone not nominated for something important before like Abrahamson, Gibson or Zeitlin.

    This year could be Baker or PTA.

    Spielberg may be dead.

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    Mateo Prigue
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    Denis Villeneuve could sneak in too thanks to the technical awards that Blade Runner 2049 will take.

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    AwardsConnect
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    I think only del Toro and McDonagh are truly safe (yes, even Nolan can be snubbed). That said, odds are, I’ll wind up predicting the same five for Oscar nominations morning.

    For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis, please visit me at The Awards Connection!

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    24fanatic
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    #1202464361

    Christopher Nolan has been snubbed a number of times… would it really be a surprise if he was snubbed again???

    Honestly, the two most vulnerable directors are Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele. Unfortunately for Jordan, Greta sits in a prettier spot above him because of the #metoo movement. Personally, I’d love to see both snubbed in favor of Dee Rees for Mudbound.

    I honestly can’t see Luca Guadagnino being left off of the Best Director line-up at the Oscars. This is precisely the type of film the Academy goes for in its Best Director category.

    Sean Baker would be great, but The Florida Project seems to be forgotten a bit.

    DREAM LINE-UP:
    Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
    Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
    Luca Guadagnino – Call Me By Your Name
    Dee Rees – Mudbound
    Sean Baker – The Florida Project

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    Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)
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    I think only del Toro and McDonagh are truly safe (yes, even Nolan can be snubbed). That said, odds are, I’ll wind up predicting the same five for Oscar nominations morning.

    For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis, please visit me at The Awards Connection!

    I want to say that Gerwig is a lock, but the GG and BAFTA snubs are giving me pause.

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    Peaceful Resolution
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    Gerwig is the most vulnerable. As popular as her movie is she hasn’t been shown the same kind of consistency her male competitors have with the precursors.

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    Honey
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    I suspect Peele is going to miss just cuz he missed GG/BAFTA/AACTA and his film missed BP as well in the latter 2

    But since 1980, they’ve only gotten BD 5/5 in 1998,  2005, 2009 so i don’t know why anyone would be taking a chance of predicting the DGA lineup 5/5 when there’s a big chance it won’t match and might as well guess someone else then just settle with 4/5  right most likely.

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    TheRedBoy
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    Personally, I’d love to see both snubbed in favor of Dee Rees for Mudbound.

    Oh my god. Yes.

    I think Mudbound would’ve been a much bigger player if it had come from a more traditional distributor than Netflix. It’s awful how little recognition Rees and Mitchell have gotten in particular.

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    Foolio
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    Personally, I’d love to see both snubbed in favor of Dee Rees for Mudbound.

    Oh my god. Yes.

    I think Mudbound would’ve been a much bigger player if it had come from a more traditional distributor than Netflix. It’s awful how little recognition Rees and Mitchell have gotten in particular.

    Preach.

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    EmmyWinner
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    Still not conviced both Gerwig and Peele will make the final 5…

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    dorseyhorsey
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    This field was my Oscar lineup 5/5 so a) yay me and b) now I’m second guessing myself because there’s always a swap.

    The Post is toast but Guadagnino might be able to wiggle his way in somehow…

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