Home Forums Movies Who wins Best Original Screenplay?

Who wins Best Original Screenplay?

CREATE A NEW TOPIC
CREATE A NEW POLL
Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 160 total)
Created
8 months ago
Last Reply
7 months ago
159
replies
19923
views
59
users
Teridax
24
Stegeo
12
Riley
10
  • GMonty777
    Participant
    Joined:
    Feb 23rd, 2014
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202481755

    In the last 17 years, only Gladiator (2000), Chicago (2002), Million Dollar Baby (2004), and The Artist (2011) won Best Picture without a screenplay win. Before that, you had Titanic (1997), The English Patient (1996), and Braveheart (1995). So when making your prediction, it should be kept in mind that winner here has a great shot at winning Best Picture.

    GET OUT – Won the Critics Choice, WGA, and 20 critics circle wins.

    LADY BIRD – Won 7 critics circle Best Screenplay trophies.

    THREE BILLBOARDS – Won 6 critics circle Best Screenplay awards, the BAFTA, and the Globe.

    THE SHAPE OF WATER – Just won the St. Louis Film Critics screenplay award.

    Interesting stats:

    The Golden Globes has actually predicted the Screenplay winner 12 of the last 17 years. In the last 27 years, it’s 20/27.

    If we look at the Critics Choice awards, the original screenplay winner has matched up 7/8 times. Since 2009, they have separated the categories into original and adapted.

    It’s pretty obvious to me, this one is between Get Out and Three Billboards. I suspect that the WGAs are going to go for Get Out, and the BAFTAs are going for Three Billboards.

    • This topic was modified 7 months, 1 week ago by  GMonty777.
    Reply
    Jason Travis
    Participant
    Joined:
    May 20th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202481765

    This is actually a REALLY tough category to call. I would easily say Get Out, but further analysis tells me it could be literally ANY of them. I’m leaning towards Three Billboards. It seems to have that “importance” that more voters might warm up to more then Get Out’s message.

    There’s also the business of Lady Bird, and if the academy wants to give this movie anything this is it’s best shot (since Laurie Metcalf seems to be dead in the water unless an upset occurs). Also a way to honor Gerwig.

    I don’t see Shape of Water winning.

    Follow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
    13K Subscribers, 29 Million Views

    FYC: Derbyite of the Year, 2017

    ReplyCopy URL
    GMonty777
    Participant
    Joined:
    Feb 23rd, 2014
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202481821

    This is actually a REALLY tough category to call. I would easily say Get Out, but further analysis tells me it could be literally ANY of them. I’m leaning towards Three Billboards. It seems to have that “importance” that more voters might warm up to more then Get Out’s message.

    There’s also the business of Lady Bird, and if the academy wants to give this movie anything this is it’s best shot (since Laurie Metcalf seems to be dead in the water unless an upset occurs). Also a way to honor Gerwig.

    I don’t see Shape of Water winning.

    Why do you they have to give Lady Bird anything?

    Smart money is on Get Out or Three Billboards. Both have predictor momentum behind them.

    TSOW is very much in play, seeing as how it’s a Best Picture front-runner.

    ReplyCopy URL
    JackO
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jun 2nd, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202481871

    There is no such thing as “predictor momentum”. La La Land had all the “predictor momentum” in the world and still lost BP and lost screenplay. To think that same fate can’t happen to Three Billboards is pure ignorance.

    ReplyCopy URL
    GMonty777
    Participant
    Joined:
    Feb 23rd, 2014
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202482247

    There is no such thing as “predictor momentum”. La La Land had all the “predictor momentum” in the world and still lost BP and lost screenplay. To think that same fate can’t happen to Three Billboards is pure ignorance.

    Not sure if I understand.

    Manchester By the Sea won the BAFTA and Critics Choice. It had momentum to win Original Screenplay. Ditto for LLL for screenplay.

    The point here is that both Get Out and Three Billboards have the best shot at screenplay. Lets see what the WGA and BAFTAs have to say.

    ReplyCopy URL
    Noah Arlington
    Participant
    Joined:
    Nov 24th, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202482252

    I’m torn between Greta and Jordan. I think it’ll come down to them two but in the end I predict…Greta winning.

    ReplyCopy URL
    Zach Lozano
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 9th, 2012
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202482611

    I think Get Out or Lady Bird will win as this category is the best chance for them to honor either film.

    ReplyCopy URL
    Jays
    Participant
    Joined:
    Dec 15th, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202482622

    I hate when people say the Academy will give it to a certain film because that’s its way of rewarding it lol. I don’t think when voters vote, they keep in mind “oh let me vote for Lady Bird here because I want to reward it somehow.”

    ReplyCopy URL
    Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)
    Participant
    Joined:
    Nov 18th, 2012
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202482624

    I think that Three Billboards will likely win at the BAFTAs, while the WGA race is still too close to call between Lady Bird and Get Out. For the Oscars, I’m predicting Get Out, but that could change.

    ReplyCopy URL
    Filmatelist
    Participant
    Joined:
    Nov 19th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202482837

    I hate when people say the Academy will give it to a certain film because that’s its way of rewarding it lol. I don’t think when voters vote, they keep in mind “oh let me vote for Lady Bird here because I want to reward it somehow.”

    Exactly. Oscar history is littered with film titles that got a ton of nods but were awarded zilchola. Pundits may think that way but voters generally don’t. If they like a film, they’ll vote for it if it’s not against a film they like even more.

    Sometimes the illusion of “awarding it something” emerges because a title that’s up against harsh competition in some categories has a much easier path in another. That’s not the voters behaving strategically; that’s just playing the odds. HER, MIDNIGHT IN PARIS, JUNO, LOST IN TRANSLATION and GOSFORD PARK didn’t win here because the Academy wanted to throw each Best Picture nominee a token bone. They won because the films they were losing to elsewhere weren’t a factor anymore.

    • This reply was modified 7 months, 4 weeks ago by  Filmatelist.
    ReplyCopy URL
    rodman
    Participant
    Joined:
    Feb 12th, 2013
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202482896

    This is one of the most difficult categories to predict for me. Will all female voters vote for Ladybird? Get Out beat it at critics choice and Three Boards beat them both at GG. If Shape of Water wins best pic does it take Screenplay as well? I believe this is going to be a category that makes or breaks a Oscar office pool.

    ReplyCopy URL
    TheRedBoy
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 22nd, 2013
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202482918

    This is a painfully unpredictable category this year, which really throws a wrench in the Best Picture race as well.

    But right now I think that Get Out has the best chance of winning Best Picture and Original Screenplay. The other top contenders are strong in one category or the other; Get Out seems strong in both.

    ReplyCopy URL
    FreemanGriffin
    Participant
    Joined:
    Feb 19th, 2012
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202482925

    The Big Sick is the only one imo that can’t win – it is going to go to one of the four BP nominees and this is the hardest category to predict. I don’t even believe that precursors will have anything to do with the outcome; it will be the mood of the academy that will decide it. I am predicting Greta Gerwig wins for Lady Bird, because I think that choice best reflects the mood fo the academy at the moment. It’s going to be a while before we find out…

    ReplyCopy URL
    k
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jul 17th, 2016
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202483380

    If  3BB is the BP winner, it’ll win screenplay

    If Shape wins BP, WGA winner (Get Out or Lady Bird presumably) will prevail.

    ReplyCopy URL
    Goldie Romero
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 21st, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202483397

    Get Out is not the best screenplay…not even close.  But voters seem to find appeal in this poorly directed, poorly acted and produced movie for its supposedly bold statement on race.

    • This reply was modified 7 months, 4 weeks ago by  Goldie Romero.
    ReplyCopy URL
Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 160 total)

You must be logged in to reply to this topic.

Similar Topics
Holysmokes - Sep 25, 2018
Movies
ENGLAND - Sep 25, 2018
Movies
Chris B... - Sep 22, 2018
Movies